South West & Central Southern Regional Discussion 2nd August 2013 >

[Guest William Grimsley]

If the models are correct, then we will have plenty of thunder potential by bank holiday weekend to look forward to.

 

Any potential we had today for anything convective would be nothing in comparison.

Yes, it looks very active next weekend.

Looks like I'm faced with another weekend of possibly rained off outdoor activities - really fed up with this summer now!

Stop moaning, it's nothing like 2012!

[MP-R]

Yes, it looks very active next weekend.

Stop moaning, it's nothing like 2012!

 

Overall correct, but August last year was both a lot wetter but also sunnier than this August so far in this neck of the woods. 

 

You've also just reminded me that I got caught in a brilliant thunderstorm cycling from Bristol to Bath on the Bank Holiday weekend last August.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Nice Evening...Sun is out.19.3c. Only a light breeze.

[Argyle1980]

We had a couple of small showers here in the early hours but after that its been a nice day with good amounts of sunshine!

Have a lovely evening people :-) .

[AWD]

Tomorrow's forecast map;

Another sunny day for many of us, with perhaps just a little more convective cloud around.

The area in red could be the exception however, with a scattering of showers developing through the day, turning heavy in the afternoon with a couple of torrential downpours possible.

Elsewhere, sunny skies and convective cloud bubbling up. Temperatures reaching the mid twenties in Central Southern England and the West Country. Low twenties for Devon & Cornwall.

[Costa Del Fal]

Don't forget the latest forecast for Cornwall and the Channel Islands is till being updated every day with other features including 2-5 Day Forecast and Latest Observations all available at www.cciweather.co.uk

[MP-R]

How much more cloud do we need lol. I'm hoping for a sunny day tomorrow, considerably warmer than today too.

[A.J]

good grief, what a horror show from the past couple of runs from the GFS model (00z & 06z) where 24 hours ago was showing 27C for thursday, 28C for friday and 28C for saturday, now show a paltry 18C for both friday and saturday with heavy showers or longer spells of rain....absolutley horrific and completely balls up my weekend plans......seriously hope the models are barking up the wrong tree!   

[AWD]

good grief, what a horror show from the past couple of runs from the GFS model (00z & 06z) where 24 hours ago was showing 27C for thursday, 28C for friday and 28C for saturday, now show a paltry 18C for both friday and saturday with heavy showers or longer spells of rain....absolutley horrific and completely balls up my weekend plans......seriously hope the models are barking up the wrong tree!

It does show high pressure at T300+ though.

[wimblettben]

good grief, what a horror show from the past couple of runs from the GFS model (00z & 06z) where 24 hours ago was showing 27C for thursday, 28C for friday and 28C for saturday, now show a paltry 18C for both friday and saturday with heavy showers or longer spells of rain....absolutley horrific and completely balls up my weekend plans......seriously hope the models are barking up the wrong tree! 

The models have to be barking up the wrong tree mate.

 

Because if they are not then it will be the quickest turn around of a certain weather type from the models that I have ever seen since being on this forumn for two years.

[MP-R]

Thankfully a lot of sunshine has been had today, was worried yesterday when it was still rather cloudy. 24.6C max with only bits of high cloud around for much of the day.

[AWD]

The models have to be barking up the wrong tree mate.

Because if they are not then it will be the quickest turn around of a certain weather type from the models that I have ever seen since being on this forumn for two years.

The December "phantom easterly" was bigger.

The Met Office and anomaly charts were never really onboard with a lengthy hot and settled spell, it was just overly hyped up in the Model thread.

In December, the Met Office and Anomaly output, along with Model output, were to a larger degree, onboard with a cold easterly that went boobs up within T72.

[A.J]

think we all deserve a storm or two over the weekend to make up for the missing heat (providing of course that the model output doesn't progress the old switcheroo in the meantime!)

[Andy Bown]

Pleased to return from SE Spain's 29c-34c and mostly sunny to a fine British summer day!

I did watch some stunning CBs over the mountains at the weekend, otherwise only the slightest wisps of Cirrus and early morning Stratocumulus for the whole fortnight.

[Captain Shortwave]

The models have to be barking up the wrong tree mate.

 

Because if they are not then it will be the quickest turn around of a certain weather type from the models that I have ever seen since being on this forumn for two years.

Simple explanation I can give if this. The models have not handled this situation well. First most tried to take all the energy south east, maintaining the warm/very warm uppers and in fact producing a plume-like set up. Then the models tried to take all the energy east which resulted in the sharp breakdown to westerly winds over the weekend. The reality is of course in between and the mess of solutions on the 12Z suite show how knife-edge and uncertain things are.

Edited August 20, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[AWD]

No point in doing a forecast map for tomorrow, basically dry for many of us, partly cloudy and partly sunny with temperatures similiar to today's values.

[Guest William Grimsley]

now show a paltry 18C for both friday and saturday with heavy showers or longer spells of rain....

Yes there could well be some heavy showers with maybe a thundery ingredient to them as the LOW pressure hits the hot air in place over the UK.

[Guest William Grimsley]

It looks like some quite active heavy/thundery showers will enter SW England on Saturday. It's something to watch.

[Nights King]

Well it is raining here this morning which wasn't really expected?

[wimblettben]

Well it is raining here this morning which wasn't really expected?

 

 

Well it is raining here this morning which wasn't really expected?

We have just had some light rain as well.

 

It has broken up now and it looks like there are slightly unstable mid level clouds producing it.

[A.J]

We have just had some light rain as well.

 

It has broken up now and it looks like there are slightly unstable mid level clouds producing it.

good spot, yep some banks of altocumulus, some of which is trying to tower, enough to give some showery outbreaks across BANES  & Wilts as they spill in from the Bristol channel

 

 

The weekend looks better here on the 00z model runs as the main energy from the LP system is shunted up to the north west of the UK allowing us to retain for warmth (mid twenties generally, high twenties to the south and east of the region) with the chance of some heavy showers from time to time...not too bad

Edited August 21, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[Guest William Grimsley]

yep some banks of altocumulus, some of which is trying to tower

 

 

the chance of some heavy showers from time to time...not too bad

Altocumulus? now that's unexpected, yes I see thatthat's going to be interesting...I hope it is

[gottolovethisweather]

Plenty of showery rain slowly edging East right now, according to the radar. Raidan, over in the convection thread reporting the possibility of Thunder, perhaps unlikely as he suggested but there was a heads up from Phil Avery earlier today that there could be an overnight rumble in places.

[wimblettben]

Plenty of showery rain slowly edging East right now, according to the radar. Raidan, over in the convection thread reporting the possibility of Thunder, perhaps unlikely as he suggested but there was a heads up from Phil Avery earlier today that there could be an overnight rumble in places.

I wouldn't be suprised if we do get some thunder tonight as the sky has that unstable, thundery type look to it at the moment.

 

To be honest though I think there is a higher chance of us getting something on Saturday looking at the models.

[MP-R]

Supposedly been under steady rain for the last half an hour. A few spots at the most in reality - most of it isn't reaching the ground.