South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 13th August 2013>

[Coast]

Ah, but is that THIS Rainham, or the Essex one?!(Sort of said tongue-in-cheek. But also a genuine question, Coast.)

 

Ah, got me there as I was looking at the Kent one, but NW didn't stipulate. In any event as the two are only about 15 miles East/West of each other as the crow flies, I don't think it will make the difference Biensie needs. Lets all keep our fingers crossed the charts and models change enough to make that difference.

[Anvils in the Sky]

Ah, got me there as I was looking at the Kent one, but NW didn't stipulate. In any event as the two are only about 15 miles East/West of each other as the crow flies, I don't think it will make the difference Biensie needs. Lets all keep our fingers crossed the charts and models change enough to make that difference.

Thank you. (I'd have thought it must be quite uncommon for there to be two different places with the same name, so close to each other.)

But, yep, keeping everything crossed Saturday doesn't turn out as bad as the charts are currently suggesting. So many people with so many outdoor activities planned...

[Kentish Man]

Nice downpour here - not sure our short to medium term forecasters can cover themselves in much glory this week. Once again complex summer situations evade them.

[Biensie]

A Big thanks for all your helpful information.  I'm gonna hope for the best at the moment and just keep looking at updates today, if its anything like the snow in January it might miss us completely, lol!  Otherwise its the stoic English 'don't panic and carry on'...

[Tamara]

Nice downpour here - not sure our short to medium term forecasters can cover themselves in much glory this week. Once again complex summer situations evade them.

I guess they make decisions based on the best information available at the time. Micro detail developments on a small island like this can crop up at short notice. Anyone remember the early January 2010 snow event? The countryfile forecast couldn't have seen that one evolve to the widespread extent that it did at such short time period (ie 48 to 72 hours)

Edited August 22, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Biensie]

Gets better - Met have just issued a rain weather warning for Medway!

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Alert of Rain for London & South East England :

 

Hampshire, Oxfordshire, West Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Reading, Wokingham, Bracknell Forest, Greater London, Milton Keynes, Slough, Surrey, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Kent & Medway

 

Yellow Alert of Rain for East of England :

 

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Essex, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

 

Outbreaks of rain affecting parts of England and Wales during Saturday are likely to turn heavy at times, with a risk a of local accumulations in excess of 40 mm. The public should be aware of possible localised surface water flooding where heaviest showers.

 

Issued at:

1045 on Thu 22 Aug 2013

 

Valid from:

0005 on Sat 24 Aug 2013

 

Valid to:

2100 on Sat 24 Aug 2013

 

 

A frontal zone stalling over much of the area on Saturday will produce spells of showery rain. Some of this rain will be heavy, perhaps with thunder, and locally torrential. Where the heaviest rain occurs is very uncertain, largely due to the complex fashion in which this frontal zone develops. Current thinking suggests northern and western parts of the region covered by the warning may improve later on Saturday whilst further south and east improvement is considered likely to be slower.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?from=rss&regionName=uk&sn=37958EA9-F884-4337-A498-A53A3F4E494F_1_EE&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1377298800

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

 

I wafted in from paradise to a very wet Luton airport this morning - no hurry to get the holiday clothes washed and dried now so I'm off to bed for a few hours 

[Coast]

Gets better - Met have just issued a rain weather warning for Medway!

 

You will need to keep an eye on things today and tomorrow for sure. The weather warning is not specific about Kent yet:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html

Edited August 22, 2013 by Coast

[RUSH]

morning alll

 

 

a nice wet but warm morning so far in kt3 hope the the showers slow as i need to do sum work in the garden today,i might just do it in the rain its warm lol

[Heisenberg]

Morning all,

 

well afternoon now...

 

How are we looking for storm activity in our region today? From my take it looks promising, but then what do i know...

[Coast]

Morning all,

 

well afternoon now...

 

How are we looking for storm activity in our region today? From my take it looks promising, but then what do i know...

 

'noon

 

You need to head North East a bit really, top of East Anglia and Lincs probably, maybe erm.... :unsure: 

[Tom Jarvis]

Oh no not the curse of the met office warning now we won't get any thundery activity

[Mark Neal.]

Been raining much of the night here, stopped mid morning, but had heavy rain an hour ago, now cleared away and blue skies, very warm and humid though, currently 23c, wind 4mph SSE.

[john pike]

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

For saturday. Yuk

Hi all I will update the new fax charts around 6 :-)

[Tom Montalbano]

Afternoon all,

From an improving picture, here in Croydon, with this mornings rain departing and skies brightening.

Would agree that any thunder today, more likely to occur in the extreme NE of our region.

As the Meto are suggesting, tomorrows thundery potential harder to call, at the moment.

06z GFS, suggestive of t/storms/thundery rain moving NE from N.France/Channel, in the early hours of Sat. Morn and stalling over the east and north of our region, with perhaps Essex and especially Kent, likely to suffer some of the heaviest and most persistent rainfall. Will almost certainly be a case of radar watching to predict exactly where this frontal zone will stall and therefore which locations, will receive most rainfall.

As the Meto state, N and W of the region look likely to improve first, with S and E of London, hanging on to rainfall, into Sat. afternoon. GFS then go on to develop another trough, giving some notable rainfall to the W of London, in the early hours of Sun. morning.

Will make an interesting couple of days, synoptically and indeed, radar watching.

Tom.

[Coast]

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

For saturday. Yuk

 

It's not great reading at the moment John:

 

 

 

 

 

Lets hope that lot keeps sliding East on the next runs.

[john pike]

Hi coast

I have looked at sunday and the low has been shifted further south east which is good.

Saturday has looked poor for a few days now. Let's see what the afternoon fax charts show and hope they show some sort of improvement as I have to drive to brandon on saturday morning

Hope your well

John

[Biensie]

After the yellow warning on Met for Saturday, I could take no more! Thankfully, I have managed to move my BBQ to Sunday.  Now praying for a good Sunday. 

[Downpour]

I guess they make decisions based on the best information available at the time. Micro detail developments on a small island like this can crop up at short notice. Anyone remember the early January 2010 snow event? The countryfile forecast couldn't have seen that one evolve to the widespread extent that it did at such short time period (ie 48 to 72 hours)

You are far too forgiving Tamara – it's another epic cock-up. They are paid large sums of money to forecast the weather amid complexity and got it badly wrong at short range, and it's as simple as that. Saturday looks like being another massive fail – forecasting a warm, dry weekend around which people have planned. We are now facing heavy rainfall. I ordered two tonnes of topsoil to relandscape my garden, arriving Saturday morning, based on their forecast. I will now probably end up with £150 worth of mud (or rather my neighbours will, as it streams away down the hill). 

[Coast]

After the yellow warning on Met for Saturday, I could take no more! Thankfully, I have managed to move my BBQ to Sunday.  Now praying for a good Sunday. 

 

Still possible it may rain Sunday:

 

 

Could clear later in the afternoon:

 

 

 

[Kentish Man]

You are far too forgiving Tamara – it's another epic cock-up. They are paid large sums of money to forecast the weather amid complexity and got it badly wrong at short range, and it's as simple as that. Saturday looks like being another massive fail – forecasting a warm, dry weekend around which people have planned. We are now facing heavy rainfall. I ordered two tonnes of topsoil to relandscape my garden, arriving Saturday morning, based on their forecast. I will now probably end up with £150 worth of mud (or rather my neighbours will, as it streams away down the hill). 

 

In fairness I think it is today which was the massive cock-up. They had been cagey about Sat for some time. In Playing and watching cricket I take a close interest in forecasts at the time of year. I had been thinking of buying tickets for the Oval today at an inflated price above face value and I'm very glad I didn't because under the bad weather guarantee you only get the face value back. Wed - Fri had always been promised dry and warm/hot weather in the south-east and the models were showing this until very recently. My gripe is that although Tamara refers to an example of a  winter cock-up it is in fact summer with the much higher temps and complex upper pattterns that the Met Office and others all too regularly don't get a handle on. Obviously the exact detail is difficult to predict a few days ahead but some equivocation or hint a few days ago the dry weather might not happen could have been useful.

Edited August 22, 2013 by Kentish Man

[Downpour]

In fairness I think it is today which was the massive cock-up. They hasve been cagey about Sat for some time. In Playing and watching cricket I take a close interest in forecasts at the time of year. I had been thinking of buying tickets for the Oval today at an inflated price above face value and I'm very glad I didn't because under the bad weather guarantee you only get the face value back. Wed - Fri had always been promised dry and warm/hot weather and the models were showing this until very recently. My gripe is that although Tamara refers to an example of a  winter cock-up it is in fact summer with the much higher temps and complex upper pattterns that the Met Office and others all too regularly don't get a handle on. Obviously the exact detail is difficult to predict a few days ahead but some equivocation or hint a few days ago the dry weather might not happen could have been useful.

Fair enough. I think they have had a bad summer (year?) generally and we have to face that. Everyone knows that the British weather is hard to forecast but that's why they are are paid so well. 

[Biensie]

Still possible it may rain Sunday:

 

 

 

Please don't..... I had to make a decision and out of the two days Sunday looks much better.  

So much for the heatwave we were supposed to have. Even tomorrows temperature's are now being downgraded.

[Coast]

Please don't..... I had to make a decision and out of the two days Sunday looks much better.  

 

So much for the heatwave we were supposed to have. Even tomorrows temperature's are now being downgraded.

 

I think your call is right, as it looks currently like less rain on Sunday - do you have a village hall?? :lol: