South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 13th August 2013>

[Jax]

Evening all,

 

LAte to show tonight, had a change of plan at work and ended up doing an induction for a new area manager without notice, so tad late leaving the orifice again.

 

But after a swift change (a la S-man) was back out and in the garden with my folks to enjoy the evening, and what a fine evening it has been , calm, dry, sunny, warm and in good company.

[Captain Shortwave]

I think the temperatures might be a little undercooked tomorrow. But again this depends on sunshine amounts, but with 12C isotherm over the south I think 80F could be reached. The temperature peaked at 25C at Cavendish in Suffolk so definitely possible with warmer uppers.

Maybe some decent shower activity thursday.

Friday looks like a good day with plenty of sunshine

Bank holiday weekend - Nope, not a clue, dependent on a very volatile set-up involving trough energy distribution.

[Jax]

I think the temperatures might be a little undercooked tomorrow. But again this depends on sunshine amounts, but with 12C isotherm over the south I think 80F could be reached. The temperature peaked at 25C at Cavendish in Suffolk so definitely possible with warmer uppers.

Maybe some decent shower activity thursday.

Friday looks like a good day with plenty of sunshine

Bank holiday weekend - Nope, not a clue, dependent on a very volatile set-up involving trough energy distribution.

Weekend appears to go any way and more, no one is putting money on the table yet that is for sure.

[john pike]

the bank holiday weekend weather

 

saturday sunshine with some showers and sometimes overcast temps 20-28

 

sunday sunshine and some showers  and sometimes overcast temps 20-28

 

monday sunshine and showers and sometimes overcast  temps 20-28

 

[Crepuscular Ray]

So, sunshine, showers, overcast and 20-28 then!

[Jax]

So, sunshine, showers, sometimes overcast and 20-28 then!

[Captain Shortwave]

So, sunshine, showers, overcast and 20-28 then!

Here's the most accurate forecast I could find

#overused netweather forum joke

[Crepuscular Ray]

 

So, sunshine, showers, sometimes overcast and 20-28 then!

 

soz!

[Jax]

soz!

Wasnt having a go, it was in jest

[Crepuscular Ray]

Here's the most accurate forecast I could find

 

#overused netweather forum joke

Brilliant, even if an overused netweather forum joke

[Jax]

Right is is muggy as hell here so I am going to open the windows, air the bedroom a bit and get an early night in as I get more sleep in the early hours that any other time.

 

See you all tomrrow.

[john pike]

Here's the most accurate forecast I could find

#overused netweather forum joke

 

hi captain

 

funnily enough i have not seen that before

 

i knew i missed some other bits

[john pike]

updated fax charts are in

 

i am even more confused now

 

saturday

 

low has vanished

 

we have a breezy south west wind

 

there will be sunshine and showers

 

temps somewhere around 22-24 degrees

 

sunday

 

a variable wind flow

 

mainly sunny but there will be occasional heavy showers

 

temps feeling humid around 25 degrees and poss higher should you avoid the showers( thundery ?)

 

ukmo raw fax

 

bottom right for monday

 

looks dry and sunny

 

not my forecast yet

 

need a couple more days for that

Edited August 20, 2013 by john pike

[Tamara]

Good to see you in the model thread John (boy!) 

[john pike]

hi tam

 

i used to do it a few years ago but keep my distance in the winter

 

prefer sticking local

 

not as brave as you

[Tamara]

hi tam

 

i used to do it a few years ago but keep my distance in the winter

 

prefer sticking local

 

not as brave as you

Its about free opinions and not egos and a competition for who is right or wrong. Or should be  On that basis it doesn't bother me at all because I use it purely to learn stuff and its always interesting and fun to see what happens even if what you think might happen doesn't come about That happens often enough ..but then none of us get paid either for what we think. So its ok to be a bit dumb anyway!

 

Winter I agree is hopeless to post on there!  Pages and pages of hot air...wishing for cold arctic air!

[john pike]

 

 

fi etc

 

look to our south west

 

that is a vicious looking low

 

lets hope that disappears from the charts

[john pike]

 

Its about free opinions and not egos and a competition for who is right or wrong. Or should be  On that basis it doesn't bother me at all because I use it purely to learn stuff and its always interesting and fun to see what happens even if what you think might happen doesn't come about That happens often enough ..but then none of us get paid either for what we think. So its ok to be a bit dumb anyway!

 

Winter I agree is hopeless to post on there!  Pages and pages of hot air...wishing for cold arctic air!

 

i agree tam

 

i like to post the fax charts when things get confusing

 

there not always correct but i find them pretty close

 

as you say in winter its who ramps best and i would rather do that in here

Edited August 20, 2013 by john pike

[john pike]

ecm for saturday

 

 

 

 

 

 

looks like stormy possibilities

 

sunday

 

 

 

 

barring the odd shower does not look too bad

 

at present it seems to tally with the fax chart

 

as for monday will have to wait until tomorrow night for that

 

ecm ensembles

 

 

nearly a 10 degree disagreement from the models for monday

 

rain still showing an increase from the 24th

 

a point though on this

 

the heavier rain prediction on here is on the 28th

 

anyway more tomorrow

 

goodnight all

[john pike]

 

after the bank holiday

 

to me looks average with some showers

 

no heatwave but no atlantic driven weather either

 

be interesting to see tomorrow nights fax as that will show monday

 

i am off now

 

nite all

[Coast]

Morning regionaires!

 

A cracking 17°C and bright sunshine in Eastbourne, quickly deteriorating inland to low, thick mist and a paltry 10°C. The sun is now doing it's voodoo magic and burning some of the mist off to hopefully give us a bright, warm end of August day.

 

Doesn't look like a 100% 'glorious' BH weekend of weather coming up, with some cloud spoiling what otherwise could be a very good three days. Lets wait and see what Friday's outlook has and enjoy the break (those of you that have it) anyway!

[Tom Montalbano]

Morning all,

 

A fine start to the day here, with some high cloud floating around. Messy synoptic day, today but seemingly a weak trough looks set to cross our area during the overnight period, with some showers around, which could produce a rumble or two, for a few places. Thursday looks to be a fine day, after any overnight showers have cleared away. Certainly looks like Friday will be the warmest day in the region, over the next few, with high 20s C on the cards, with a 30c possible somewhere in our area. Thundery potential again, in the overnight period as some humid air is advected northwards, from France, over our region, ahead of a cold front, advancing into the west of the country. Meto FAX for midday Friday, develops a small thundery low over Brittany, which then tracks NE, along the N.French coast, with attendant trough moving into southern parts of our region, in the early hours of Saturday. Difficult to pinpoint exactly where t/storms could occur but those usual suspects, in this type of synoptic set-up, looking prone, i.e areas S and E of London.

Certainly something to keep an eye on, for Brontophiles and Brontophobes alike.

 

Thereafter, hard to put too much detail into an attempted forecast for the Bank Holiday period, as has been well highlighted on the MOD thread recently, with models struggling to resolve the exact synoptics, for those days. Havnt got a scooby doo, sums up my feelings really!

 

Regards,

Tom.

Edited August 21, 2013 by TomBR7

[snow raven]

Morning All,

 

Another lovely morning - sunny with that Autumnal nip in the air (bought my cardie last night, so pretty much guarenteed us all a late summer/early autumn heatwave  )

 

Have a lovely day

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all - still very hot and humid here !

I will try to bring you all some sunshine home for the bank holiday weekend - if not there is always duty free booze !

Hope your all ok - it's been a bit quiet on the thread - maybe we need to sort out the pre Christmas regional get together when I get back I did see Steve C mentioned something the other day !

[Coast]

Morning All,

 

Morning Leeanne!

 

Temps already on the rise:

 

 

I think we have a good chance of beating yesterdays high too:

 

 

Although MetO says the same as yesterday:

 

 

GFS is a little more upbeat: