Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14

[Methuselah]

Actually, no theories have suggested runaway warming; and neither is the 'blip' being ignored...On the contrary, last time I heard, it was being investigated. 

[Captain Shortwave]

It may be fair enough that the IPCC dismiss the 15 year pause in rising temperature as a blip. Perhaps this question should be asked - if the pause continues, after how many years would the blip be no longer considered temporary and therefore the current theories of further anthropogenic global warming have to be questioned?

I think given the IPCC standard I believe it would be about 30 years as that seems to be their standard level of time (this was quoted from another source). I think research should be going into why the global climate is flatlining despite CO2 levels increasing. It would be interesting to find out other drivers of the global climate. Unfortunately given the invested interests on both sides, any investigation would probably descend to farcical levels. 

Edited September 29, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[johnholmes]

I think given the IPCC standard I believe it would be about 30 years as that seems to be their standard level of time (this was quoted from another source). I think research should be going into why the global climate is flatlining despite CO2 levels increasing. It would be interesting to find out other drivers of the global climate. Unfortunately given the invested interests on both sides, any investigation would probably descend to farcical levels. 

 

I doubt it is the scientists suggesting that Cs rather once the politicians get hold of what they publish. But It would be really interesting to hear what one of the 'lead' scientists thinks might be a cause to why CO2 has increased whilst the temperature level has flattened out. I think we would delude ourselves that it will not begin to rise again with the consequences of world wide rises in land and ocean temperatures. Even the lowest end of their predicted ocean rise puts a fair number of low lying islands into the serious flooding or even extinction level byt 2100.

[cyclonic happiness]

I doubt it is the scientists suggesting that Cs rather once the politicians get hold of what they publish. But It would be really interesting to hear what one of the 'lead' scientists thinks might be a cause to why CO2 has increased whilst the temperature level has flattened out. I think we would delude ourselves that it will not begin to rise again with the consequences of world wide rises in land and ocean temperatures. Even the lowest end of their predicted ocean rise puts a fair number of low lying islands into the serious flooding or even extinction level byt 2100.

Why does it always have to be 100 years away...50 years away etc?

 

I was told at school that the world would be a massively different place by now (school in the 80s) but it's the same, no noticeable change in the climate for the vast majority of earth.

 

And what if the leveling of the temperature is a prelude to a catastrophic fall in temperatures? 

 

The warming trend just doesn't seem to fit with nature, I feel us going rapidly towards cold not warm and god help me I wish it was the other way.

[Yarmy]

Sheesh. I love this thread and it's getting derailed by climate bickering. There's a whole section for that, guys.

[johnholmes]

you are quite right Y, I will make sure I keep my comments for the correct area in future

[jonboy]

 

I doubt it is the scientists suggesting that Cs rather once the politicians get hold of what they publish. But It would be really interesting to hear what one of the 'lead' scientists thinks might be a cause to why CO2 has increased whilst the temperature level has flattened out. I think we would delude ourselves that it will not begin to rise again with the consequences of world wide rises in land and ocean temperatures. Even the lowest end of their predicted ocean rise puts a fair number of low lying islands into the serious flooding or even extinction level byt 2100.

 It will rise by 2100 but because of the natural solar cycle there is evidence that not only says that we will cool over the next 40 years as this and the next cycle bite but that once the following cycles take effect we could enter a sinilar warming to the medieval warm period but off course that was down to co2

[snowrye]

Thought this was snow and ice.

[feb1991blizzard]

No - its the Green Party conference with their leader speaking!!!!!

[Gavin Hannah]

The earth is still warmer than 100 years ago. What remains to be seen is if we continue as is, get warmer, or perhaps even, dare i say, cool down as the sun goes for a nap???

[be cause]

Sorry folks .. normal service will be resumed

 

 shortly ... 

 

record positive anomaly in NH snow cover is more fun than more climate wars !

Edited September 29, 2013 by be cause

[be cause]

Sorry folks .. normal service will be resumed

 

 shortly ... 

 

record positive anomaly in NH snow cover is more fun than more climate wars !

 

 .. A hockey stick ?

[Gavin Hannah]

The latest value: 5,412,477 km²â€‚(September 29, 2013)  

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

 

As we enter October, the refreeze is kicking up a notch. Keep an eye out for those 100K a day gains. 

 

 

The Ice now making landfall on the Siberian side of the Arctic.

Edited September 30, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Tomorrow we enter the month where rapid snowcover counts under the Cohen theory, which seems a sound theory. 

 

BFTP

[laserguy]

Tomorrow we enter the month where rapid snowcover counts under the Cohen theory, which seems a sound theory. 

 

BFTP

 

What's that then?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What's that then?

Its the gain in October that apparently counts.

 

Of interest the arctic summer temps and indeed the general yearly arctic temps this year appear far more similar to 2010 than most, both having a below normal / cold summer.  Will it mean anything come winter?

 

BFTP

[Kiwi]

What's that then?

See link below for Mr Cohen's thoughts on Siberian snow cover in October

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/FY11CTBSeminars/jcohen_062211.pdf

[Interitus]

See link below for Mr Cohen's thoughts on Siberian snow cover in October

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/FY11CTBSeminars/jcohen_062211.pdf

 

We are seeing some snow south of 60°N already so I suppose the feedback with albedo and cooling may already be started.

One of the most interesting parts of that paper are Northern hemisphere winter temperature regression charts (fig.3) which show that the trends in winter temperatures since 1988/9 have been almost entirely due to the state of the AO - forget ENSO, PDO, AMO and sunspots.

[beng]

We are seeing some snow south of 60°N already so I suppose the feedback with albedo and cooling may already be started.

One of the most interesting parts of that paper are Northern hemisphere winter temperature regression charts (fig.3) which show that the trends in winter temperatures since 1988/9 have been almost entirely due to the state of the AO - forget ENSO, PDO, AMO and sunspots.

 

Yep - but there's a relationship between sunspots/UV and the AO

http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/looknorthyorkslincs/ahlbeck_solar_activity.pdf

 

http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2012ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/S2-01_Ineson_sorce2012.pdf

Edited September 30, 2013 by beng

[Gavin Hannah]

A review of the current sunspot situation.

 

Astro Nomer; 

"Sunspots? Did someone just say sunspots? Hang on... can't ... quite ... see ... any... erhm, No wait, there's one, a tiny one, but it is one!"

 

Mill Keyway;

"Are you sure? I can't see a damn thing!"

 

[snowking]

 

A review of the current sunspot situation.

 

Astro Nomer; 

"Sunspots? Did someone just say sunspots? Hang on... can't ... quite ... see ... any... erhm, No wait, there's one, a tiny one, but it is one!"

 

Mill Keyway;

"Are you sure? I can't see a damn thing!"

 

 

 

The recent count from the SESC is shown in the graph below:

 

 

 

(Green is Flux, Blue is Sunspot Count)

 

Not quite dead given 10.7cm solar flux hovering around the 100 mark, but certainly not what you would call active by any means.

 

I know I had mentioned previously over in the stratosphere thread concerns about the pre-2006 Labitzke et al. findings about the most likely conditions for an SSW/MMW occurring under either a combination of Solar Max & West QBO or Solar Min & East QBO, with the solar maximum defined as having a 10.7cm flux value of 150 or over.

 

However, a more up to date version shows that in recent years we have seen exceptions to this:

 

 

And so this is no longer so much of a concern. It also depends how the definition of a Solar Maximum event is taken, with the possibility of the link being to the maximum magnetic disruption on the sun as opposed to a set value of flux (the two would usually correspond with one another under a more active solar cycle, and all the solar cycles studied in the original Labitzke et al. paper were under stronger solar cycles).

 

Either way, just all little signs that point towards something more favourable for those cold winter fans among us.

 

 

^^ When this updates early next month, we should see a fairly decent decrease in the averaged sunspot count, and nothing like what we experienced prior to winter 2011/12

 

SK

Edited September 30, 2013 by snowking

[Relativistic]

I don't see a way up for sunspots now, I think solar max is behind us. Each recent cycle seems to have a double peak of activity, and the current cycle looks as if it has experienced this double peak. So hopefully we are now about to enter an extended minimum before starting solar cycle 25.

Edited September 30, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[LincolnSnowstorm]

A review of the current sunspot situation.

 

Astro Nomer; 

"Sunspots? Did someone just say sunspots? Hang on... can't ... quite ... see ... any... erhm, No wait, there's one, a tiny one, but it is one!"

 

Mill Keyway;

"Are you sure? I can't see a damn thing!"

 

if you zoom in real close you can make them look big!

 

[cooling climate]

The refreeze in the Arctic is quite remarkable this year and obviously shows the

Arctic to be cooling much quicker than previous years but perhaps no real

surprise to those who have been monitoring Arctic temps during the year.

Very encouraging.

[smithyweather]

The latest value: 5,412,477 km²â€‚(September 29, 2013)  

 

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

 

 

As we enter October, the refreeze is kicking up a notch. Keep an eye out for those 100K a day gains. 

 

cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

The Ice now making landfall on the Siberian side of the Arctic.

Thank you for keeping the thread on topic.

I notice a big jump in snow cover from 27th to 29th. Would you say this is well above average?