Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[keithlucky]

German met 70 to 30 of a cold winter ahead http://t.co/slVuNn7vkC

 

[Conor Sherwin]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ie/dublin/207931/november-weather/207931?monyr=11/1/2013

end of nov= getting cold and east wind 

[Gaz1985]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/ie/dublin/207931/november-weather/207931?monyr=11/1/2013

end of nov= getting cold and east wind 

 

7 or 8c is not "cold"

Edited October 16, 2013 by Gaz1985

[feb1991blizzard]

Anyone know what a Motherly is because if that means a cross between words and is meant to be the mother of all northerlys then in my opinion that is wrong and its tame and will not deliver.

Edited October 16, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Isolated Frost]

German met 70 to 30 of a cold winter ahead http://t.co/slVuNn7vkC

I've never read so much cobblers than on that website... and the German met isn't even involved; just one solitary meteorologist.

[Downburst]

I'll ask a very simple question. What anomalous conditions with regard to the climate average, experienced or observed in the U.K. or Ireland aka these parts suggest a colder than average winter this year, compared to last? This question doesn't have a simple answer, the CFS is an example of that.

[gsteruk]

it seems like only a couple of weeks ago the majority here were leaning quite heavily to quite an eventful end to autumn and winter. now typically things have shifted. isn't it as likely things may shift, even a few more times before anyone's in a position to know? or even take an educated stab?

[Conor Sherwin]

7 or 8c is not "cold"

but below average 

[smithyweather]

No it isn't

[johnholmes]

use the link below to type in your nearest town for the averages for each month; saves any arguing what is and is not average for every part of the UK

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/bessacarr-south-yorkshire#?tab=climateTables

[Nights King]

use the link below to type in your nearest town for the averages for each month; saves any arguing what is and is not average for every part of the UK

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/bessacarr-south-yorkshire#?tab=climateTables

 

Doesn't take into account huge variations though within regions for example my 'local' station is Yeovil which might as well be a different country its that different from me.

[jethro]

Doesn't take into account huge variations though within regions for example my 'local' station is Yeovil which might as well be a different country its that different from me.

 

It goes down to finer detail, if you type in your location it gives you the options of Green Ore and Chilcompton; certainly a truer picture than Yeovil.

[Nights King]

It goes down to finer detail, if you type in your location it gives you the options of Green Ore and Chilcompton; certainly a truer picture than Yeovil.

 

Thanks jeth but how do I find the finer detailed statistics? I can get green ore on forecast which you are right is much better but cant find historic info for green ore?

 

I type green ore in and it indeed comes up on the drop down menu but when you search it brings you back to Yeovil data? for example annual rainfall is 700mm which is almost half of what we get...

 

 

Look at what is says on the side when you do use it...

 

Yeovilton site information: Location: 51.006, -2.640 Altitude: 20 m above mean sea level Distance: 0.0 km from Green Ore  ??? Edited October 17, 2013 by mullender83

[Summer Sun]

Roger J Smith has issued his winter forecast

 

 

In general terms, the winter forecast for the UK and Ireland is for milder than average conditions about two-thirds of the time, and colder than average about one-third of the time, in the main winter months of December, January and February. I could add that both November and March show similar outcomes in the research model output so whatever your preference for a winter season, this should apply, mild spells will tend to outnumber cold spells.

 

December looks particularly mild as well as early November, and mid to late February. January shows the greatest parity of mild and cold spells and may end up closer to long-term normal values. My CET predictions for the various months at this early stage are NOV 7.2, DEC 6.1, JAN 3.8, FEB 4.5, MAR 6.0.

 

Although I have mentioned mild as the dominant theme, the fact that January sees more equal chances of mild and cold may rescue the winter from the category of very mild and snow-free "mod'ern win'ter" (not "large teapot" LOL) that often dominated in the period 1988 to 2007, and perhaps this will be more of an "average" winter as a result, so my estimation of disruption potential is something like moderate or about five to ten days in total for most regions.

 

I'm expecting some rather lengthy intervals of very mild southwest flow and occasional heavy rainfalls and strong winds during parts of early November, much of December, late January and possibly into part of February although here I expect any mild spells to be more caused by southerly flow associated with European blocking. March by contrast may be dominated more by cold zonal flow patterns.

 

 

Full forecast and CET predictions here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72635-the-seasonal-forecast-thread/?p=2808183

[jethro]

 

Thanks jeth but how do I find the finer detailed statistics? I can get green ore on forecast which you are right is much better but cant find historic info for green ore?

 

I type green ore in and it indeed comes up on the drop down menu but when you search it brings you back to Yeovil data? for example annual rainfall is 700mm which is almost half of what we get...

 

 

Look at what is says on the side when you do use it...

 

Yeovilton site information: Location: 51.006, -2.640 Altitude: 20 m above mean sea level Distance: 0.0 km from Green Ore  ???

 

 

Oh, I see what you mean now - it's quoting Bath for nearest to here when it comes to climate data, hadn't noticed that. I guess we'll just have to figure whatever Yeovil and Bath get, we get with knobs on; more rain, more fog, much colder and loads more snow 

[Gavin Hannah]

I don't see any support for milder than average winter looking at all the "jigsaw pieces" as things stand.

We would have to either get dozed by the atlantic or sit on the wrong side of HP for weeks on end.

Edited October 17, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[Nights King]

Oh, I see what you mean now - it's quoting Bath for nearest to here when it comes to climate data, hadn't noticed that. I guess we'll just have to figure whatever Yeovil and Bath get, we get with knobs on; more rain, more fog, much colder and loads more snow 

 

 It is strange that is says green ore is 0.0km distance away from Yeovil though. I guess we just have to do as you say but it is a shame they only have station history in one of the mildest parts of region.

 

Roger J smiths forecast must be wrong...  

Edited October 17, 2013 by mullender83

[Boro Snow]

ECMWF update update indicates higher than average pressure to the N of the UK for Dec/Jan/Feb." potential for blocking & cold winds, i am staying positive

[UV-RAY]

ECMWF update update indicates higher than average pressure to the N of the UK for Dec/Jan/Feb." potential for blocking & cold winds, i am staying positive

The trouble with the ECM seasonal model is that it's consistent, as in consistently wrong.

[cheese]

Thanks jeth but how do I find the finer detailed statistics? I can get green ore on forecast which you are right is much better but cant find historic info for green ore? I type green ore in and it indeed comes up on the drop down menu but when you search it brings you back to Yeovil data? for example annual rainfall is 700mm which is almost half of what we get... Look at what is says on the side when you do use it... Yeovilton site information: Location: 51.006, -2.640 Altitude: 20 m above mean sea level Distance: 0.0 km from Green Ore  ???

Thanks jeth but how do I find the finer detailed statistics? I can get green ore on forecast which you are right is much better but cant find historic info for green ore? I type green ore in and it indeed comes up on the drop down menu but when you search it brings you back to Yeovil data? for example annual rainfall is 700mm which is almost half of what we get... Look at what is says on the side when you do use it... Yeovilton site information: Location: 51.006, -2.640 Altitude: 20 m above mean sea level Distance: 0.0 km from Green Ore  ???

There is no weather station at "Green Ore", it takes you to the nearest Met station, which is Yeovil.

[Gavin Hannah]

Im on my phone so cnant link posts from another threaf, however, there are some very intersting posts today from Chiono and Matt over in the strat thread. ;-)

[johnholmes]

One cannot expect detailed statistics for every town, Met have a limited number of stations with data, weather certainly will be different day to day but statistics over a long period, usually 20-30 years, will be fairly similar. If you search the Met site you can find statistics for their current list of stations with data back over 30 years. One then has to interpolate a little-not hard really!

For example I would be fairly surprised if the statistics for Yeavil (it was a naval station, maybe still is) is not different to Doncaster?

 

by the way, how far apart are the two stations?

 

26.9 miles according to my routemaster?

Edited October 17, 2013 by johnholmes

[Dancerwithwings]

"The trouble with the ECM seasonal model is that it's consistent, as in consistently wrong".

 

Consistent theory is one that does not contain a contradiction,Well lets think about this... hmmm!

The models contradict each other, So there all consistently wrong.

Edited October 17, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[stewfox]

it seems like only a couple of weeks ago the majority here were leaning quite heavily to quite an eventful end to autumn and winter. now typically things have shifted. isn't it as likely things may shift, even a few more times before anyone's in a position to know? or even take an educated stab?

 

 

Spot on its 17^th  October last time I looked.

 

People stressing already will it/ won’t it cold , latching onto every long range forecast as if it was gospel.

 

Seen another forecast on the forum that’s predicting ‘likely’ Christmas day weather and people getting down about it.

 

Look out the window take a chill pill , lovely autumn colours out there, clear blue skies nice breeze.

 

Have people forgotten the winter of 1878/79 already a mild October followed by -0.3c Dec and -0.7c Jan (CET)

 

If anyone could accurately predict a week ahead let along 10 weeks ahead they would me making a lot of money.

Edited October 17, 2013 by stewfox

[forecaster]

The trouble with the ECM seasonal model is that it's consistent, as in consistently wrong.

 

It's a bold statement. What can you back this up with?