Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Jimmyh]

love the joe madden comments worst winter for 100 years.. gotta b right one year lol

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

2 days ago high pressure to the north was going to bring an early blast of winter now its going to bring 2 months of above average rain!http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/436541/UK-weather-Now-it-s-going-to-rain-heavily-till-ChristmasThat paper is a complete joke

Yes they change like the weather !!lol!!

[Yarmy]

love the joe madden comments worst winter for 100 years.. gotta b right one year lol

 

That was last year. This year's going to be the worst, like, EVAH.

 

Ice floes visible from land (presumably if you're standing on a mountain in Scotland with the Hubble telescope pointed at the Arctic).

[be cause]

2 days ago high pressure to the north was going to bring an early blast of winter now its going to bring 2 months of above average rain!

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/436541/UK-weather-Now-it-s-going-to-rain-heavily-till-Christmas

 

That paper is a complete joke

 

 

There is a 'make us laugh thread ' .. could not all Express weather forecasts be directed there ?... where they could be treated with the appropriate response 

Edited October 14, 2013 by be cause

[lorenzo]

Another good post on this blog, examining Geopotential Height Anomalies over time, reference of interest the discussion of the pattern since 2007 onwards.

 

http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/siberian-and-greenland-geopotential.html

[Conor Sherwin]

when is the long rang forecast for netweather getting updated any1 

[Summer Sun]

when is the long rang forecast for netweather getting updated any1 

 

Mid october

[Allseasons-Si]

We could do with these type of systems through the winter months,we would be buried by now

 

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

also,just looked at the GEM 12z and brrrr!!

[stewfox]

The strat forecast has been showing signs of a warming of some sorts. Waiting to see Chiono announces anything in the strat thread.

 

There is a suggestion he is not the new messiah, were all waiting anyway for the new thread.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjz16xjeBAA

Edited October 14, 2013 by stewfox

[bobbydog]

There is a suggestion he is not the new messiah, were all waiting anyway for the new thread.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjz16xjeBAA

 

talking of the new messiah, who is doing the netweather winter LRF this year?

[Cloud 10]

Updated CFS ensemble forecast for December shifts the focus of the blocking towards Svalbard.

 

[bluearmy]

Updated CFS ensemble forecast for December shifts the focus of the blocking towards Svalbard.

 

glbz700MonInd2.gif

Fits with BFTV findings (not surprising really). A tad too far north for the uk to be south of the pfj - looks fairly unsettled for us and possibly wintry for scotland.

[mountain shadow]

Updated CFS ensemble forecast for December shifts the focus of the blocking towards Svalbard.glbz700MonInd2.gif

Can't wait for The Murrs first Svalbard blocking post. that's when you know Winter is coming.

[feb1991blizzard]

Im slightly worried by chiono's stratospheric analogue years, I am beginning to think (as per bluearmy's post) that we might get a short spell of blocking in early - mid November (whether this delivers or not is not set in stone, yes its early but there is some decent cold pooling building up), but then thinking maybe a zonal spell after that, I don't mind waiting if you could guarantee me a stonking second half of winter but I don't want a 11-12, a nerve shredding experience where you are literally hanging on every run and it getting late.

[snowking]

Im slightly worried by chiono's stratospheric analogue years, I am beginning to think (as per bluearmy's post) that we might get a short spell of blocking in early - mid November (whether this delivers or not is not set in stone, yes its early but there is some decent cold pooling building up), but then thinking maybe a zonal spell after that, I don't mind waiting if you could guarantee me a stonking second half of winter but I don't want a 11-12, a nerve shredding experience where you are literally hanging on every run and it getting late.

I fully agree with Ed on the use of 1978 and 1990 as composite years....and both of those are actually relatively decent winters in comparison to the mild Atlantic dominated drivel of that now famously titled modern period - especially 78/79.Also interesting to see 2008 in there. What do the three of those have in common - cold February spells. I do feel at present we will have to be rather patient this winter. But those composite years should not be a cause for concern. If anything I would suggest the opposite is true :)SK

[feb1991blizzard]

I fully agree with Ed on the use of 1978 and 1990 as composite years....and both of those are actually relatively decent winters in comparison to the mild Atlantic dominated drivel of that now famously titled modern period - especially 78/79.

Also interesting to see 2008 in there. What do the three of those have in common - cold February spells. I do feel at present we will have to be rather patient this winter. But those composite years should not be a cause for concern. If anything I would suggest the opposite is true

SK

 

 

On a personal note SK, I have been served notice so don't know where I am going to be based in the country after the next few weeks so that's adding to the usual chaos for me, do you think we may get something before the second half of winter though?, also will you be doing us the honours on Monday nights at 11pm in the coming weeks again?

[Captain Shortwave]

I fully agree with Ed on the use of 1978 and 1990 as composite years....and both of those are actually relatively decent winters in comparison to the mild Atlantic dominated drivel of that now famously titled modern period - especially 78/79.

Also interesting to see 2008 in there. What do the three of those have in common - cold February spells. I do feel at present we will have to be rather patient this winter. But those composite years should not be a cause for concern. If anything I would suggest the opposite is true

SK

Comes as no real surprise. Possible cold in November, milder December and turning increasingly cold into 2014. No real thought change then

[snowking]

On a personal note SK, I have been served notice so don't know where I am going to be based in the country after the next few weeks so that's adding to the usual chaos for me, do you think we may get something before the second half of winter though?, also will you be doing us the honours on Monday nights at 11pm in the coming weeks again?

Haha - with regards to the 11pm, I will do my best! I'm not expecting anything too spectacular during the first half of winter to be honest. It will be winter, so a few odd shots of cold are of course possible but at this range all we can look for is trends over a period longer than a few days - really we are talking about looking at a period of weeks, and to that extent at present nothing especially promising shows up in the composites for December. November may prove something of a wildcard and as Ed says it will depend on how the vortex develops over the next few weeks. Early signs of this are a little more promising for November, particularly with the Wave 1 activity already showing up in the ECM forecasts, though I always think we stand a better chance in NW Europe with a wave 2 led stratospheric attack, with wave 1 often displacing the vortex in to a less favourable position for the UK.But yes unfortunately at this very early stage I can't offer too much hope of anything significant for December. SK Edited October 14, 2013 by snowking

[feb1991blizzard]

Haha - with regards to the 11pm, I will do my best!I'm not expecting anything too spectacular during the first half of winter to be honest. It will be winter, so a few odd shots of cold are of course possible but at this range all we can look for is trends over a period longer than a few days - really we are talking about looking at a period of weeks, and to that extent at present nothing especially promising shows up in the composites for December. November may prove something of a wildcard and as Ed says it will depend on how the vortex develops over the next few weeks. Early signs of this are a little more promising for November, particularly with the Wave 1 activity already showing up in the ECM forecasts, though I always thing we stand a better chance in NW Europe with a wave 2 led stratospheric attack, with wave 1 often displacing the vortex in to a less favourable position for the UK.But yes unfortunately at this very early stage I can't offer too much hope of anything significant for December.SK

 

 

Thanks for your thoughts, much appreciated.

 

PS - I would take the 1990 one right here right now thank you very much, an 8-10 incher in Dec and a footer in feb, not a long lasting winter but 2 of my best 4 snow events ever in the same winter - yes please.

Edited October 14, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Conor Sherwin]

Mid october

so tomorrow or the day after

[bobbydog]

so tomorrow or the day after

 

the day after tomorrow.............?

[Gavin Hannah]

Who said that...! Lol. ^^^

On a side note, i see shades of 2010 potential woth regards to Nov. And with a stronger cold spell in jan,feb. 09 was better for me wrt to snow amounts where i stay, but just looking at all the synoptics, i would bet easily a fiver, that we culd get a nov/dec cold shot.

Of course, we are way ahead of 2010 on snow and ice so thats an interesting twist.

Edited October 15, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[UV-RAY]

Hopefully November gives us a week or so of a decent set up for cold, a few models are hinting at this. Thereafter it's looking rather depressing for December if any of the LRF are to be believed. What i don't want too see is a winter like the last  two, both of them were poor for cold and snow events IMBY with us just being on the fringe of any cold pools which lead to a lot of cold rain/sleet and freezing rain events, thoroughly depressing would sum it up.

[feb1991blizzard]

Always remember though, it only takes 12 hours to get a crippling pasting and can sometimes be achieved with dewpoints of only just below 0c and temps slightly above 0c.

[UV-RAY]

Always remember though, it only takes 12 hours to get a crippling pasting and can sometimes be achieved with dewpoints of only just below 0c and temps slightly above 0c.

Indeed, but rarely from the East in my neck of the woods.