Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[RCT]

I work nights at Tesco and we have had a delivery of snow shovels and de-icer. 

Edited October 17, 2013 by RCT

[johnholmes]

Spot on its 17^th  October last time I looked.

 

People stressing already will it/ won’t it cold , latching onto every long range forecast as if it was gospel.

 

Seen another forecast on the forum that’s predicting ‘likely’ Christmas day weather and people getting down about it.

 

Look out the window take a chill pill , lovely autumn colours out there, clear blue skies nice breeze.

 

Have people forgotten the winter of 1878/79 already a mild October followed by -0.3c Dec and -0.7c Jan (CET)

 

If anyone could accurately predict a week ahead let along 10 weeks ahead they would me making a lot of money.

 

a very sensible post amongst some not so sensible!

re the Xmas Day, it has always amazed me the obsession with predicting or trying to predict the weather on ONE day weeks if not months ahead. A bit of fun but not something to get up tight about is it?

[UV-RAY]

It's a bold statement. What can you back this up with?

Look back through the archives of the ECM seasonal updates and compare them with what actually happened, the only thing worse than their seasonal updates are there monthly ones.

[forecaster]

Look back through the archives of the ECM seasonal updates and compare them with what actually happened, the only thing worse than their seasonal updates are there monthly ones.

 

Their verifications look quite reasonable. 

[johnholmes]

how come two folk have looked at the statistics and come to such disparate views?

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

how come two folk have looked at the statistics and come to such disparate views?

As you know John people will always use satistics for their own agenda, I believe it is module 1.01 in polictican's school of fooling all of the people all of the time!!

[AWD]

It's hard to draw a conclusion from a model that 90% of us on here don't see.

[forecaster]

how come two folk have looked at the statistics and come to such disparate views?

 

I don't have any strong views on the subject, hence my choice of the word "reasonable"! From what I can see (not a deep and long look at this subject), that model does well compared with persistence and climatology. I think for a seasonal model, that is quite "reasonable". 

[AWD]

Interesting chart I found on Twitter. A negative AO being forecast for the start of winter;

It would certainly help if that verified.

[feb1991blizzard]

Interesting chart I found on Twitter. A negative AO being forecast for the start of winter;

image.jpg

It would certainly help if that verified.

 

Yes, a really strong signal developing now for cold after mid November, what model is that though?

[sebastiaan1973]

CFS

[AWD]

Yes, a really strong signal developing now for cold after mid November, what model is that though?

CFS v2 ensembles.

[ChartViewer]

Yes, a really strong signal developing now for cold after mid November, what model is that though?

Im with Feb on this

 

We have a twitter image of a negative ao and a Met office non update of the 16-30 day outlook.

 

Signs are starting to look promising for a cold spell after Mid November

 

Now whats the CMA showing

Edited October 17, 2013 by ChartViewer

[feb1991blizzard]

If you look at the last few frames on some of the recent GFS stratospheric charts, they have shown a slight displacement occurring.

Edited October 17, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[ChartViewer]

If you look at the last few frames on some of the recent GFS stratospheric charts, they have shown a slight displacement occurring.

 

Lets hops so I hate mild muck in Autumn. I remember the days of lovely cold Halloween and Bonfire nights, hot soups, fog, proper autumn fair not 15-17 degrees of mild muck.

[feb1991blizzard]

Lets hops so I hate mild muck in Autumn. I remember the days of lovely cold Halloween and Bonfire nights, hot soups, fog, proper autumn fair not 15-17 degrees of mild muck.

 

If your happy with dry and cold then the last few met office 30 day updates have been pretty good for your location anyway.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The Glosea4 model is in the process of being updated on the Metoffice site. I'm just getting some kind of text code when I click the link-

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

Fingers crossed it maintains the N blocking suggestion of previous updates.

[Gael_Force]

Im with Feb on this

 

We have a twitter image of a negative ao and a Met office non update of the 16-30 day outlook.

 

Signs are starting to look promising for a cold spell after Mid November

 

Now whats the CMA showing

 

You don't want to know.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Edit: Glosea4 model back up and still showing September update. Come onnnnnnn, update.

[feb1991blizzard]

Edit: Glosea4 model back up and still showing September update. Come onnnnnnn, update.

 

How high in the atmosphere does this thing model anyway?

[Cheshire Freeze]

How high in the atmosphere does this thing model anyway?

 

No idea of actual dimensions- though I'm sure it's explained somewhere on the Metoffice site. I do know it includes the stratosphere in its modelling though.

 

It seems to do very well at picking out the general distribution of blocking features and troughs. Though if I remember rightly, it didn't catch on to the severely cold March until quite late last season. The CFS seemed to do much better with that situation.

Edited October 17, 2013 by CreweCold

[Gael_Force]

JMA update today: also sees a cold signal for January.

 

 

NH view http://i.imgur.com/ojuHbDb.png

[Cheshire Freeze]

JMA update today: also sees a cold signal for January.

 

 

NH view http://i.imgur.com/ojuHbDb.png

 

Yes, looks as though blocking would be established just N of Scotland with an easterly flow particularly strong across S UK and through the continent.

 

Edit: Yep just looked at the N Hemisphere plots and LP situated across the continent with easterly winds on the N flank. Pressure high to the N in general and especially to the NE of the UK.

Edited October 17, 2013 by CreweCold

[forecaster]

JMA update today: also sees a cold signal for January.

 

 

NH view http://i.imgur.com/ojuHbDb.png

 

 

Rather tricky to get meaningful signals from this when it has the whole world within 1C of average! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Rather tricky to get meaningful signals from this when it has the whole world within 1C of average! 

 

Temperature anomaly outputs are IMO notoriously difficult to take anything meaningful from. Stick to looking at the pressure anomalies and extrapolate from there.