Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[ukpaul]

Don't forget a 1947 like February, but that's enough of Roger bashing now me thinks and comparing him with the like of Madden is very derogatory as I know how hard he works on them and how serious Roger takes his forecasts. He's nailed his colours to the mast now and just because he's predicted mild and mentioned the possibility of a mild xmas the vitriol he's receiving is OTT, so instead of slating lets see some more forecast with reasons why. Sorry Barry this isn't directed at you.

I'm sure Madden works hard on them too, they are exactly the same if they try and claim some superior knowledge as to how things will be on a given day. If someone like that makes such crass pronouncements then they deserve to be bashed. Madden is crazed thinking he can, so it's only fair to say the same here.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm sure Madden works hard on them too, they are exactly the same if they try and claim some superior knowledge as to how things will be on a given day. If someone like that makes such crass pronouncements then they deserve to be bashed. Madden is crazed thinking he can, so it's only fair to say the same here.

 

RJS has gone to great lengths to explain his methodology on this forum and doesn't make up BS excuses if things go wrong. He clearly doesn't bias his forecasts towards cold in order to appease the masses, but remains honest and sticks with what the data and his methods show.

It's completely unfair to relate him to Madden.

[bobbydog]

why do people keep banging on about bloody long range charts as forecasts!! for those of you new to this, (and those who are not but should know better!) they will change frequently.

what we are looking for amongst these frequent changes is trends over a period of time. i.e the most common scenario which appears.

even then, it does not mean it will happen.

some have mentioned the GFS 'FI'.  anyone who model watches on a regular basis will know that this is subject to wild variations and it only goes out to two weeks!! which incidentally, as of now, takes us to the start of november- two thirds into autumn, NOT winter!

 

as of now, nature says we're doing well-

 

[UV-RAY]

I'm sure Madden works hard on them too, they are exactly the same if they try and claim some superior knowledge as to how things will be on a given day. If someone like that makes such crass pronouncements then they deserve to be bashed. Madden is crazed thinking he can, so it's only fair to say the same here.

Well you know the answer then, produce your own so we can all scrutinise yours and add comments.

[ukpaul]

RJS has gone to great lengths to explain his methodology on this forum and doesn't make up BS excuses if things go wrong. He clearly doesn't bias his forecasts towards cold in order to appease the masses, but remains honest and sticks with what the data and his methods show.

It's completely unfair to relate him to Madden.

 

That all may well be so but anyone who reads a LRF from anyone thinking that it is much more than a roll of the dice is deluding themselves. I'm sure that he makes his forecatss honestly but that's no reason to give it the time of day.

[UV-RAY]

That all may well be so but anyone who reads a LRF from anyone thinking that it is much more than a roll of the dice is deluding themselves. I'm sure that he makes his forecatss honestly but that's no reason to give it the time of day.

So why read them then?

 

Also unlike the Madden's of this world Roger doesn't produce his forecast for financial gain and if you could be bothered to read up how he comes to his conclusions of dice throwing then you may be a little more appreciative of how much work he puts into them, as most do on here even though I myself am not a big believer in them I certainly appreciate how much hard work these guys put into them.

Edited October 18, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[ukpaul]

Well you know the answer then, produce your own so we can all scrutinise yours and add comments.

You miss the point, to do so would be to merely add to the noise. In a relatively short time the strat thread will be worth following and then the models will give a general idea as to a couple of weeks ahead. I understand that this is about 'hopes' and such but I don't understand how, with previous experience, anyone gives such long range predictions the time of day.

Edited October 18, 2013 by ukpaul

[ukpaul]

Gavin quoted from it so I didn't have to click to read it!I'm interested in probabilities and such but when someone tries to turn it into a prediction that's where I part company.

 

I understand that many will be taking greater note of them than myself.AFTER EDIT: I believe I read his methodology in a previous year and his forecast wasn't accurate. There's the rub, no matter how much backs up the forecast the weather will make a fool of it; so revel in its glorious unpredictability and tendency to leave forecasters with furrowed brows, sometimes even within 24 hours!

Edited October 18, 2013 by ukpaul

[Skullzrulerz]

why do people keep banging on about bloody long range charts as forecasts!! for those of you new to this, (and those who are not but should know better!) they will change frequently.

what we are looking for amongst these frequent changes is trends over a period of time. i.e the most common scenario which appears.

even then, it does not mean it will happen.

some have mentioned the GFS 'FI'.  anyone who model watches on a regular basis will know that this is subject to wild variations and it only goes out to two weeks!! which incidentally, as of now, takes us to the start of november- two thirds into autumn, NOT winter!

 

as of now, nature says we're doing well-

 

Yes snow cover is doing well.Not a good thing that the snow is melting from below.

[bobbydog]

Yes snow cover is doing well.Not a good thing that the snow is melting from below.

 

of course the snow cover will fluctuate as it grows.

 

2009/2010 was one of the best winters we've had in recent years and here's the snow cover on this day back then-

 

 

see my point?

[Methuselah]

You miss the point, to do so would be to merely add to the noise. In a relatively short time the start thread will be worth following and then the models will give a general idea as to a couple of weeks ahead. I understand that this is about 'hopes' and such but I don't understand how, with previous experience, anyone gives such long range predictions the time of day.

Whilst I sympathize with that view, ukpaul, there are clearly three distinct types of forecast: Maddenesque ramp jobs; wishy-washy horoscope-type efforts that can mean either everything or nothing, depending on one's wishes; scientific predictions, such as GP's, RJS's and others'...IMO, the first two can be dismissed out-of-hand, as being pure guesswork, but the last cannot. It's not just the 'rightness' that is important; testability, methodology and the explanations of the results make them valid... 

[ukpaul]

Whilst I sympathize with that view, ukpaul, there are clearly three distinct types of forecast: Maddenesque ramp jobs; wishy-washy horoscope-type efforts that can mean either everything or nothing, depending on one's wishes; scientific predictions, such as GP's, RJS's and others'...IMO, the first two can be dismissed out-of-hand, as being pure guesswork, but the last cannot. It's not just the 'rightness' that is important; testability, methodology and the explanations of the results make them valid... 

I understand where you're coming from but, whilst the latter may be more accurate, they are still not reliable, our position on the globe means that the slightest changes can switch the weather on the ground quite markedly. To me, he makes the mistake of mentioning dates, why would someone who is in the latter camp do that?

 

I also realise that being sceptical about LRFs of all sorts in a thread that thrives on them isn't going to do down well!

Edited October 18, 2013 by ukpaul

[pandit-scholar]

Enough of Roger J Smith bashing. I am hoping for a cold and snowy winter and I don't agree with his winter forecast. However at the end of the day it doesn't matter what I think, as the weather will do what it wants to do, and thus it's too early to say whether his forecast is right or wrong as winter hasn't started.

The best time for critical appraisal of winter forecasts is at the end of winter and not now!

[Skullzrulerz]

Enough of Roger J Smith bashing. I am hoping for a cold and snowy winter and I don't agree with his winter forecast. However at the end of the day it doesn't matter what I think, as the weather will do what it wants to do, and thus it's too early to say whether his forecast is right or wrong as winter hasn't started.The best time for critical appraisal of winter forecasts is at the end of winter and not now!

We just have to wait and see.No forcast is 100% right.

[Methuselah]

I understand where you're coming from but, whilst the latter may be more accurate, they are still not reliable, our position on the globe means that the slightest changes can switch the weather on the ground quite markedly. To me, he makes the mistake of mentioning dates, why would someone who is in the latter camp do that?

 

I also realise that being sceptical about LRFs of all sorts in a thread that thrives on them isn't going to do down well!

Well, yes; predictions for precise dates do leave me wondering, too - I must say - so you do make a fair point, IMO...Folks only quibble about blizzards on Jan 12 after someone has predicted them? I have no problem whatsoever with, say, ⁺/- 3 days. Doesn't every truly scientific prediction carry a degree of uncertainty?

[pandit-scholar]

We just have to wait and see.No forcast is 100% right.

I agree!! I think this winter will be very difficult to call especially at this stage.

[Relativistic]

I think all forecasts from the likes of RJS, forecasts where the methodology is clearly explained, are worth ones time to look at. Even if some of the different methods are diametrical opposites, none should be dismissed. If one method clearly isn't working and one is fairing slightly better then it's pointing us in the right direction for future success. We know which ideas to take further. This is how science progresses, so all LRFs that do have some theory behind them should be looked at, and slowly we will get somewhere.

Edited October 18, 2013 by 22nov10blast

[MrSunshine]

Don't know if anyone has heard of this young lad called Steve but he's good for a laugh, here's his latest Winter forecast http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iy4bK1dLcS0

[John Badrick]

RJS has gone to great lengths to explain his methodology on this forum and doesn't make up BS excuses if things go wrong. He clearly doesn't bias his forecasts towards cold in order to appease the masses, but remains honest and sticks with what the data and his methods show.It's completely unfair to relate him to Madden.

I think it's fair to relate him to someone who is being so specific, he is quoting dates which is ludicrous. Record mild temps on Christmas day or raging blizzards on Christmas day, two different forecast but with the same motive....trying to get a reaction!!! I have learnt over the years not to get sucked in and emotional, especially at such an early stage in Autumn.Listen to the more informative folk on here ie chiono,Recretos,SK,Lorenzo, Interitis,Johnholmes,CC,to name but a few

[feb1991blizzard]

Don't know if anyone has heard of this young lad called Steve but he's good for a laugh, here's his latest Winter forecast http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iy4bK1dLcS0

 

Im only 3 minutes in and its the FKN funniest thing ive ever seen, im  PSing myself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

Stopped at 6 minutes, my stomachs hurting it so funny, will watch the rest tomorrow.

[Methuselah]

I didn't last that long, either...

[Mark Neal.]

I won't bother watching it then...!

[feb1991blizzard]

It will be that time of the year again in a few weeks time when hopefully we will get early thoughts of the Winter forecast, wont be Stewart this year though.

 

[MrSunshine]

It will be that time of the year again in a few weeks time when hopefully we will get early thoughts of the Winter forecast, wont be Stewart this year though.

 

Or whipper snapper Steve! lol