Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[jonboy]

could you give some info Roger on the ground breaking research and what influences the signals you're getting this far out. The snowmaggedon forecasts we get every year are usually explained by the suns influence on the jet sstream, I'm interested in how the opposite is forecast ie milder tHan everage.cheers

 

Hi John there is a whole separate topic I think in the learners area where Roger has put details about his methods and research. In the most simplistic terms he believes key planets affect how weather systems track and behave and he has had some notable success over the years but it is complex to say the least

[syed2878]

credit where credits due rjs forecast has a lot of research behind it that is 1 of the reason his forecasts worth looking at.

[Jaffusmaximus]

@ BornFromTheVoid

 

Well said! I am very limited in my knowledge of weather forecasting but I can tell an honest LRForcaster from a Quack. RJS or (MT Cranium as we know him over here) appears to go through alot of effort to provide honest and logic based weather forecaster that are not sensationalist or OTT and I for one appreciate his efforts!

 

Whether RJS is proved right or wrong in the long term he is part of the  stepping stone to a better knowledge for us all regarding LRF's!

[Methuselah]

Here you go: RJS's methodology. 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75437-roger-smiths-developing-lrf-model/page-3?hl=winter+forecast#entry2623031

[UV-RAY]

Here you go: RJS's methodology. 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75437-roger-smiths-developing-lrf-model/page-3?hl=winter+forecast#entry2623031

I've read this a few times and still struggle to get my head around some of the parameters that Roger mentions, it's a fascinating read none the less and hopefully one which the knockers will read and try to grasp the concept behind the forecasts.

[Conor Sherwin]

Sorry, Is this better?

yes

[Mucka]

Ah come on, not even a single flake their over the Republic of Ireland 

Didn't see a single flake all last winter in my part of South Manchester. Winter 2012/2013 was dreadful and even more frustrating than blowtorch Winters of the past as it so often held promise only to be blown away by a shortwave or for any wintry ppn to evaporate due to the shadow effect.

[picog]

What is really sad about J.Madden is that he apparently think that there was major Gulfstream slowdown between 2009 and 2010, which he often illustrates like that:

 

 

However it's not true. This image shows results of RTOFS model and "slowdown" is a result of changes in model, not in ocean currents. This change occured between sep 18 2009 and sep 19 2009. You can check this here:

http://data.nodc.noaa.gov/opendap/ncep/rtofs/2009/200909/ofs.20090918/surface/

 

18/19 sep 2009 difference:

 

 

What is even more sad is that I send him an email about this issue in august 2011.

Did he reply?

[hillbilly]

Didn't see a single flake all last winter in my part of South Manchester. Winter 2012/2013 was dreadful and even more frustrating than blowtorch Winters of the past as it so often held promise only to be blown away by a shortwave or for any wintry ppn to evaporate due to the shadow effect.

Amazing how places vary,the extended winter November to april here I would say was worse than 2010.We had the most air frosts since 1979 beating 2010 by a mile and the biggest drifts since at least 1995 or the early 80s

[sebastiaan1973]

According to the inventor of the OPI the winter of 2014 will be dominated by NAO plus. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/

 

His name is Ricardo.

[UV-RAY]

According to the inventor of the OPI the winter of 2014 will be dominated by NAO plus. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/

 

His name is Ricardo.

If my memory serves me right they called last winter right also?

[snowking]

According to the inventor of the OPI the winter of 2014 will be dominated by NAO plus. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/His name is Ricardo.

It is yet another interesting one to monitor. It's difficult to get your head around given much of the theory is published in Italian but I see they are currently writing it up for publication in English which will be useful.One thing just to say, from what I can make out from that forum thread it's a positive AO as opposed to +NAO that is being predicted there. Whilst that's still not good news necessarily, we can still see a negative NAO under positive AO conditions. It's rarer ill grant you but not an impossibilitySK

[smithyweather]

The latest GFS run has verified and now we have -6c uppers to south east scotland next Saturday. Come on upgrade further!

 

It would be nice to see some snow at the end of the month. The gfs gives me 7c maxes with 0c mins from Friday onwards which will be perfect. Nice sunny and crisp. My idea October weather! 

Edited October 19, 2013 by smithyweather

[chionomaniac]

According to the inventor of the OPI the winter of 2014 will be dominated by NAO plus. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/

 

His name is Ricardo.

From what I have read from the dodgy google translate the research looks really interesting and I can't wait for the English paper translation. 

[bluearmy]

The latest GFS run has verified and now we have -6c uppers to south east scotland next Saturday. Come on upgrade further!

 

It would be nice to see some snow at the end of the month. The gfs gives me 7c maxes with 0c mins from Friday onwards which will be perfect. Nice sunny and crisp. My idea October weather! 

Smithy, it cant verify till next weekend!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Might it be time to get the ramping thread going?

 

Edited October 19, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[feb1991blizzard]

From what I have read from the dodgy google translate the research looks really interesting and I can't wait for the English paper translation. 

 

Does not sound like great news though.

[Gael_Force]

According to the inventor of the OPI the winter of 2014 will be dominated by NAO plus. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/

 

His name is Ricardo.

 

Was that a double plus I saw - does that mean anything or just a typo? The month has many days to run, perhaps they see no more large snowfall and even some decline.

 

I'm not surprised to be honest; there seems to be a lot of warm looking maps in the LRF posts. Having said that, I'm firmly of the belief that we are now in a phase where accepted correlations and teleconnections may be less useful and where 'expect the unexpected' may be the order of the day.

[UV-RAY]

Was that a double plus I saw - does that mean anything or just a typo? The month has many days to run, perhaps they see no more large snowfall and even some decline.

 

I'm not surprised to be honest; there seems to be a lot of warm looking maps in the LRF posts. Having said that, I'm firmly of the belief that we are now in a phase where accepted correlations and teleconnections may be less useful and where 'expect the unexpected' may be the order of the day.

I would go along with that as we are in relative uncharted waters nowadays with UV output affecting both the jet stream and Azores high cell IMO.

[chionomaniac]

Does not sound like great news though.

Long term if this research proves to be valid, it looks like great news to be able to predict the AO in Oct - obviously we will need to see how the research hold up when any paper is released. 

[chionomaniac]

The latest GFS run has verified and now we have -6c uppers to south east scotland next Saturday. Come on upgrade further!

 

It would be nice to see some snow at the end of the month. The gfs gives me 7c maxes with 0c mins from Friday onwards which will be perfect. Nice sunny and crisp. My idea October weather! 

And exactly what relevence does this have to the upcoming winter, Smithy? Please post in an the appropriate thread - model moods would be best for this post.

[feb1991blizzard]

Long term if this research proves to be valid, it looks like great news to be able to predict the AO in Oct - obviously we will need to see how the research hold up when any paper is released. 

 

Sorry, I meant if a +AO verifies then it wont be very good news for Snow fans

[bobbydog]

well, here's some interesting food for thought.- bearing in mind, no long range forecaster will get it right every time, some are not worth listening to (the maddens of this world for example) but some deserve credit where its due-

 

RJS's forecast for autumn, produced in JULY note the date-

 

Posted 13 July 2013 - 18:35

Here's a brief summary of what my research output shows for temperature trends alone ... the rest of the summer season is mainly on the warm side of normal through late August. Then September becomes more variable and close to normal. A two-week interval from late September to about the tenth of October looks quite cold (-3 anomalies) then it gradually warms to above normal through late October into mid-November. After that it turns rather cold again, nothing on the scale of 2010 but coldish.

 

Then I considered what those trends might mean when integrated with analogues for circulation type/

 

This led me to the conclusion that large-scale blocking over Europe already underway and likely to return several times in August, would transition to a more mobile westerly Atlantic-dominated flow in September, with some warmer intervals possibly minor returns to the summer pattern. Then this would evolve into more of a northerly in early October possibly due to late September retrogression breaking up the zonal pattern and a Greenland high briefly establishing itself as dominant. That would be followed by a gradual return to blocking over north-central Europe and a southeast to south type circulation in later October and that would be followed by high-latitude zonal flow by early November.

 

The implications of all that for precip would be continued very dry into August, increasingly normal amounts late in the month then a rather wet September especially in northern parts of Britain and Ireland, then decreasing amounts in October with possibly a rather dry end to that month, followed by a north-south split in November with very wet conditions likely at times in the north and near normal overall in the south.

 

I will perhaps revise this from any new research done before mid-August but I doubt that I am going to do enough of that to change this output more than marginally so this will probably be a final forecast from me on this season. The winter output looks generally rather cold again. Will be working on that as usual during the early autumn.

 

 

not a million miles away from 3 months previous.......

Edited October 19, 2013 by bobbydog

[Don]

 

I will perhaps revise this from any new research done before mid-August but I doubt that I am going to do enough of that to change this output more than marginally so this will probably be a final forecast from me on this season. The winter output looks generally rather cold again. Will be working on that as usual during the early autumn.

 

not a million miles away from 3 months previous.......

 

Yes, looks pretty good doesn't it.  A shame that the Winter output has changed though as he was expecting another cold season back then.

Edited October 19, 2013 by Don

[bobbydog]

Yes, looks pretty good doesn't it.  A shame that the Winter output has changed though as he was expecting another cold season back then.

 

like i said, it doesn't mean all his forecasts will be right. i'm sure he doesn't claim they will be but this was really aimed at those who have rubbished his winter forecast. you never know, maybe he was right about winter back then...