Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I'm going for a blocked set up in January and February with some SSW occurring. I really don't get why some people think because the charts are throwing up some mad zonal conditions, that it will last throughout the whole winter period! Didn't we see egg on the faces of the models earlier on in the month predicting mild conditions all the way through the month, then a sudden flip with a gusty chilly period only 5-7 days after. The same thing could happen in the next week or so. It only takes one different ingredient or pattern change. We may learn some day....

[Buriedundersnow]

Sorry, for being so curmudgeonly, but why are the CFS's blocked charts any more believable than its zonals?

 

 

we weren't saying they were more believable just merely pointing out that the CFS is showing blocked charts again after shying away from them the past days

Edited October 18, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Gavin Hannah]

Hey peeps! Just thought i would echo whats already been said. If models were spot on with their LRF, then someone somewherd woukd be very rich and we wouldnt be here discussing winter prospects.

Just bear that mind folks. ;-)

[Yarmy]

Dosent show much greenie blocking anyway.

 

Give it 5 minutes.

[Jimmyh]

handing out the prozac very early on guys. Has last years winter taught us nothing?? spectacular then nothin happened always on the wrong side of cold.

 

We need a damn could windy gales rain and stuff to rip the leaves off the trees so we can quieten down in November.

 

I believe this winter could have some stings in its tail. Judging by the hype i may stop reading on here till maybe mid November when i think the signals will be better than now

[throwoff]

People do need to calm down.

 

It's October...

[Summer Sun]

A bit more from Roger J Smith's winter thoughts, a rather mild Christmas day maybe even record breaking

 

 

Meanwhile the chances of a white Christmas seem rather low from this perspective, with a peak in temperatures right on the 25th in the research output, in fact Christmas Day is indicated as having the best chance of all dates this winter to set a record high temperature which would be 14 to 17 C in most regions. Not saying it will necessarily be that mild but above 12 would not surprise me at all given the strength of this mild signal (which then fades away rapidly by New Years).

 

The coldest days of the winter are indicated to be around 10-14 January which in context of an otherwise rather mild winter brings up an analogue with Jan 1987. It may then turn out to be a case of a bland winter with one very notable cold spell which will bring a certain person in from the ledge anyway.

 

 

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

Edited October 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[stewfox]

A bit more from Roger J Smith's winter thoughts, a rather mild Christmas day maybe even record breaking

 

Meanwhile the chances of a white Christmas seem rather low from this perspective, with a peak in temperatures right on the 25th in the research output, in fact Christmas Day is indicated as having the best chance of all dates this winter to set a record high temperature which would be 14 to 17 C in most regions. Not saying it will necessarily be that mild but above 12 would not surprise me at all given the strength of this mild signal (which then fades away rapidly by New Years).

The coldest days of the winter are indicated to be around 10-14 January which in context of an otherwise rather mild winter brings up an analogue with Jan 1987. It may then turn out to be a case of a bland winter with one very notable cold spell which will bring a certain person in from the ledge anyway.

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

 

 

Please to see 10-14 Jan 2014 being mentioned again ties in with my theory

 

-----------------------------------------

 

stewfox, on 18 Sept 2013 - 20:21, said:

Some of the coldest Jan CET on record , can we see a pattern ??  Note the 4 in the year.

1684     -3.0c

1814  -2.9c

1740  -2.8c

1940  -1.4c

1784   -0.6c

Other factors

In September 1813 they were saying Bruce Forsyth should retire and look what happened in Jan 1814.

In September 1683 the artic ice recovered by 60%. 'Recovery was the name of the day' Look what happened in 1684.(ref sceptical science)

In September 1939 war was declared, we see today war declared on Asda prices and look what happened in 1940

In more detail

.

1684 , 1814, 1740 , 1940 and 1784 we have '14' as a re-occurring theme, coincidence , don't think so... so its looking even better for mega cold. I forecast wide spread blizzards particularly around the 4th 14th (very big event) 24th Jan 2014

Full details can be found on Piers website  http://www.weatheraction.com/ 

--------------------------------------------

Edited October 18, 2013 by stewfox

[Yarmy]

Please to see 10-14 Jan 2014 being mentioned again ties in with my theory

 

 

 

stewfox, on 18 Sept 2013 - 20:21, said:

Some of the coldest Jan CET on record , can we see a pattern ??  Note the 4 in the year.

1684     -3.0c

1814  -2.9c

1740  -2.8c

1940  -1.4c

1784   -0.6c

Other factors

In September 1813 they were saying Bruce Forsyth should retire and look what happened in Jan 1814.

In September 1683 the artic ice recovered by 60%. 'Recovery was the name of the day' Look what happened in 1684.(ref sceptical science)

In September 1939 war was declared, we see today war declared on Asda prices and look what happened in 1940

In more detail

.

1684 , 1814, 1740 , 1940 and 1784 we have '14' as a re-occurring theme, coincidence , don't think so... so its looking even better for mega cold. I forecast wide spread blizzards particularly around the 4th 14th (very big event) 24th Jan 2014

Full details can be found on Piers website  http://www.weatheraction.com/ 

 

Definitely worth a repost.

 

Must say I'm glad I know what the weather's going to be like on the 25th December.

[smithyweather]

I think 17c on 25th december is impossible here

[Summer Sun]

I think 17c on 25th december is impossible here

 

Banff (Aberdeenshire) hit 16.1c on December 26th 2011 so 17c isn't impossible for your area

[Captain Shortwave]

Banff (Aberdeenshire) hit 16.1c on December 26th 2011 so 17c isn't impossible for your area

But remember the Foehn effect is a major player in Eastern Scotland which is the major reason for that area seeing high temperatures in certain south westerly set ups. That might not happen in Northern Ireland

Edited October 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Methuselah]

I think that it was 16 in London on Xmas day 1974?

[stewfox]

Definitely worth a repost.

 

Must say I'm glad I know what the weather's going to be like on the 25th December.

I'll do anything for rep

[smithyweather]

Banff (Aberdeenshire) hit 16.1c on December 26th 2011 so 17c isn't impossible for your area

Considering the record high is 13c and I am at 55N it is pretty much impossible. 

A bit more from Roger J Smith's winter thoughts, a rather mild Christmas day maybe even record breaking

 

 

 

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

What 'Signal'

[Buriedundersnow]

well FI looking a little better from a cold point of view on the GFS 12z but as usual it is FI so not to be taken too seriously but still good to see instead of all the zonal muck.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Considering the record high is 13c and I am at 55N it is pretty much impossible. 

 

Is the the record high for your personal station, or an official station nearby?

[John Badrick]

A bit more from Roger J Smith's winter thoughts, a rather mild Christmas day maybe even record breakingI tend to switch off and stop reading when forecasters start talking about specific dates, it's ridiculous specifying dates this far out as soon as a date is mentioned 2 months out a LR forecasters credibility drops, if someone thinks they can tell you what the temperature is going to be on Christmas Day 2 month's in advance, then they are just looking in to their crystal ballhttp://www.gavsweathervids.com/rogerjsmith.html

Edited October 18, 2013 by John Badrick

[smithyweather]

Is the the record high for your personal station, or an official station nearby?

No belfast has a record high of 14c so I thought it would be colder here. can't find data for here.

[BornFromTheVoid]

No belfast has a record high of 14c so I thought it would be colder here. can't find data for here.

 

Although much more exposed, Malin Head has a December high of 16.8C. That can't be much more than 25 miles from you?

I'd guess your record high would be closer to 15C.

[Barry12]

I'm still waiting for the snow hurricane and record breaking cold temperatures that were forecast last winter from Roger...

[smithyweather]

Why? Belfast is warmer.

[ukpaul]

Definitely worth a repost.

 

Must say I'm glad I know what the weather's going to be like on the 25th December.

Anyone who makes claims about weather on a day a couple of months hence really isn't worth anyone's time. Straight in the mental dustbin for that one (joining Madden etc.).

[Barry12]

Anyone who makes claims about weather on a day a couple of months hence really isn't worth anyone's time. Straight in the mental dustbin for that one (joining Madden etc.).

 

Anyone who forecasts a snow hurricane in the UK isn't worth anyone's time to be honest.

Edited October 18, 2013 by Barry95

[UV-RAY]

I'm still waiting for the snow hurricane and record breaking cold temperatures that were forecast last winter from Roger...

Don't forget a 1947 like February, but that's enough of Roger bashing now me thinks and comparing him with the like of Madden is very derogatory as I know how hard he works on them and how serious Roger takes his forecasts. He's nailed his colours to the mast now and just because he's predicted mild and mentioned the possibility of a mild xmas the vitriol he's receiving is OTT, so instead of slating lets see some more forecast with reasons why. Sorry Barry this isn't directed at you.