Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Eugene]

Nothing scientific here but is anybody else starting to get a really bad feeling about the upcoming winter?

 

I know its still very early days but i'm just getting the feeling its going to be an atlantic steamroller fest with just occasional ridges of HP/ Toppling Northerlies if we are lucky, I also think next summer is going to be very warm indeed, I think after a colder period we are entering another warm phase, I know Ian Brown will definitely agree with me but does anyone else

[NorthernRab]

Nothing scientific here but is anybody else starting to get a really bad feeling about the upcoming winter?

 

Bad day at work? 

[feb1991blizzard]

Nothing scientific here but is anybody else starting to get a really bad feeling about the upcoming winter?

 

I know its still very early days but i'm just getting the feeling its going to be an atlantic steamroller fest with just occasional ridges of HP/ Toppling Northerlies if we are lucky, I also think next summer is going to be very warm indeed, I think after a colder period we are entering another warm phase, I know Ian Brown will definitely agree with me but does anyone else

 

The first half of it yes but I think we may hit a purple patch in late jan and have a stonking Feb, really not sure but if you forced me to make a prediction that would be it, I still think at some stage before xmas we will get a cold snap of some description, we need the compositing site back on so the boys on the strat thread can build their analogues.

[Eugene]

The first half of it yes but I think we may hit a purple patch in late jan and have a stonking Feb, really not sure but if you forced me to make a prediction that would be it, I still think at some stage before xmas we will get a cold snap of some description, we need the compositing site back on so the boys on the strat thread can build their analogues.

 

 

Or hit a purple patch in late March and have a stonking April, just by then HLB is slightly too late

[ukpaul]

 I remember the days of lovely cold Halloween and Bonfire nights, hot soups, fog, proper autumn fair....

That's more like it, something poetic.

 

These 'I feel that' posts are just worthless, at least try to make them atmospheric if they have no scientific basis!

[Bradowl]

Nothing scientific here but is anybody else starting to get a really bad feeling about the upcoming winter?

 

I know its still very early days but i'm just getting the feeling its going to be an atlantic steamroller fest with just occasional ridges of HP/ Toppling Northerlies if we are lucky, I also think next summer is going to be very warm indeed, I think after a colder period we are entering another warm phase, I know Ian Brown will definitely agree with me but does anyone else

 

I've a feeling this is going to happen too, lots of wind and rain and just shortlived cold snaps.

 

We're due a winter like this after last 3 relatively cold snowy winters.

[simshady]

It's not going to stay warm and wet forever. Things can and will change.

[feb1991blizzard]

I think the compositing site is back on, just doing a few tests.

[Snowman.]

Nothing scientific here but is anybody else starting to get a really bad feeling about the upcoming winter?

 

I know its still very early days but i'm just getting the feeling its going to be an atlantic steamroller fest with just occasional ridges of HP/ Toppling Northerlies if we are lucky, I also think next summer is going to be very warm indeed, I think after a colder period we are entering another warm phase, I know Ian Brown will definitely agree with me but does anyone else

After visiting Australia for six weeks I'm DONE with hot warm weather.

 

I'm waiting with open arms for a cold winter.

[UV-RAY]

I've a feeling this is going to happen too, lots of wind and rain and just shortlived cold snaps. We're due a winter like this after last 3 relatively cold snowy winters.

Not around here we haven't, the last two winters have been average or below for snow and frost with only March which is spring coming at above average.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Nothing scientific here but is anybody else starting to get a really bad feeling about the upcoming winter?

 

I know its still very early days but i'm just getting the feeling its going to be an atlantic steamroller fest with just occasional ridges of HP/ Toppling Northerlies if we are lucky, I also think next summer is going to be very warm indeed, I think after a colder period we are entering another warm phase, I know Ian Brown will definitely agree with me but does anyone else

 

Agree about Nov to mid Jan, is normally mild and zonal, but from mid Jan to early April, who knows, should not be zonal,

[fergieweather]

The trouble with the ECM seasonal model is that it's consistent, as in consistently wrong.

It's a bold statement. What can you back this up with?

 Well, if it were so worthless we wouldn't bother delving-through it on each issue date and equally, our colleagues in Exeter wouldn't bother citing it so routinely in longer-range discussion briefings. It's one of a number of tools - not used in isolation. Equally, the EC32's form the basis for much of the 15-30d UKMO simplified web outlooks. To dismiss these ECMWF products, which form an important component in operational MR-LR forecast deliberation, is plain daft. The scientific community don't.

[damianslaw]

Not around here we haven't, the last two winters have been average or below for snow and frost with only March which is spring coming at above average.

 

 

Indeed whilst last winter saw some decent cold weather at times, particularly in January and March, on the snow front it was fairly average and we had a very mild 4 week period mid Dec - mid Jan which many seem to forget. 2011/2012 in the main was very dissapointing on the snow front with a few showery outbreaks early in December and only one proper fall on the 4th Feb. It was predominantly mild with one cold spell early in February. If we look at the stats for the last 10 winters, 5 have been milder than average, 2 exceptionally so, 1 average, 4 colder than average but only 1 of these notably so. The bias has been for milder or near average winters.

 

03/04 - milder than average with shortlived though decent snowfalls.

04/05 - much milder than average with only one cold spell at end of feb with a bit of snow

05/06 - average again with one or two shortlived snowfalls in late Dec and late Feb.

06/07- exceptionally mild, snowfall almost non-existant apart from one fall in early Feb.

07/08- exceptionally mild, terrible on the snowfall front.

08/09 - little colder than average, some decent cold spells early in Dec, just after christmas into New Year and most notably early Feb which was very snowy, but also a couple of very mild spells one before christmas and second half of Feb.

09/10- notably colder than average - yes a good one for bitter cold and heavy long lasting snow.

10/11 - slightly colder than average overall - second week Jan onwards was predominantly mild, but yes an exceptionally cold snowy December.

11/12 - milder than average, some shortlived snow showers early-mid Dec and one decent cold spell early Feb with snow.

12/13 - slightly colder than average, an odd winter it has to be said, a cold start with some shortlived snow showers, a very mild 4 week spell mid Dec-mid Jan, a cold snowy spell mid-late Jan, a chilly Feb with some snow and then a very cold March with lots of snow.

 

So apart from winter 09/10 and Dec 10 we have seen little sustained proper cold weather in recent winters. The 10 years before show a very similiar pattern barring winter 95/96 and the first half of 96/97.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just wondering if it is physically possible to massive thunderstorms with copious heavy snow, wouldn't the sky look brilliant at night with horizontally falling flakes the size of golf balls but lit up by fork lightening all over the sky rather than having to lampost, and what charts would deliver it? sub 500 heights with a BCE maybe?, like to hear professional forecasters views.

[bobbydog]

 

Well, if it were so worthless we wouldn't bother delving-through it on each issue date and equally, our colleagues in Exeter wouldn't bother citing it so routinely in longer-range discussion briefings. It's one of a number of tools - not used in isolation. Equally, the EC32's form the basis for much of the 15-30d UKMO simplified web outlooks. To dismiss these ECMWF products, which form an important component in operational MR-LR forecast deliberation, is plain daft. The scientific community don't.

 

just to back you up on that ian, many people seem to mis-interpret these types of chart. i would direct them to this page from the MetO website, explaining the use of long range probability maps- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/user-guide

 

oh, and nice to see you back ian

Edited October 17, 2013 by bobbydog

[Conor Sherwin]

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uknovember2013coldlaternwsesplitearlyon/

[Buriedundersnow]

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uknovember2013coldlaternwsesplitearlyon/

 

 

i wouldnt listen too much to what that guy is saying he's calling for a cold spell at the end of this month when there is nothing like that showing on the models.

[feb1991blizzard]

I totally agree with Ian Fergusson that they are not worthless, I only really got back into weather in 09 again after 12 years of not bothering, the CFS forecasts were very good in the next winter (09/10), I have to say though, the last couple of years, I don't think seasonal models have covered themselves in glory, that said, they are to be used by professionals who have knowledge of not only teleconnective issues but inherent model biases, also, the more we start slating them, the less data will be made available to the public, now who on here would want a build up to a winter where all you have is the countryfile forecast each week to go on?

[Mark Neal.]

Just wondering if it is physically possible to massive thunderstorms with copious heavy snow, wouldn't the sky look brilliant at night with horizontally falling flakes the size of golf balls but lit up by fork lightening all over the sky rather than having to lampost, and what charts would deliver it? sub 500 heights with a BCE maybe?, like to hear professional forecasters views.

. I believe there was lightning in the SE when they had heavy snow in Nov/Dec 2010? Interesting to see responses on this..!

[Gaz1985]

Indeed whilst last winter saw some decent cold weather at times, particularly in January and March, on the snow front it was fairly average and we had a very mild 4 week period mid Dec - mid Jan which many seem to forget. 2011/2012 in the main was very dissapointing on the snow front with a few showery outbreaks early in December and only one proper fall on the 4th Feb. It was predominantly mild with one cold spell early in February. If we look at the stats for the last 10 winters, 5 have been milder than average, 2 exceptionally so, 1 average, 4 colder than average but only 1 of these notably so. The bias has been for milder or near average winters.

 

03/04 - milder than average with shortlived though decent snowfalls.

04/05 - much milder than average with only one cold spell at end of feb with a bit of snow

05/06 - average again with one or two shortlived snowfalls in late Dec and late Feb.

06/07- exceptionally mild, snowfall almost non-existant apart from one fall in early Feb.

07/08- exceptionally mild, terrible on the snowfall front.

08/09 - little colder than average, some decent cold spells early in Dec, just after christmas into New Year and most notably early Feb which was very snowy, but also a couple of very mild spells one before christmas and second half of Feb.

09/10- notably colder than average - yes a good one for bitter cold and heavy long lasting snow.

10/11 - slightly colder than average overall - second week Jan onwards was predominantly mild, but yes an exceptionally cold snowy December.

11/12 - milder than average, some shortlived snow showers early-mid Dec and one decent cold spell early Feb with snow.

12/13 - slightly colder than average, an odd winter it has to be said, a cold start with some shortlived snow showers, a very mild 4 week spell mid Dec-mid Jan, a cold snowy spell mid-late Jan, a chilly Feb with some snow and then a very cold March with lots of snow.

 

So apart from winter 09/10 and Dec 10 we have seen little sustained proper cold weather in recent winters. The 10 years before show a very similiar pattern barring winter 95/96 and the first half of 96/97.

 

Last Winter was very odd with the snow distribution especially in Greater Manchester, some relatives who live near Stockport had hardly any snow settle, yet here we had a number of measurable events.

Edited October 17, 2013 by Gaz1985

[johnholmes]

 Well, if it were so worthless we wouldn't bother delving-through it on each issue date and equally, our colleagues in Exeter wouldn't bother citing it so routinely in longer-range discussion briefings. It's one of a number of tools - not used in isolation. Equally, the EC32's form the basis for much of the 15-30d UKMO simplified web outlooks. To dismiss these ECMWF products, which form an important component in operational MR-LR forecast deliberation, is plain daft. The scientific community don't.

 

Can I ask how reliable do Exeter feel the 32 day ECMWF is? How do they compare it to their own in house outputs in terms of accuracy at such long time scales.

Hopefully you can answer this please?

Last Winter was very odd with the snow distribution especially in Greater Manchester, some relatives who live near Stockport had hardly any snow settle, yet here we had a number of measurable events.

 

the difference between north and south of the city, or is my geography totally up the spout; also a height difference?

[bobbydog]

I totally agree with Ian Fergusson that they are not worthless, I only really got back into weather in 09 again after 12 years of not bothering, the CFS forecasts were very good in the next winter (09/10), I have to say though, the last couple of years, I don't think seasonal models have covered themselves in glory, that said, they are to be used by professionals who have knowledge of not only teleconnective issues but inherent model biases, also, the more we start slating them, the less data will be made available to the public, now who on here would want a build up to a winter where all you have is the countryfile forecast each week to go on?

 

they don't have to, they are not a forecast. have a read of this- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/user-guide

[Buriedundersnow]

.I believe there was lightning in the SE when they had heavy snow in Nov/Dec 2010?Interesting to see responses on this..!

 

there was thunder and lightning with the snow up here in 2010

[Gaz1985]

Can I ask how reliable do Exeter feel the 32 day ECMWF is? How do they compare it to their own in house outputs in terms of accuracy at such long time scales.

Hopefully you can answer this please?

 

the difference between north and south of the city, or is my geography totally up the spout; also a height difference?

 

Yes they live further south John but strangely they live about 10 metres higher than here, not sure whether a wind direction, topography or proximity to the Pennine shadow was the reason I'm not sure, it was strange though to hear them say a few times "there's no snow here" yet I had a good enough covering to cause slush on the road.

Edited October 17, 2013 by Gaz1985

[feb1991blizzard]

Last Winter was very odd with the snow distribution especially in Greater Manchester, some relatives who live near Stockport had hardly any snow settle, yet here we had a number of measurable events.

 

Technically, we are in Greater Manchester here but it is very tenious, because 3 miles WEST of here there is a sign surrounded by Yorkshire stone saying 'YORKSHIRE'! anyway though, for the purposes of National statistics and local authority's it is in GM, last year we got a fair few little pastings.