Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[feb1991blizzard]

looking at todays 12z outputs from ECM,GFS and UKMO I don't think we can look past 120-144h and say any are wrong or right as the low pressure looking to develop to the southeast still isn't stuck on exactly how it is going to develop and progress as all three models seem to do different things with it

 

ECM

 

ECM1-120.gifECM1-144.gif

 

GFS

 

gfs-0-120.pnggfs-0-144.png

 

UKMO

 

UW120-21.gifUW144-21.gif

 

as we see all three models have this feature doing different things and till we get this worked out over the next few days then all scenarios from all models are still game on at this moment in time

 

To be honest though, as long as the low in the Atlantic digs south (ECM) or disrupts and sends a shortwave south though, we have a chance,  what we really need if we get there ultimately though is any low heights to the south to elongate SW to NE and link with the fridgid air over scandi in order to smash the floodgates open for something better, a long shot but im staying on here now because once this interesting period of model watching is resolved it will almost be time for stratwatch time anyway and then time to get down to some more realistic chances.

[Summer Sun]

Latest CFS has well above normal temps for February

 

 

In general winter isn't too bad once again temperature wise, pretty much average for December, average to above for January and February is above

 

As for rainfall its below average all winter with the exception of February for parts of Scotland

 

Edited October 8, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Don]

Latest CFS has well above normal temps for February

 

 

In general winter isn't too bad once again temperature wise, pretty much average for December, average to above for January and February is above

 

As for rainfall its below average all winter with the exception of February for parts of Scotland

 

 

Best word to describe those charts?  Yuck!!

[Gavin Hannah]

Best word to describe those charts?  Yuck!!

 

 

Best to stick them in the recycle bin...... 

[Buriedundersnow]

looking at todays 12z outputs from ECM,GFS and UKMO I don't think we can look past 120-144h and say any are wrong or right as the low pressure looking to develop to the southeast still isn't stuck on exactly how it is going to develop and progress as all three models seem to do different things with it

 

ECM

 

ECM1-120.gifECM1-144.gif

 

GFS

 

gfs-0-120.pnggfs-0-144.png

 

UKMO

 

UW120-21.gifUW144-21.gif

 

as we see all three models have this feature doing different things and till we get this worked out over the next few days then all scenarios from all models are still game on at this moment in time

 

yes its still autumn but that doesn't mean we cant see wintry weather in the coming weeks and I was pointing out how the models go different ways due to the low to the southeast.

 

as you can see the GFS wants to try take energy from the atlantic low and leaves us with a messy picture to our east

 

 

where as the ECM wants to pull the low to the south east further south without any interaction with the atantic low which allows high pressure ridging to our north which helps push the atlantic low further south

 

 

which as you can see at 240h greatly affects the 850 temps we see here

 

GFS 850's 240h

 

 

ECM 850's 240h

 

it might only still be autumn but cold and even wintry weather isn't out of the question

[feb1991blizzard]

yes its still autumn but that doesn't mean we cant see wintry weather in the coming weeks and I was pointing out how the models go different ways due to the low to the southeast.

 

as you can see the GFS wants to try take energy from the atlantic low and leaves us with a messy picture to our east

 

gfs-0-144.pnggfs-0-168.pnggfs-0-192.pnggfs-0-216.pnggfs-0-240.png

 

where as the ECM wants to pull the low to the south east further south without any interaction with the atantic low which allows high pressure ridging to our north which helps push the atlantic low further south

 

ECM1-144.gifECM1-168.gifECM1-192.gifECM1-216.gifECM1-240.gif

 

which as you can see at 240h greatly affects the 850 temps we see here

 

GFS 850's 240h

 

gfs-1-240.png

 

ECM 850's 240hECM0-240.gif

 

it might only still be autumn but cold and even wintry weather isn't out of the question

 

 

I think if there was a 288 chart that the ECM could deliver some -6c to -8c uppers for somewhere in the UK, as I say, we would just need that low to pivot and bingo.

[Conor Sherwin]

Normally ignore 384 GFS but it does tie in with what the Met are saying, I just hope the PV isn't in full swing by November but still have my fears.

link please 

[feb1991blizzard]

link please 

 

Post 2080 by Gavin shows the chart - 2 pages back.

Edited October 8, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Conor Sherwin]

is there any gain on the isc

is there any gain on the isc

ice lolololololol

[EML Network]

i admire the enthusiasm on this thread for colder weather but calm down everyone. winter is coming, just not next week.

lets get through autumn first, seeing as we're not even half way through it yet!

 

patience grasshopper.....

That's the most sensible post I've read on here all day. 

[ukpaul]

Been lurking until things get going properly for winter but there's a danger that people make the same mistake with CFS as they do with GFS runs; just because it updates frequently it seems to be promoted as being a primary source when it is merely one among many.

[Gaz1985]

December like February according to CFS not looking all that cold for Western Europe, worst of the cold in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. Looking very bitter out East.  Bottesford will be happy with this for a very cold looking Berlin.

 

Edited October 8, 2013 by Gaz1985

[feb1991blizzard]

Come on!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Snow nearer and nearer with every run.

 

 

[Interitus]

That is remarkable. Especially 2009.

 

And yet 2010 has the lowest average AO on record with only one lowest month. What's more remarkable about 2009 is that the year's AO ended up only a little below the average because it also had a couple of third highest +ve months and is the most variable year in the dataset. Then the second most variable year statistically is 2011 so certainly a fairly extreme period for the AO.

[Summer Sun]

Here we go the media have picked up this weeks cool down.............

 

Time to get out your winter coat: Blizzards, sleet and frost forecast for this weekend as Britain set to be colder than St Petersburg

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2449841/UK-weather-Blizzards-frost-weekend-forecast-Britain-set-colder-St-Petersburg.html

[Gavin Hannah]

Here we go the media have picked up this weeks cool down.............

 

Time to get out your winter coat: Blizzards, sleet and frost forecast for this weekend as Britain set to be colder than St Petersburg

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2449841/UK-weather-Blizzards-frost-weekend-forecast-Britain-set-colder-St-Petersburg.html

 

 

Can always rely on the Mail! 

[Jonan92]

 

 

 

Sorry Ireland!

[UV-RAY]

Here we go the media have picked up this weeks cool down.............

 

Time to get out your winter coat: Blizzards, sleet and frost forecast for this weekend as Britain set to be colder than St Petersburg

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2449841/UK-weather-Blizzards-frost-weekend-forecast-Britain-set-colder-St-Petersburg.html

Blizzards eh, I best sharpen my crampons and ice axe then.

[Jimmyh]

 

 

 

Sorry Ireland!

mmmm mmmmm mmmmm stunning charts!!!

that really is the beast from the east

[cheshire snow]

i admire the enthusiasm on this thread for colder weather but calm down everyone. winter is coming, just not next week.

lets get through autumn first, seeing as we're not even half way through it yet!

 

patience grasshopper.....

 

 Will we see Autumn this year though?

 

 Do agree though Winter wont arrive next week,well not in the way of snow,but frost is a strong possibility

Winter,not all about snow although that's what about 90% of people want on here(me included)just not yet though

some nice frosty mornings will do nicely

 

C.S

[Snowstorm1]

For me personally id rather the cold just keeps building gradually instead of making inroads into the UK so quickly... let it hold off to November

[Methuselah]

For me personally id rather the cold just keeps building gradually instead of making inroads into the UK so quickly... let it hold off to November

Agreed. I just can't get the slightest bit excited by the - however remote - possibility of adding some driving sleet to the, what will very likely be, already pretty dire weather?? 

[Snowstorm1]

Agreed. I just can't get the slightest bit excited by the - however remote - possibility of adding some driving sleet to the, what will very likely be, already pretty dire weather?? 

Exactly who wants sleet when we can have snow a few weeks later . Tbh nobody could hope for better looking charts than what were looking at heading towards winter

[smithyweather]

I don't think the cold will come to November tbh. We are having a very slow start