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Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

Cheshire Freeze

By Cheshire Freeze
in Spring Weather Discussion

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-uksnow- Explorer

-uksnow-

Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
Posted

I don't think the cold will come to November tbh. We are having a very slow start

Is this a wind up?!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Is this a wind up?!

Looks like an opinion to me, uk? Depends upon what one means by 'cold'...

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Jimmyh Rising Star

Jimmyh

Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
Posted

I am of the opinion we will have gentle cold shots just to remind us that we are approaching winter. Along with what bftp and a few others are saying is the atlantic suddenly wakes up and biffs us one. Then towards end of November beginning of December we have our first truly big shot of cold. but this will water down but not fully retreat until the first week in Jan when bam here we are full blown snow cover ice days. country grinds to a halt and lasts into the middle of february.....

and then i wake up in a cold sweat lolPosted Image  Posted ImagePosted Image

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Jimmyh Rising Star

Jimmyh

Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
Posted

We are to a slow start. I mean it was 70f here on Sunday.

Yes but the signs are it is turning colder and will get progressively colder

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EML Network Rising Star

EML Network

Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
Posted

It really is too early to be getting excited about Dec | Jan | Feb just yet.

 

Once we get to the end of October and the Strat topic starts to have some life injected in it from Chino Et All, then for me it's when the hunt for snow and cold begins.

 

That's likely to be at the beginning of November.

 

It's evident to my eyes at least that were in the throws of undergoing a change of weather type and I agree that the Atlantic looks like it might awaken with vengance between Mid Month and the end of Oct.

 

Not too sure what November might have in store, which is why I just don't see the point of getting excited about a January chart, on of those posted above showed -12 Uppers all the way down to Benidorm ..there's as much chance of that as there is of me stumbling across a group of fornicating furry's whilst on a walk across the hills, and mistaking one of them for a girzzly bear.

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

I don't think the cold will come to November tbh. We are having a very slow start

The weather know no rules, who's to say it won't be snowing in a couple of weeks time

Look at the summer just gone, here June was cold and cloudy, yet most of July was very warm and sunny. 

Mother nature is a fickle beast and whilst we can't go from heatwave to Ice day in 48 hours like some parts of the world can, it can still throw curveballs at us.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted (edited)

Any chance that somebody saved the northern hemisphere z500 anomaly charts from 12z CFS on the 7th (shown yesterday)?

Have been trying to collect some data on the trends in blocking on the CFS charts since the beginning of the month, but didn't have the time to check yesterday...

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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radiohead Experienced

radiohead

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
Posted

Any chance that somebody saved the northern hemisphere z500 anomaly charts from 12z CFS on the 7th (shown yesterday)?

Have been trying to collect some data on the trends in blocking on the CFS charts since the beginning of the month, but didn't have the time to check yesterday...

 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013100712/cfsnh-3-11-2013.png

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013100712/cfsnh-3-12-2013.png

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013100712/cfsnh-3-1-2014.png

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013100712/cfsnh-3-2-2014.png

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013100712/cfsnh-3-3-2014.png

 

You can find all the CFS archives over the past 12 months here : http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

 

Wonderful, cheers!

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

Exactly who wants sleet when we can have snow a few weeks later . Tbh nobody could hope for better looking charts than what were looking at heading towards winter

I'm not so sure about that.  I have an image of an initial northerly bringing snow showers to eastern areas with central and western areas dry and sunny, and then the subsequent easterly seeing the cold air heavily mixed out from the SE, resulting in overcast and rainy/sleety weather.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Posted Image                                                                 is this cold

Conor, if you managed to track down that chart and manage to post it then you are halfway there to finding the info to answer your own question. As a learning exercise have a go at answering your own question. Do you think it would be cold and if so, why and what do you think the surface conditions would be?

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted (edited)

Not really..

Posted Image

Well it depends on your definition of cold , cold enough for snow ? Yes, in the main , maybe the south east having a sleety mix , but with -4 850's covering the majority of us , or indeed colder the further north/west you go With deep thickness values , then I would say that away from the southeast quarter , most of what falls out of the sky would have a very wintry nature to it.

Coner . . . There's a fantastic learning area on hear . Along with a "will it snow " guide that will help you asses charts and get a better understanding on how it all works , it gets pretty frantic in hear in the winter time as you will find out !

Edited by Severe Siberian icy blast
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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted (edited)

Would be marginal here for snow, but I suspect it would be snow, given any precipitation is heavy enough, but it's nothing too unusual. Does give a mean 2m temperature of -6C in parts though!

Edited by cheese
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bryan629 Aficionado

bryan629

Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
Posted

Conor, if you managed to track down that chart and manage to post it then you are halfway there to finding the info to answer your own question. As a learning exercise have a go at answering your own question. Do you think it would be cold and if so, why and what do you think the surface conditions would be?

 

Posted Image                                                                 is this cold

Hi Conor,

Just to help you along with learning and other new people on this thread.... the picture you posted is for +2280hrs as identified in the bottom left of the image.

on the same page where you got this image you can click on 2m temps, 850hpa temps, and precipitation charts...

 

so for example click on 850hpa ,scroll down the page until you get to +2280hrs and you will see the same chart as the one posted above by Cheese.

 

The image you posted is cold ,and snow will be falling mostly oop north... being marginan further south ,higher ground being more prone to wintriness ppn. with a significant wind chill thrown in.

 

the charts below depict the image 12hrs later +2292 with colder uppers wrapping around the low as it moves in an easterly direction, in other words colder air is digging in behind the frontal ppn and would certainly lead to rain/sleet tuning to snow the further south you go.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image Posted Image Posted Image

 

Hope this helps , remember also that its very tricky to get a forcast right at just 6 days away and the cfs is just for fun Posted Image

post-18134-0-33622600-1381331371_thumb.p

post-18134-0-64702100-1381331414_thumb.p

post-18134-0-02655400-1381331465_thumb.p

post-18134-0-94859000-1381331495_thumb.p

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Undercutting anyone?

 

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

Then a week later -  retrograde block anyone????

 

 

Posted Image

 

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

I don't think the cold will come to November tbh. We are having a very slow start

Really ? Its October the 9th . Maybe you missed some of the last 20 odd years when in some autumns and winters some places hardly recorded a frost.
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cooling climate Aficionado

cooling climate

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

 

BFTV, that shows summer arctic below average for most of the summer?  Never mind right now, but the summer was cold???  Thats what I can see anyway, but thanks for all the other stuff too for the record, helpful to all,  BFTP

Of course what you say is correct this past Arctic summer was much coolerthan previous summers in fact the coolest for a mumber of years. Hence nosurprise to see the rebound in the Arctic refreeze.Looking at the strong rebound there may well have been far more fragmentedice and colder water than what the satellites and data have been telling us.This was the big story in the Arctic this summer but it seems very few havegrasped its significance.
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smithyweather Aficionado

smithyweather

Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
Posted

Really ? Its October the 9th . Maybe you missed some of the last 20 odd years when in some autumns and winters some places hardly recorded a frost.

Well i'm only 17 so i've experienced mostly cool/cold autumns and winters.
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picog Aficionado

picog

Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
Posted

Undercutting anyone?

 

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

Then a week later -  retrograde block anyone????

 

 

Posted Image

mmm yummy!
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picog Aficionado

picog

Posted
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
  • Location: Orleton, 6 miles south of Ludlow
Posted

Well i'm only 17 so i've experienced mostly cool/cold autumns and winters.

if you are 17, then you have mostly experienced mild winters - the colder winters have only come back in the last few years.
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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted

Undercutting anyone?

 

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

 

 

 

Then a week later -  retrograde block anyone????

 

 

Posted Image

So looks like a beast from the east then a Heater from the west.

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smithyweather Aficionado

smithyweather

Posted
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
  • Location: Outside Limavady.
Posted

if you are 17, then you have mostly experienced mild winters - the colder winters have only come back in the last few years.

 

Well tbh I can only remember winters from last 5-10 years because I was too young before 10 to pay attention.

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