South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 06/09/13 ------------>

[Mesoscale]

Well its offical, I had to turn the heating on... it was too cold in my house with only me in it for the past 3 days. Just me, the two dogs and the old cat. .If you don't hear from me again you know I have succumbed to carbon monoxide poisoning haha.My parents are in Beligum at the moment, hopefully they bring back some chocolate, waffles and some of that trappist monk beer!

[Summer of 76]

Well its offical, I had to turn the heating on... it was too cold in my house with only me in it for the past 3 days. Just me, the two dogs and the old cat. .

If you don't hear from me again you know I have succumbed to carbon monoxide poisoning haha.

My parents are in Beligum at the moment, hopefully they bring back some chocolate, waffles and some of that trappist monk beer!

MS, i have turned the brightness down on the screen so the family don't see the words 'heating on', i think it's only fair you pop over to the 'Have you switched the Heating on thread' and break the news

 

14.3c outside at the moment with full cloud cover.

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

 

Grey and dull here this morn. Robin, how do you think tomorrow will pan out? Im meant to be going to Milton Keynes (Gullivers land) tomorrow for my 5 YO Bday. Am i gonna get wet?

 

BBC just said rain will be over this area by 2pm, but GFS says nothing until like 7pm ish. Whadda ya think?

 

Thanks

 

 

It really depends what rides you go on ......

 

 

[Snowangel-MK]

 

 

Oh just a thought, no *all* of CMK is undercover (but agree most of it is, are there many shops left there? not been for a few years now, even if it is just half an hour away).

 

The shopping centre is all undercover apart from the outdoor market and the bit where the cows are...

 

 

 

 

 

..anyway lots of shops but a waste of time really, I walked my legs off and only managed to find one top I liked, did have a rather nice hot choccy and a piece of millionaires shortbread though so not a total disaster 

Edited September 14, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Stuie]

Hi folks, can`t believe we are only a couple of months away from potential snow watch. This year I will be in my new house hopefully, central heating at last. Have a good high view so potential for another time-lapse.

 

Exciting end to year.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

party tonight... LOL

[john pike]

tomorrow

 

a strong west to south west wind (gusts to 50 mph) the very far south east(kent area) may see late pm gusts exceeding this

 

temps around 12-14 degrees but will not feel it

 

rainfall

stays dry to around 2-3pm

 

then

heavy rain for all

 

lasting through to the early hours then clearing

 

 

 

monday

 

still a gusty and fairly cold north west wind

 

temps

 

looks like 9-12 degrees and feeling raw

 

rainfall looks mainly dry

 

except the tod and the very far south coastal regions

 

 

will update the rest later

 

however the ukmo rain chart is especially for captain and boy named sue

 

sorry guys i could not help myself

[NO LONGER POSTING]

"Nice" forecast John...

 

I am 6 posts of 3k :0 

[john pike]

"Nice" forecast John...

 

I am 6 posts of 3k :0 

 

"Nice" forecast John...

 

I am 6 posts of 3k :0 

 

hi mate

thanks

 

you can answer this and make it 5 now

 

weather related  its orrid

[Eskimo]

Getting cold out there, 10.0C.  

[john pike]

humberto

 

by thursday decides to become a hurricane again according to noaa

 

wheres it heading?????????

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143843.shtml?gm_track#contents

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/143843.shtml?5-daynl#contents

 

sea temps

 

 

lets hope it buggers off somewhere else

 

 

[Eskimo]

Looks as though it will definitely get caught up in the Jet Stream. 

7.9C here at 8pm 

[john pike]

Looks as though it will definitely get caught up in the Jet Stream. 

7.9C here at 8pm 

 

hi perfect

 

certainly getting nippy here as well now

 

that humberto track is worth keeping an eye on

 

the sea temps will kill it if it heads towards us but as the sea temps are higher

 

it could still have a kick to it if it heads this way

 

normally they would head north towards iceland

 

one thing the charts cannot do is predict its track

 

so anything after 120 ignore completely for now until it is resolved

[john pike]

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

i like this satellite

[Eskimo]

Now 6.9C, dropping like a stone out there! Won't be surprised if there was a widespread frost. 

[Summer of 76]

Yes down to 8.3c here and feel the next two days are really going to test whether the heating goes on for an hour or two.

[2810lollypop]

Dare i say it ? Ive just put the heating on

[Mesoscale]

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

 

i like this satellite

That satellite trips me out, makes me go all cross eyed to start with! lol

I have the 'posh' whiskey tumblers out tonight maybe thats why!

9.4 Â°C here, I hope to record my first 5 °C tonight way before I was expecting to.

Edited September 14, 2013 by Mesoscale

[john pike]

Dare i say it ? Ive just put the heating on

 

Dare i say it ? Ive just put the heating on

 

i just put another top on

[2810lollypop]

i just put another top on

lol .weve just got back from the harvester in eastbourne .theve got their christmas decorations up ! Im just off to get out my gloves & scarf  & ugg boots & im staying in !

[Bluebreezer54]

lol .weve just got back from the harvester in eastbourne .theve got their christmas decorations up !

Really ??  That is just plain crass, I would avoid the the place like the plague.

[john pike]

wednesday

 

still a breezy north west flow

 

at present that shows dry

 

still looks chilly 10-12 degrees

 

fog could be an issue am early and as night falls

 

cold night with single digit temps

 

thursday

 

winds still gusty but now a westerly

 

temps a tad warmer around 14 degrees

 

expect showers around in the afternoon

 

ukmo at 144

 

a weak west to south west flow

 

possibly hitting 16 degrees

 

precip hard to call on here

 

the high pressure will struggle to hold off the atlantic in this set up

however expect model changes to occur even at relatively short notice

[Captain Shortwave]

With all the talk of unsettled weather, something has stuck me looking at the charts.

Apart from the rain tomorrow afternoon/evening, no rain is predicted to fall here during most if not all of next week.

Also hope for next weekend, GFS has been very bullish about this and frankly it seems the most stable model and appears to be modelling Humberto with pretty good consistency

 

 

Unsure of the predicted temperatures at the moment, think mid twenties would be possible by Sunday if something close to this verified.

Other models not as good but do suggest drier and warmer conditions next weekend, just not as great as the GFS output.

[john pike]

hi captain

 

would not look past 120 at present

 

control run from gfs

 

looks fine

 

however

 

 

shows heavy rain

 

models aint got a clue at present

 

also at 66

 

 

shows this

 

does not tally with the fax chart but does with ecm

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2&carte=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php

 

gfs short ensembles all over the shop very early

 

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

wind

 

rain

 

it does look like resonable agreement temp wise to the 21st on here then totally different

 

rain tomorrow night-monday

 

then wednesday

 

then mainly dry for now

 

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

 

ecm rainfall up to thursday does show some rain around

 

just a point about high pressure now

 

as we go through the month high pressure unless having very high uppers will

 

make the evenings very cold and although the days will be pleasant temps will struggle to hit 20 at best

 

 

anyway captain you may be right but at present i am unsure  and will wait until tuesday

 

before looking at next weekend

[Captain Shortwave]

Very true, just a gut instinct that the GFS is pretty close to the right answer. Over the past couple of days it's clear the models have underplayed the effect of this ex tropical storm. It's a hunch and might be wrong, but it's resulting pattern is one which at least gives me some hope for an improvement on the dire end to this weekend and the week ahead.

Anyway should probably sleep now 

Edited September 14, 2013 by Captain shortwave