South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 06/09/13 ------------>

[Jason T]

And...... Boom boom. That was bad . (Actually, that was meant to be a joke, wasn't it?) the snails are having a field day in my garden, apart from one little fella I accidentally trod on a minute ago, whilst doing my dustbin duties

 

 

Blimey wait till you tread on a slug bare footed. OMG Its like cold jelly between your toes,and then try and get up stairs to the shower without treading on the carpet. Now that is a mission.

[snow raven]

at least its Friday, no work tomorrow .

Amen to that!Crap outside tonight, am pleased I don't have to go out in it!

[Crepuscular Ray]

Blimey wait till you tread on a slug bare footed. OMG Its like cold jelly between your toes,and then try and get up stairs to the shower without treading on the carpet. Now that is a mission.

Can we change the subject, please, before I on the keyboard!!!

[Methuselah]

Amen to that!

Crap outside tonight, am pleased I don't have to go out in it!

Don't tread in it?

[80sWeather]

Don't panic.....plenty of 'interesting' weather to look forward to ........

 

An interesting article from Paul Hudson (BBC) explaining the impact that the current (weak) solar cycle could be having on our weather.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Rare-solar-cycle-has-cold-implications-for-UK-climate

 

......or you could just go with what's been written in the papers..... .....

 

 

1240289_10201762255276881_1119315038_n.jpg

 

 

...it might be boring weather right now but it's Friday, nearly 5 O'clock and I'm out of here to enjoy an evening of warm food  and cuddles 

Exciting stuff the solar cycle theory, been reading about this since 2007.

Unusual for the BBC, not a single mention of global warming.

[john pike]

hi all

 

fax update time

 

tonight heavy rain

 

tomorrow

 

a mainly northerly flow

 

rain around and some heavy to around 2pm

 

then clearing from the west but areas to the far east of the region may stay wet all day

 

temps

around 15 degrees

 

saturday night looks dry but chilly

 

sunday

 

a strong westerly wind

 

temps around 16 degrees

 

rainfall

 

dry to around 2ish then heavy rain after

 

sunday night

 

heavy rain and gusty north west wind

 

the rain should ease around 4-5am then watch the temps drop pretty quick

 

 

monday

 

still a gusty north west wind

 

showers and rattling through quite quick (thundery possible) in the morning

 

pm looks likely to be dry

 

temps

 

i would not rule out a single digit temperature locally

 

however temps around 12 degrees should be the norm

 

will update the rest later

[HammerJack]

Amen to that!Crap outside tonight, am pleased I don't have to go out in it!

Unfortunatley I do though. 😞 I'm doing the knowledge of London, and will be driving round the city on my motorbike getting soaked. All in a good cause though 😊

[HammerJack]

Blimey wait till you tread on a slug bare footed. OMG Its like cold jelly between your toes,and then try and get up stairs to the shower without treading on the carpet. Now that is a mission.

i really love wildlife, but slugs I but salt on and flies I swat, for obvious reasons. That must of been awful treading on one of those bare foot. That actually makes my skin crawl... Good job though, getting up stair without putting your foot down. Bet the Mrs was happy 😀

[lottiekent]

Unfortunatley I do though. I'm doing the knowledge of London, and will be driving round the city on my motorbike getting soaked. All in a good cause though

What do you do LeighD? It's finally coming down heavy here.

[Eskimo]

Recorded about 20mm so far. 

[Crepuscular Ray]

What do you do LeighD?It's finally coming down heavy here.

My guess is he's learning to be a black cab driver.

 

It's still peeing down here.

[HammerJack]

What do you do LeighD? It's finally coming down heavy here.

I'm an accountant by trade. But training to be a London Black Taxi driver... I've had enough of all the office work. I want to be able to pick my own hours to work. Which will be around my family. Very heavy rain here now. I can hear it battering against the windows 😊

[john pike]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

 

GABRIELLE NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...REMNANTS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO ATLANTIC CANADA...

 

HUMBERTO WEAKENING QUICKLY...

 

[HammerJack]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

GABRIELLE NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...REMNANTS BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO ATLANTIC CANADA...Hey JP. Don't worry about that... Post your winter forecast. I'm staying up late tonight, so I can read it.... Hurry up 😉

[Captain Shortwave]

I can only laugh on the model thread, all these autumn and winter lovers coming out of their burrows and immediately falling victim to what we have suffered throughout the whole summer. Oh the ECM is showing this, it must be the correct way, then the ECM flips the next run 

Edited September 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[john pike]

tuesday

 

at present the low that was showing hitting us last night has been dropped

 

however still looks like some heavy rain for us

 

a west to north west flow and gradually easing

 

temps around 13-14 degrees

 

wednesday

 

a noticeable west to north west flow

 

dry am but some blustery showers en-route pm

 

temps around 13-15 degrees

 

ukmo @144

 

a weaker north west flow

 

also a shade warmer around 15-16 degrees

 

dry???

[Captain Shortwave]

BTW look forward to your winter forecast John, unless it's fifty shades of Bartletts 

[john pike]

i do this just for fun and as with all long range forecasts they cannot be guaranteed

i do work these out using various sources

 

i include enso which is expected to be neutral to slightly negative (same as last year)

 

solar output which has drastically dropped and way below expected

 

volcano eruptions which are running a lot higher than average (has been for 3 years now)

 

sea temps which are higher than normal now which will help convection from the east

 

 

 

 

i expect early oct to get cooler  then 2nd or 3rd week to see some wintry stuff more wintry than heavy precipitation

october cet average to a shade below

 

nov cold and v cold fireworks night snow risk end of nov

push from atlantic mid month but repelled quickly from the east

november cet around average maybe a shade over

 

dec  still struggling as atlantic still likely to break through early but xmas could be white

possible atlantic driven and wet and windy from start to end of 2nd week

cet i reckon likely to be above average

 

january  expect cold and frosty but mainly high pressure based

mainly dry but some very low night temperatures

cet below average

 

february again similar to january with high pressure in control

there should be a higher risk of precipitation due to poss undercuts

some very low nightime temps

cet below average

 

 

march v cold with v heavy snow think similar to last year but higher precipitation

cet below average

 

 i also expect april to be a surprise month with plenty of snow early with v cold temperatures

warming up slowly from mid month

cet very below warming up slowly from mid month

 

starting to get warmer by may hopefully

 

overall it could repeat last year but i can see some frustration if january is correct

 

would make up for it in march though

 

the one thing that buggers up forecasts is the solar output

at present it looks to be dead but due to predictions being pretty poor on that side

if it goes active it could totally change this (jet stream change)

 

i will amend this through the winter should the solar bit change

 

hope you enjoyed reading this

[HammerJack]

i do this just for fun and as with all long range forecasts they cannot be guaranteed

i do work these out using various sources

i include enso which is expected to be neutral to slightly negative (same as last year)

solar output which has drastically dropped and way below expected

volcano eruptions which are running a lot higher than average (has been for 3 years now)

sea temps which are higher than normal now which will help convection from the east

i expect early oct to get cooler then 2nd or 3rd week to see some wintry stuff more wintry than heavy precipitation

october cet average to a shade below

nov cold and v cold fireworks night snow risk end of nov

push from atlantic mid month but repelled quickly from the east

november cet around average maybe a shade over

dec still struggling as atlantic still likely to break through early but xmas could be white

possible atlantic driven and wet and windy from start to end of 2nd week

cet i reckon likely to be above average

january expect cold and frosty but mainly high pressure based

mainly dry but some very low night temperatures

cet below average

february again similar to january with high pressure in control

there should be a higher risk of precipitation due to poss undercuts

some very low nightime temps

cet below average

march v cold with v heavy snow think similar to last year but higher precipitation

cet below average

i also expect april to be a surprise month with plenty of snow early with v cold temperatures

warming up slowly from mid month

cet very below warming up slowly from mid month

starting to get warmer by may hopefully

overall it could repeat last year but i can see some frustration if january is correct

would make up for it in march though

the one thing that buggers up forecasts is the solar output

at present it looks to be dead but due to predictions being pretty poor on that side

if it goes active it could totally change this (jet stream change)

i will amend this through the winter should the solar bit change

hope you enjoyed reading this

Thanks JP. 👠Yes great reading. 😊

[john pike]

thanks leigh

[Captain Shortwave]

nice, I've taken a slight stab at things.

October - drier and warmer than average, perhaps the leading steps to a blocked Arctic, probably winds from a southerly quadrant hence the prediction overall.

November - a lot of models back this month to be cold, also potentially average to above average precipitation. Perhaps the wildcard month. Maybe some significant snowfall.

December - possibly the hardest to predict temperature wise. So I'm gunning high pressure over us, temperatures will vary widely, western areas might see above average temperatures, but eastern areas may be cold and foggy for  good part of the month.

January/February - The Steve Murr factor suggest colder than average months, but snow factor, not sure to be honest. 

[john pike]

nice, I've taken a slight stab at things.

October - drier and warmer than average, perhaps the leading steps to a blocked Arctic, probably winds from a southerly quadrant hence the prediction overall.

November - a lot of models back this month to be cold, also potentially average to above average precipitation. Perhaps the wildcard month. Maybe some significant snowfall.

December - possibly the hardest to predict temperature wise. So I'm gunning high pressure over us, temperatures will vary widely, western areas might see above average temperatures, but eastern areas may be cold and foggy for  good part of the month.

January/February - The Steve Murr factor suggest colder than average months, but snow factor, not sure to be honest. 

 

nice, I've taken a slight stab at things.

October - drier and warmer than average, perhaps the leading steps to a blocked Arctic, probably winds from a southerly quadrant hence the prediction overall.

November - a lot of models back this month to be cold, also potentially average to above average precipitation. Perhaps the wildcard month. Maybe some significant snowfall.

December - possibly the hardest to predict temperature wise. So I'm gunning high pressure over us, temperatures will vary widely, western areas might see above average temperatures, but eastern areas may be cold and foggy for  good part of the month.

January/February - The Steve Murr factor suggest colder than average months, but snow factor, not sure to be honest. 

 

hi captain

 

good one

 

i think everyone should have a stab at it

 

then if we save them until may we can compare notes

 

then the closest can buy a round at the next net weather meet

[HammerJack]

thanks leigh

Atlast, I can go to bed know.... 😄 Goodnight JP and everyone else. And thanks for the forecast. 👠Edited September 13, 2013 by LeighD

[john pike]

goodnight leigh

[Bluebreezer54]

I can only laugh on the model thread, all these autumn and winter lovers coming out of their burrows and immediately falling victim to what we have suffered throughout the whole summer. Oh the ECM is showing this, it must be the correct way, then the ECM flips the next run 

I don't even bother going into the model thread anymore, and haven't done for many months. It's worse than a primary school playground. JP's post in this regional topic are always worth reading and I really appreciate the work he puts into it. Beyond that if I want sensible and reasoned analysis and discussion of the models I now go to another website. which shall remain nameless.

 

It's still absolutely tonking it down here and has been for several hours now, the next few days could well see some heavy rainfall accumulations. Have a good weekend all, whatever the weather.