South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 17/09/13 ------------>

[stainesbloke]

Lovely sunny day here with a brisk E breeze and current temp of 19C.

[Summer of 76]

Well a lovely day here although there is a brisk wind from the east, suppose this is the son of the beast from the east just trying us ready for his father in the winter.

[john pike]

hi all

 

a bit dull and breezy but at least the showers have steered clear today

[Captain Shortwave]

Partly cloudy skies here today, some low cloud coming in off the north sea, only patchy and well broken so plenty of sunny spells. In fact it's becoming clearer again now as the sun makes it's descent. Windy though so feeling rather fresh.

[Jan_Bromley]

Hello all,

 

Grey and dreary but dry. Sun hasn't appeared at all again today

[john pike]

worth a watch

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/143422.shtml?gm_track#contents

 

 

we all know how these things confuse the models

[Captain Shortwave]

worth a watch

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/143422.shtml?gm_track#contents

 

 

we all know how these things confuse the models

Yeah noticed that on the last couple of GFS outputs, all of a sudden the Azores high is becoming more willing to build towards the UK next weekend with the last couple of operationals building heights much closer to the UK in high resolution.

[abruzzi spur]

Everyone round to AS's house for a fab sounding meal this evening, we all really appreciate it, 6ish OK? When we rehomed a little french bulldog knowing nothing about the breed, we had to learn that they can only do short walks which may suit suburban lifestyles, but I do wish we could take him out for lengthy adventures in the way you describe. Have a lovely day.

Thanks ReefLeft home about 11 am, walked a total of 11.5 miles, gained and lost a lot of height tramping around the North Downs, got the little local train back from Dorking. A fantastic outing - my youngest, who's 10, most enjoyed the time when a horse chestnut tree started raining perfect conkers as the wind blew, luckily we managed to avoid getting hit. He brought 11 home, so the number 11 featured a lot on the walk, though I did only have 1 (not 11) bacon roll at the top of Box Hill (which was a bit too busy for my liking). We at one point walked through Denbies wine estate on the permissive paths and it felt like rural France, chalk landscape and vines stretching in all directions. We had sunshine for quite a lot of the walk as well, which we weren't really expecting, it was a beautiful early Autumn day in the end, though the cloud filled in from about 4pm.Must do this more often. Dog is crashed out. Son isn't. I'm aching a bit, from 5 squash games in 7 days and today's walk, but feel I have earned a beer tonight!AS Edited September 29, 2013 by abruzzi spur

[Jax]

Well that was a grand afternoon out for a walk and sat out in my parents garden soaking up the sun (with a beer)

 

shame it draws to a close a lovely weekend really.

[john pike]

tomorrow

 

a breezy south-south easterly flow

 

temps around

16-18 degrees

 

sunny intervals looks more likely but a chance the west of london may pick up the odd shower during the day

 

 

tuesday

 

still a breezy south east flow

 

temps

 

look like around 16 south of london

 

around 13-14 north of the region

 

looks dry but the odd shower on the south coast

 

expect cloudcover an issue here especially tod area

 

 

wednesday

 

a strong south to south easterly

 

looks dry am

 

then

heavy rain moving in effecting most areas around 2 onwards

 

tod area possibly staying dry most of the day

 

temps

 

around 16 degrees by tagged by the wind

 

will feel chilly when the rain arrives

 

 

more later

 

john

[classylady]

Hello fellow friends!  I have really enjoyed myself today along with the weather. This morning, (after a little lay in), I tided up the garden. Emptying pots, cleaning the patio, putting umbrellas and such like away and sorting the greenhouse out.  For some reason I found this quite rewarding!!  After lunch it was for a walk in the woods to "gather" some blackberries with the family....and I have now just eaten a lovely roast followed by (need I say) some blackberry and apple crumble with "blobby"  cream.........yumm!!  

[john pike]

fi in gfs

 

 

that would blow the cobwebs away

 

it would also change our pattern as that would be bye bye azores high for a while at least

 

all fi at present so may be all tosh

 

it was something interesting to post at least though

[Captain Shortwave]

Have to admit the GFS op is very unlikely to occur. A lot of evidence showing conditions for the next few weeks continuing in a similar vein to what we are currently experiencing.

Day 10 from the other 2 models which go that far

 

 

GFS ens backing a similar pattern to the ECM/GEM

 

CFS forecast for October

If the flow remains roughly from the south it should give some decent warm sunny spells. Lets avoid the moist, grey and drizzly south westerly.

Edit - Hypocrite award goes to me, the now CFS chart was not the one I originally posted because I forgot to save 

Edited September 29, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[john pike]

hi mate

 

maybe right maybe wrong

 

cfs in my opinion changes more than i change my socks

 

the other charts you posted although warmish  ecm wet gem cloudy

 

 

 these will start getting cold with night frosts in october should high pressure stick around

 

i still call an atlantic blast mid october as the jet drops further south

 

anyway who knows its all guess work at that time

 

be nice for something different to happen

 

all very boring at present

[john pike]

Hurricane Season 2013: Year Without a Major Hurricane?

The other seasons since 1960 with no major hurricanes were 1986, 1972 and 1968.

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-season-2013-major-hurricanes-20130926

 

 

now who remembers january 1987

 

 

too early to call re hurricanes but you never know

[Biggin]

Hurricane Season 2013: Year Without a Major Hurricane?

The other seasons since 1960 with no major hurricanes were 1986, 1972 and 1968.

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-season-2013-major-hurricanes-20130926

 

 

now who remembers january 1987

 

 

too early to call re hurricanes but you never know

 

[Tom Montalbano]

Hello all,

 

Grey and dreary but dry. Sun hasn't appeared at all again today

 

Hello Jan,

 

Really nice to have contact with another T.S.S.S member, thought it had been disbanded. 

 

KCZ.

Edited September 29, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[Jan_Bromley]

Hi john,

 

January '87 was epic! I was living almost in the Countryside at the time. 5 foot of snow. Night time temps going down to below minus 20. Electric and phone cut off for 3 days. When the roads were cleared, there were 10ft drifts at the sides of the road. Like driving through a tunnel made of snow.

 

My daughter was only 7 weeks old and I needed the doctor. It took him 4 hours to walk to my house bless him. Amazing

Hello Jan,

 

Really nice to have contact with another T.S.S.S member, though it had been disbanded. 

 

KCZ.

 

 

Hi KCZ,

 

Well if it's been disbanded then I'm the only one left. Unique, that's me

[john pike]

hi jan

 

was living in addington at the time

 

got literally snowed in for over a week

 

we can dream cant we   (why have i started using santa smileys?)

[Tom Montalbano]

Hurricane Season 2013: Year Without a Major Hurricane?

The other seasons since 1960 with no major hurricanes were 1986, 1972 and 1968.

 

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/hurricane-season-2013-major-hurricanes-20130926

 

 

now who remembers january 1987

 

 

too early to call re hurricanes but you never know

 

 

Brings back great memories John. Below one of the synoptic charts of a lifetime, for our area. Was my wallpaper for many years.

 

[Jan_Bromley]

hi jan

 

was living in addington at the time

 

got literally snowed in for over a week

 

we can dream cant we   (why have i started using santa smileys?)

 

 

Not you too! Flippin supermarkets and shops are bombarding us with Christmas already.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

hi mate

 

maybe right maybe wrong

 

cfs in my opinion changes more than i change my socks

 

the other charts you posted although warmish  ecm wet gem cloudy

 

 

 these will start getting cold with night frosts in october should high pressure stick around

 

i still call an atlantic blast mid october as the jet drops further south

 

anyway who knows its all guess work at that time

 

be nice for something different to happen

 

all very boring at present

True about the CFS, I am trying to use it to guide where we might head, it's not doing to bad. NAO and MJO signals suggesting a continuation of Scandi blocking well into October which looks pretty feasible. I don't think coldies should be too concerned as blocks to the North east can quickly go from warm to frigid in just a few days. I will be looking beyond mid month for any signs of the high becoming cut off and possibly retrogression signals if the jet wants to go underneath. I think November is potentially looking good in my opinion and so far things seem to be going to plan.

My forecast (guess) was for a warmer and drier October followed by a cold and possibly wintry November. Looks pretty good to me

Case of "patience grasshopper" perhaps 

Edited September 29, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mark Neal.]

Ill love to experience a winter like that Mr Pike sadly quite a few years before my time still!

[john pike]

Not you too! Flippin supermarkets and shops are bombarding us with Christmas already.

 

 

Not you too! Flippin supermarkets and shops are bombarding us with Christmas already.

 

 

True about the CFS, I am trying to use it to guide where we might head, it's not doing to bad. NAO and MJO signals suggesting a continuation of Scandi blocking well into October which looks pretty feasible. I don't think coldies should be too concerned as blocks to the North east can quickly go from warm to frigid in just a few days. I will be looking beyond mid month for any signs of the high becoming cut off and possibly retrogression signals if the jet wants to go underneath. I think November is potentially looking good in my opinion and so far things seem to be going to plan.

My forecast (guess) was for a warmer and drier October followed by a cold and possibly wintry November. Looks pretty good to me

 

hi mate

 

you maybe right

 

just being cautious as the atlantic could wake up anytime soon

 

think october will start warm day but get chilly at night

 

its the second part i am not sure of

 

as we know time will tell

is it me or do we keep keep getting double when replying

 

i got 2 replys in one there

reply to jan

 

[Jan_Bromley]

Ha ha John,

 

So good you sent it twice