South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 11/10/13 ------------>

[VillagePlank]

A chance of convective thunderstorms tomorrow morning for the SE. Here's the skew-t for Heathrow,

 

 

Somewhat this instability is related to atmospheric moisture profiles rather than surface heating (etc). Here's the RH charts,

 

 

You can see that around 700hPa there is some less humid air. Essentially, air cools quicker when it is dry than if it is wet which increases the lapse rate which in turn adds to convective instability.

 

2m temps seem (unusually) high for October, and dew points are sufficient (> 10^oC)

 

 

Capeshear - something that combines convective potential with 6km shear - looks good for the SE,

 

 

Also prior to 9z on Sunday, low level shear looks sufficient to warrant an eyebrow or two raised for the possibility of tornado development, with 6km shear providing for instability with quite a bit at the 1km level, which is the level of most interest for tornado development.

 

 

Given the dry(er) air aloft one also must raise the prospect of larger hail, perhaps up to 2cm in size focused on a line SE from Southend to the Isle of Wight.

 

At this stage, I'm not really going for damaging convective gusts ... yet.

Edited October 19, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Jax]

Morning all

 

Tis a big change for me this morning, been used to it being sunny and warm, OK it is not cold but where is the sun?

 

Oh and it is raining too.  At least I do not have to work

Some mornings it's just not worth chewing through the leather straps....

Some hobbies are best left off the forum

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Lol looks a bit wet in Kent later today!

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/archive-for-europe.html

 

 

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all

 

Tis a big change for me this morning, been used to it being sunny and warm, OK it is not cold but where is the sun?

 

 

 

Well it's not here....and neither was the penumbral lunar eclipse last night thanks to the pesky clouds 

 

It's getting brighter here now and I've only got a couple more hours to work before I have a nice girlie afternoon out with mini me 

 

Hope your all having a super Saturday 

[Jax]

Well it's not here....and neither was the penumbral lunar eclipse last night thanks to the pesky clouds 

 

It's getting brighter here now and I've only got a couple more hours to work before I have a nice girlie afternoon out with mini me 

 

Hope your all having a super Saturday 

Missing that sun, I had 4 days of this during the week...

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19075-2013-10-17-171727small/

[Jax]

Well have added a few pics for you so you all can remember what blue skies looks like

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19078-2013-10-16-131259small/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19077-2013-10-16-125449small/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/19076-2013-10-17-173901small/

 

last one may not be so blue but still it is a lot better than here today

[Mark Neal.]

Sun poking through now and we are at a very mild 16.7c

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Heavy shower here about an hour ago, felt worse than the weather station recorded, all I know is I got soaked :-(

Sun poking through now and we are at a very mild 16.7c

Send it this way please

[Wivenswold]

The band of rain forecast earlier to clip Kent is much further west. It's currently intensifying over Essex. Chucking it down here in North Essex.

[Ruthie]

Raining here in west London.so mild have had to open back door to let air in!

[Kent Snow]

A wet but mild afternoon in Canterbury. 16C.

[Steve C]

My mates are currently in Brentford, before the football game. I can see there's a particularly heavy blob showing on the radar in the vicinity...

 

Here's hoping!

 

Raining quite heavily here too, as Wivenswold has said.

[Methuselah]

Persistent rain seems to have set in...Lovely!

[Team Jo]

Hair ruiningly rainy here....

[Methuselah]

I put some growmore on the lawn, this morning...talk about luck!

 

Unlike yours, TJ, my hair has long passed its ruin-by date. 

[RUSH]

afternoon all

 

well its an odd day out there to day wet,mild,cool,damp all at the same time

[tinybill]

afternoon all

  just  back  from  work its  wet  and  horrible  time  to hit  out  some  zzzzzzzzzzz  for  a  couple  of  hours!!

[Summer of 76]

Afternoon, the rain has missed us although still cloudy and notice a line of showers coming in from the west will they stay intact only time will tell.

[snow raven]

Afternoon all,

 

After a wet and dull start to the day, the rain has cleared and we have some sun .  Surprisingly mild too.

Edited October 19, 2013 by snow raven

[Heisenberg]

hi all, how is tomorrow looking for southend area? GFS says a little rain but not much and the Meto is saying lots of rain...who to believe....

[Jax]

hi all, how is tomorrow looking for southend area? GFS says a little rain but not much and the Meto is saying lots of rain...who to believe....

take it at its least likeable and anything better is good

 

stopped raining here, still cloudy though.

[Mark Neal.]

Some great cloudscapes this evening. With plenty of anvil tops and cumulonimbus clouds.

[VillagePlank]

hi all, how is tomorrow looking for southend area? GFS says a little rain but not much and the Meto is saying lots of rain...who to believe....

 

I would say unlikely to see rain before 3am, now: but as we head through the day, the chance for some pretty hefty (and thundery) showers increases until about 15z where the showers look likely to be limited to the far East Coast with the southern edge of the area around Southend, actually.

 

Edited October 19, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Mark Neal.]

A brighter afternoon here, followed by some heavy downpours on/off from 4-5pm, boy did it rain, we had 4.5mm in an hour. Temperatures of 18.5c now down to 12.1c under clear starry skies. That moon is rather huge ! 

[Jax]

some rain here, but it remains mild for the time of year.