South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 11/10/13 ------------>

[Guest bjaykent]

Tornado anyone! I guess it is that kind of day where anything is possible?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24601190 

Edited October 20, 2013 by bjaykent

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Will that lot to the SW stay on course ?

Looks a bit lively

[Jax]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/Will that lot to the SW stay on course ?Looks a bit lively

Looks like it will pass south of here, looks interesting though all the same.

[VillagePlank]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/Will that lot to the SW stay on course ?Looks a bit lively

 

Unfortunately, latest GFS shows the atmosphere stabilising in the far SE corner (SE London, Kent, some E Sussex) so might well only be showers by the time it gets here. Maybe back on again approximately 21z, but that, I think will be too late.

 

 

Lifted Index charts nicely show the hole in the instability; it doesn't recover today and the area moves away into the North Sea.

 

 

12z Herstmonceaux ascent looks crucial in determining the accuracy of the forecast given the widespread nature of the area, and the very small (in comparison) area of the hole.

Edited October 20, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Tamara]

If that GFS prediction proves to be the case *if it does* then that will be most welcomed by a minority of us. (Alas) I wouldn't be surprised though to see a final rash of potentially thundery showers in the early evening time before sustained stabilisation occurs ahead of the frontal system that will be bringing dynamic rainfall to the region by early tomorrow morning

[VillagePlank]

If that GFS prediction proves to be the case *if it does* then that will be most welcomed by a minority of us. (Alas) I wouldn't be surprised though to see a final rash of potentially thundery showers in the early evening time before sustained stabilisation occurs ahead of the frontal system that will be bringing dynamic rainfall to the region by early tomorrow morning

 

For me it'd be a welcome delight. However, I think it'll be all over for chances of thunderstorms by 15z for the far SE; too many parameters fall away too sharply from about then, There is a tongue of dry air very high up that might provide a welcome boost (associated with the front) but it'll be dark by then (21z)

 

Our best chances for this event were always falling inside the red line,

 

 

Fuel for storms is on the decrease, the favoured area of instability never really gets to region - maybe North Kent after dark, but then the amount of water vapour available starts tailing away. All in all too many things need to come together, and just like snow, for any given location in the UK, if it ain't just right, it ain't going to happen - unless one is lucky.

Edited October 20, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Tamara]

For me it'd be a welcome delight. However, I think it'll be all over for chances of thunderstorms by 15z for the far SE; too many parameters fall away too sharply from about then, There is a tongue of dry air very high up that might provide a welcome boost (associated with the front) but it'll be dark by then (21z)

 

Our best chances for this event were always falling inside the red line,

 

9_mixr.png12_mixr.png15_mixr.png

 

Fuel for storms is on the decrease, the favoured area of instability never really gets to region - maybe North Kent after dark, but then the amount of water vapour available starts tailing away.

The NAE gives an insight to this as the upper cold pool has already begun lifting out from southern counties  by midnight

 

Edited October 20, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Crepuscular Ray]

Did anyone in East Sussex notice what looked like several distress flares not long after 10 this morning, somewhere north of the Hailsham area?

[Tamara]

I'm wondering actually if the 15z mini stabilisation is associated with the post-vorticity conditions behind the next squall line of thundery showers currently arcing from the western channel and approaching the south coast to the west of the Isle of Wight and then down towards Cherbourg. It is the southern extent of this feature that could bring further storms to this region in the next couple of hours before a quieter second half to the afternoon

Edited October 20, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[john pike]

Hi tam

When I looked last night on ukmo charts it looked to me the more unstable air was between 12 to 5pm

On phone so cannot check

This would be the trough incoming that was on the fax chart

Should find out what its going to do soon enough though.

[Neilsouth]

wow that rain was INTENSE earlier today, very large downpour almost like that stormy night not long ago

 

Shame it had no thunder

[VillagePlank]

Hi tamWhen I looked last night on ukmo charts it looked to me the more unstable air was between 12 to 5pmOn phone so cannot checkThis would be the trough incoming that was on the fax chartShould find out what its going to do soon enough though.

 

The most unstable I can find during that time frame is the SE Kent coast,

 

[Tamara]

Hi tam

When I looked last night on ukmo charts it looked to me the more unstable air was between 12 to 5pm

On phone so cannot check

This would be the trough incoming that was on the fax chart

Should find out what its going to do soon enough though.

Yes john, I would agree with that . To me it seems logical that behind some of these disturbances the atmosphere tends to balance itself out somewhat in equilibrium, at least for a time.  However, because of the lateness of the season and with surface heating cut short then re-destabilisation becomes much harder late in the day - and as the upper cold pool lifts out during the evening then SST driven convection is also inhibited along the coast.

 

So it is conceivable that the incoming 'mini trough' represents the last rash of showers in this convective spell. However midweek soon brings another.

 

The squall line looks quite strong on the radar with a fair amount of embedded lightning. Some lively weather could be on its way in an hour or so...

 

http://meteox.com/images.aspx?jaar=-3&voor=&soort=loop-bliksem&c=&n=&tijdid=20131020140

Edited October 20, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Snowangel-MK]

Afternoon all,

Damp squib here this morning but managed a walk anyway just to justify a roast lamb dinner later :-)

Heard a rumble of thunder a few minutes ago so fingers crossed for a bit more later if not I will have to console myself with plum crumble and custard !

[Jason T]

Afternoon all, Blimey lively early this morning, Thunder and lightning quite good to, Caused a 5 min power cut. Later today looks interesting, Quite wet i would say.

[Jax]

nothing of interest here, only rumbles have been my stomach or next door drilling holes in the wall...

 

 

...oh well, might pop out soon to the shop and get some supplies in.

 

In other news have started another art project that I hope will bring the flavour of the sea home (time will tell)

[Methuselah]

Dry ans sunny, 17.8C...I've got daffodils coming up! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

More thunder and lightning with very heavy rain what a day!!

[Ruthie]

No thunder at all here, just heavy rain. Flight path seems to have just changed, we had planes going over most of morning, now they aren't.

[Bluebreezer54]

A rapidly evolving situation is developing here and I think the instability is far from over yet. I'm picking up plenty of sferics on my trusty old medium wave radio, and now hearing thunder rumbling in the distance. Dark enough that I have to put the lights on to see my keyboard, the radar looks a bit lively as well.

[Ruthie]

I can near distant rumblings am sure of it!! Darned washing machine, wish I hadn't put it on. Lost sky signal briefly.

[Jason T]

Yep just started to rain heavy and thunder again.

[Tom Jarvis]

Will we get anything in East Sussex or is there going to nothing at all

[Neilsouth]

Will we get anything in East Sussex or is there going to nothing at all

 

East Sussex has the  highest instability in the south east

[Tamara]

A rapidly evolving situation is developing here and I think the instability is far from over yet. I'm picking up plenty of sferics on my trusty old medium wave radio, and now hearing thunder rumbling in the distance. Dark enough that I have to put the lights on to see my keyboard, the radar looks a bit lively as well.

The suggestion has been that behind this trough there may be some (temporary?) stabilisation south of the river

 

I've got the hoover ready to drown out any problems the weather my bring Housework can be such a convenience sometimes

Edited October 20, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר