Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[butler_son]

Both warnings are also still up on the Met Office Site? If within 12 minutes the warning has been downgraded to a yellow alert for our region, why is the amber still on there...is this a mix up or a case of the MET waiting and seeing as it evolves (which would make sense given the fact we are still a way away from the event)?

 

Look at what's written and the matrix for both warnings. The amber warning has slightly lower wind gusts in the warning and is an amber warning because the likelihood is higher. The yellow warning is at the bottom of the matrix for likelihood because the wind speeds are higher. It's still a possibility so worth them putting the warning out.

[Me & angel fiance]

It's showing what time the warning was issued, not from when it's valid. It's valid from 12:05 until 21:00

both the yellow and the amber are valid from 12.05 until 21.00. Sounds to me like they are hedging their bets and covering all angles. I am still hoping we are more in the yellow not the amber. Love extreme weather but also remember the chaos after the '87 storm. I know they are not saying its going to be that bad but then again who knows. 

[Iceni]

Both warnings are also still up on the Met Office Site? If within 12 minutes the warning has been downgraded to a yellow alert for our region, why is the amber still on there...is this a mix up or a case of the MET waiting and seeing as it evolves (which would make sense given the fact we are still a way away from the event)?

 

Yeah it's really confusing.

[Me & angel fiance]

Look at what's written and the matrix for both warnings. The amber warning has slightly lower wind gusts in the warning and is an amber warning because the likelihood is higher. The yellow warning is at the bottom of the matrix for likelihood because the wind speeds are higher. It's still a possibility so worth them putting the warning out.

ah very good point. Well spotted there. So all makes sense now thank you 

[Snowman.]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=ee&fcTime=1382918400

 

if I am reading this right we were under amber warning at 11.53 with very high likelihood, but then at 12.05 we are under a yellow warning and the likelihood dropped right down. It's for the same areas and time span.. confused now but hoping the yellow one is right not the amber

Apologies if this has already been posted about 

Its how they issue them there is a Yellow and Amber warning effecting East of England with the South under Amber the North under Yellow, if the current Output doesn't change we will see a red issued within 24 hours.

[Gael_Force]

That is a nasty squeeze on the isobars from the 00Z HIRLAM - the 06Z is a bit deeper apparently, not seen positioning though.

 

[Just Before Dawn]

Why don't you go and put on a dress

 

Really?  That's the best you can do?

 

And they say wit is dead.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Just Before Dawn

[scotteboi]

Cheers all, that does make sense   I must admit I am torn at the moment, the grown up in me is worried about posiible damage to my house and sheds, possible power outages (which hopefully dont happen)....but the kid in me would love to see a really good storm with sustained high winds and strong gusts!!

[Storme]

Cheers all, that does make sense   I must admit I am torn at the moment, the grown up in me is worried about posiible damage to my house and sheds, possible power outages (which hopefully dont happen)....but the kid in me would love to see a really good storm with sustained high winds and strong gusts!!

 

Yeah, I hate to admit it, but same here.

[hernebaylooby]

Cheers all, that does make sense   I must admit I am torn at the moment, the grown up in me is worried about posiible damage to my house and sheds, possible power outages (which hopefully dont happen)....but the kid in me would love to see a really good storm with sustained high winds and strong gusts!!

 

I think that's how most of us are feeling

[ChezWeather]

Not holding my hopes up for any amazing wind gusts here... seems like im right in the path of the low :/ 

[fluid dynamic]

I think I may follow some of the advice on here and just go and put on a dress 

[PurpleButterfly]

Cheers all, that does make sense   I must admit I am torn at the moment, the grown up in me is worried about posiible damage to my house and sheds, possible power outages (which hopefully dont happen)....but the kid in me would love to see a really good storm with sustained high winds and strong gusts!!

 

I would have to agree 100% with you on this! I've been out in my garden today securing the fence as its looking scared!! Put my rabbits hutch in the shed but if it gets bad i'll bring bunny indoors.

I have young children, my daughter is scared bless her but my son has a passion for the weather like his mummy! Just need to get new batteries for the torch and we are all ready! And if its not as bad as expected then at least we no that we can prepare for the worst situations in the future. 

[Bobby]

Some big seas during the storm across the South Monday morning from the HIRLAM , 8-9m, 30 feet or so wave heights. Wouldn't like to be on a ferry in that.

 

Edited October 26, 2013 by Bobby

[LadyEv06]

Not holding my hopes up for any amazing wind gusts here... seems like im right in the path of the low :/

I think locally we're in the eye of the storm, though we may have 40mph gusts, nothing too nasty.

[scotteboi]

I would have to agree 100% with you on this! I've been out in my garden today securing the fence as its looking scared!! Put my rabbits hutch in the shed but if it gets bad i'll bring bunny indoors.

I have young children, my daughter is scared bless her but my son has a passion for the weather like his mummy! Just need to get new batteries for the torch and we are all ready! And if its not as bad as expected then at least we no that we can prepare for the worst situations in the future. 

 

Good idea that....hopefully you will get the best of both worlds, some nice gusts, some heavy rain but no structual or flooding to go with it....maybe that would help your daugher get the weather 'bug' that you/your son and 99.9% of us on here have!!

[Jan]

My friends have farms in Shrewsbury they are struggling to get the new roof completed on the cow shed before tomorrow, they look borderline on the warnings ie red or amber, just hope the wind isn't that bad or the poor cows will be blown away

[Tamara]

Some big seas during the storm across the South Monday morning from the HIRLAM , 8-9m, 30 feet or so wave heights. Wouldn't like to be on a ferry in that.

 

fjfdjd.png

 

 

Sea front will be closed - it always is in these situations (rather obviously) I went on a safe part of the seafront in Hastings that was open during a big gale in January last year and I had to hang onto the car to prevent being blown off my feet. Suffice to say I didn't try going on foor anywhere. My German friend wanted pics of the big waves, as living where she does in Europe, she never sees storms in the winter by the coast

Edited October 26, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[SteveCoops]

I think I may follow some of the advice on here and just go and put on a dress 

 

At least the wind will let you do a Marilyn Monroe moment 

 

Just put what garden furniture away I can ready for tomorrow, just hope my neighbours have done the same.

 

I see Greater Anglia trains are offering people travel tomorrow if they have tickets for Monday. I don't think I'll go to work a day early though!

[stewfox]

You have to remember most people will be going about their normal business today. Tomorrow they will be looking at forecasts re track of storm (which will be far more accurate then todays)  and probably look out of the window on Monday morning re is it safe to travel to work.

 

I saw no 'panic buying today'

[radiohead]

That is a nasty squeeze on the isobars from the 00Z HIRLAM - the 06Z is a bit deeper apparently, not seen positioning though.

 

 

Found it.

 

Winds look very strong as it approaches the southwest. Force 12 at sea, 11 along coasts.

 

http://www.weeronline.nl/vakman-index/130/0

[fluid dynamic]

At least the wind will let you do a Marilyn Monroe moment 

 

Just put what garden furniture away I can ready for tomorrow, just hope my neighbours have done the same.

 

I see Greater Anglia trains are offering people travel tomorrow if they have tickets for Monday. I don't think I'll go to work a day early though!

Better remember some decent nickers as well then 

[ZONE 51]

You have to remember most people will be going about their normal business today. Tomorrow they will be looking at forecasts re track of storm (which will be far more accurate then todays)  and probably look out of the window on Monday morning re is it safe to travel to work.

 

I saw no 'panic buying today'

It happens when heavy distrupive snow heads in! bread and milk cleared...

[jamesbhx]

I've just come out of a teleconference with various airports, air traffic control and the Met Office regarding the situation Sunday night in to Monday morning. The current industry specific breif is as follows:

 

The low should be in or around the Bristol channel (Southwest Approaches) by 2100 Sunday moving NE. At 0600 Monday its expected to be Cardigan Bay with a central pressure of 966mb still moving NE. It should clear the Lincolnshire coast by 1200. Anywhere inland south of a line drawn Plymouth to Norwich should see winds of 35-40KT (40-50mph) with occasional gusts up to 60KT (70mph). Exposed hills and coastal locations along the south coast could see a mean wind of 50-60KT with gusts in the 70-80KT region between the hours of 0400-1000. There is also an "outside chance" of somewhere seeing in excess of 80KTS (92mph) for a short while, most likely somewhere along the Dorset coast across to Kent.Any storm surge/swell along the south coast should be around 6ft above the mean. We are in the neap tide range, so tides are not as high.The estimate is that this low should be around 20mb less and on average around 20-30KTS less severe than the 1987 storm.Information above is accurate as of 1430 this afternoon.

Edited October 26, 2013 by jamesbhx

[scotteboi]

Better remember some decent nickers as well then 

 

oohhh matron!