Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[Dibdabbers]

The infamous low has a name now. Say hello to Christian. http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/Analyse_20131026.gif

The infamous low has a name now. Say hello to Christian. http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/Analyse_20131026.gif

Huh my ex husbands name...always did create misery wherever he went

[Summer Sun]

'Hurricane': UK Will Take Full Force Of Storm

 

Weatherman Michael Fish, who famously failed to predict the severity of the Great Storm of 1987, says 'batten down the hatches' A storm which could reach hurricane strengths of 80mph or more will definitely hit Britain on Monday, weather experts have warned. There were hopes the huge storm brewing over the Atlantic Ocean would miss the UK, and sweep instead through the English Channel. But meteorologists are now certain it will strike the south west of England and could leave a trail of destruction as it gusts north-east across the country, causing structural damage, and bringing down trees and power lines. Roads may also be hit by flash flooding, bringing rush hour traffic on Monday morning to a halt, and homes could be flooded.

 

Severe weather alerts are in place for England and Wales, with an amber warning, meaning "be prepared", for the southern half of England and Wales. There is a lesser yellow warning, meaning "be aware", for the rest of Wales and England up to the border with Scotland. Sky News weather presenter Jo Wheeler said: "The storm is coming through at the worst possible time; from around midnight to midday on Monday - which takes in the rush hour when people are trying to get to work.

 

http://news.sky.com/story/1160047/hurricane-uk-will-take-full-force-of-storm

Edited October 26, 2013 by Summer Sun

[radiohead]

0Z ECM has a wide area of 63+ knot gusts.

 

[Jo Farrow]

 

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo8137m

Mentioned (with a graphic) last night, but still believe there is a risk of a 'sting jet' from this. Midlands/E Eng at risk..

 

Blimey that would be quite a thing, putting an area on such a specific rare development, when the whole outer setup is still in such flux.

It is interesting to read about, especially in relation to 1987 storm.  http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78270-sunday-monday-storm-latest-from-the-netweather-team/

[Snowman.]

Thank god i live up in yorkshire look like we will miss it stay safe guys down south

Don't hold your breath, this one has your name on it.

 

[Lee Jones]

Seen this scenario many times before. It will head south, probably northern France and the channel getting the worse. You only need be concerned if you live on the South coast as you may get of it....but living on a coast you'd expect it to be windy.

 

The Met Office are slowly morphing their warnings any further north to that of rain (1-2 inches nothing special) so they don't look too silly after telling everyone in the midlands and the home counties to "be prepared" .  

[Zenarcher]

Very rough sea conditions over the next few days,

 

46ft swell to our far West this afternoon it's very rare to see that,

 

 

Sunday morning around the West coast of Ireland up to 40ft,

 

 

For Monday morning 30 to 32ft to the South West of England and 20 to 25ft in the English Channel,

 

[Carl]

Yes, there is a risk of high winds as the low clears off into the North Sea, puling NW gales along your coast

 

I'm starting to get somewhat irritated by the lack of comment on this from professional forecasters. Why aren't the Met Office stating this explicitly in their warnings?!

[Snowman.]

Seen this scenario many times before. It will head south, probably northern France and the channel getting the worse. You only need be concerned if you live on the South coast as you may get of it....but living on a coast you'd expect it to be windy.

 

The Met Office are slowly morphing their warnings any further north to that of rain (1-2 inches nothing special) so they don't look too silly after telling everyone in the midlands and the home counties to "be prepared" .  

The Fact that its still being modelled to hit us we have to to be concerned, just because other storms predicted failed to materialise doesn't mean anything about the current one as no two pieces of weather are the same. 

[terrier]

If im reading it right anyone south of sheffield wont have anything to worry about regarding these winds.

[bluearmy]

Seen this scenario many times before. It will head south, probably northern France and the channel getting the worse. You only need be concerned if you live on the South coast as you may get of it....but living on a coast you'd expect it to be windy.

 

The Met Office are slowly morphing their warnings any further north to that of rain (1-2 inches nothing special) so they don't look too silly after telling everyone in the midlands and the home counties to "be prepared" .  

 

and if your reputation depended on it, you'd be just as confident would you lee ?  the thing hasn't even developed - how do you know what its going to do ?

 

re the sting jet jo - i assume matt is looking at the current forecast track. (though i cannot know that cos he blocked me on twitter!?). if that changes and the system deepens as forecast, then any sting jet will change locale in relation to the actual track.

[Carl]

The potential storm area hasn't even developed yet?

 

What I mean is - it is highly likely the track of the storm will be within a confined area and it is right and proper that those areas have warnings out. The storm doesn't lose its potency because its no longer affecting the built up areas of the south east - it will impact on coastal areas on the east of the country. The warnings are very generic in this regard.

 

It seems as per that the south is in for a battering and nothing will happen elsewhere.

 

Always the same.

[Darren Bown]

This storm has barely started deepening, so itll be critical over the next 24-36 hours as to how it develops and moves as to how the Metoffice respond. They can only go off what calculations are saying, as visually, there is hardly a storm yet.

[Liam J]

6z NAE has the most severe winds held into the Channel, you certainly wouldn't want to be out in any sea vessels come Monday morning! Wouldn't be surprised to see areas away from the South Coast/headlands escaping the worse of what this low has to offer. Still a very windy day indeed. 

 

 

 

 

[pip22]

Check this out now: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_windstorms

 

They put Windstorm Christian on now on the wikipedia.

[doctormog]

Seen this scenario many times before. It will head south, probably northern France and the channel getting the worse. You only need be concerned if you live on the South coast as you may get of it....but living on a coast you'd expect it to be windy. The Met Office are slowly morphing their warnings any further north to that of rain (1-2 inches nothing special) so they don't look too silly after telling everyone in the midlands and the home counties to "be prepared" .

Out of curiosity have you looked at the comments discussing the Met Office's view on the evolution of this system? Have you looked at the warnings, the current imagery and the model output? Or is it an "I know better situation". There is little consensus or evidence to support your prediction at the moment, would you care to provide some rather than making a statement dismissive if those who ARE actually in the know?

[Mark Neal.]

The 3 Models reasonably close in agreement currently of the track of low, surely won't be a huge amount of change before it now occurs.

 

Edited October 26, 2013 by Mark N

[scotteboi]

Seen this scenario many times before. It will head south, probably northern France and the channel getting the worse. You only need be concerned if you live on the South coast as you may get of it....but living on a coast you'd expect it to be windy.

 

The Met Office are slowly morphing their warnings any further north to that of rain (1-2 inches nothing special) so they don't look too silly after telling everyone in the midlands and the home counties to "be prepared" .  

 

I have the feeling you may be right about this (no charts etc to back this up whatsoever, just a gut feeling)...lets hope so eh? I could do with keeping my shed roof where it is!

[Carl]

A fine balance has to be struck though? No good dishing out warnings like smarties, likewise if confidence is relatively high, they're put into place..

Never an easy job for forecasters et al - pleasing everyone all of the time is nigh on impossible it seems

Keeping an open mind, regular checks of forecasts and taking some news headlines with a pinch of salt can help at times. Although this event may indeed bode true, for some..

 

All fair comment but if its going to pass over the UK its going to hit us coming in, whilst its here and departing. The first two parts are clearly being given a lot of attention, no point telling us whats going to happen on the way out after the fact!

 

All three stages should be given sufficient comment. I feel that the latter isn't at present. Clearly, the detail will emerge with more confidence in due course but as someone who has been keeping a close eye on this the last 24 hours, I feel this is a glaring omission from the discussion.

[Jo Farrow]

I'm starting to get somewhat irritated by the lack of comment on this from professional forecasters. Why aren't the Met Office stating this explicitly in their warnings?!

Tweet them

[Rammie]

If im reading it right anyone south of sheffield wont have anything to worry about regarding these winds.

How did you reach that conclusion?!?

[terrier]

How did you reach that conclusion?!?

Because it looks to me like the south is in the firing line with us northerners escaping the worse cant really see us getting anything out of the ordinary up here

[Iceni]

As an older person and '87 storm veteran, my advice is to get everything you need electricity for done today and tomorrow... you may not have any next week or even the week after that if you live in a rural location - we didn't have any for 6 weeks after 16/10/87 - there were just so many lines and substations hit by trees etc.

 

If you live on a hill, fill up your bath and as many large containers as poss, with clean water for drinking (clean out one of your wheelie bins with bleach and fill that - takes at least 50 gallons) as the pump which pumps it up to you might be out of action. No electricity is bearable, but no water is horrendous.

 

Keep your freezer shut so the food stays frozen as long as poss. Buy tins and things you can cook in a saucepan or frying pan.

 

And stay inside. If there are trees near the bedroom where you sleep, move into another room for Sunday or sleep downstairs. Don't move until the wind's gone completely and even then be careful. Make friends with someone who has a petrol chainsaw, get together with your neighbours and make plans for the clear up, the authorities might not be able to help.

[karyo]

Because it looks to me like the south is in the firing line with us northerners escaping the worse cant really see us getting anything out of the ordinary up here

 

Check your original post! You should have said north of Sheffield not south!

 

Karyo

[Wet'n'Dry]

Because it looks to me like the south is in the firing line with us northerners escaping the worse cant really see us getting anything out of the ordinary up here

 

Did you mean to say North in your original question?