Possible severe storm Monday 28th October 2013 Part 2

[Raidan]

I think its fair to say that different people will look at this storm in different ways,people with access to charts and are weather knowledgable will be able to advise others on the possibilities and how to prepare where as people who only have access to tv forecasts and papers may get scared especially the older generation,I think stocking up on supplies weather there needed or not come the storm is a good idea as we don't really know how bad its going to be,either way its better to safe and prepared than sorry,I myself will keeping a eye on my elderly neighbour who lives on her own,anyhow I hope everyone stayys safe and take care.

[Sainsbo]

I see the probablility factor has moved up, one step away from red, the next few model runs will have people on the edge of their seats I bet!

[Summer Sun]

What about North East?

 

Other than some heavy rain early Monday it will be a quiet day up here max wind gusts low 30's mph

[Tom Montalbano]

If this Fax chart for 12z Monday is still the Metos thinking, some of the strongest gusts, from this storm, could well be experienced down the Central East coast, say Yorks, Lincs, Norfolk areas, as the low exits the UK and storm force winds sideswipe these counties.

 

 

Tom.

[Storm Track]

The current Level 2 warning is for powerful and destructive winds on Monday across the South, including Wales, London, Devon, Cornwall then up to Norfolk, East Anglia and on the Midlands according to the Met Office.

We have all the ingredients coming together at once to trigger a very serious storm said Mr Williams.

Trees are likely to be uprooted, buildings could suffer structural damage and power failures are likely.

The Met Office's chief forecaster, Steve Willington, said: This is a developing situation and we'd advise people to stay up to date with our forecasts and warnings.

Mr Williams said: This storm is proceeding as we feared with the UK expected to take the full impact.

[suffolkboy_]

Hi all - warnings updated on met office website, i notice the matrix has crept further towards the red.....

 

Good spot. I was thinking the warning had remained largely unchanged.

[Nick123]

Other than some heavy rain early Monday it will be a quiet day up here max wind gusts low 30's mph

But the MO has a yellow warning for wind... I heard that the wind would be strong as the low exits the North Sea...

[Polar Bear]

I think its fair to say that different people will look at this storm in different ways,people with access to charts and are weather knowledgable will be able to advise others on the possibilities and how to prepare where as people who only have access to tv forecasts and papers may get scared especially the older generation,I think stocking up on supplies weather there needed or not come the storm is a good idea as we don't really know how bad its going to be,either way its better to safe and prepared than sorry,I myself will keeping a eye on my elderly neighbour who lives on her own,anyhow I hope everyone stayys safe and take care.

Thanks Raiden.. Good idea. Although the older generation I have found don't seem to be scared! It is the younger.. All the elder generation are know say ah it will be a breeze.. Font forget they have lived through far worse weather and a world war so you can kinda get their chilled approach!

[Summer Sun]

But the MO has a yellow warning for wind... I heard that the wind would be strong as the low exits the North Sea...

 

Warning yes but max wind gusts for Darlington are 35mph, Newcastle 36mph, York 36mph, Durham 32mph

 

Compared to the south we get off lightly

Edited October 26, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Jo Farrow]

But the MO has a yellow warning for wind... I heard that the wind would be strong as the low exits the North Sea...

Yes, there is a risk of high winds as the low clears off into the North Sea, puling NW gales along your coast

[poseidon]

 

 

Issued at 6am this morning.

 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif

Is this a more northern track? [Haven't been keeping up with latest]

Edited October 26, 2013 by poseidon

[Nick123]

Warning yes but max wind gusts for Darlington are 35mph, Newcastle 36mph, York 36mph, Durham 32mph

 

Compared to the south we get off lightly

I sort of think those gusts are a bit underestimated. I have a feeling for a short time at least we will get some strong winds as the low moves away. Just sayin', I'm no expert.

Yes, there is a risk of high winds as the low clears off into the North Sea, puling NW gales along your coast

Thanks Jo!

[Summer Sun]

Latest yellow warning for wind

 

Issued at: 1205 on Sat 26 Oct 2013

 

Valid from: 0005 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

 

Valid to: 2100 on Mon 28 Oct 2013

 

A very intense low pressure system is forecast to run northeastwards across the country early on Monday, bringing the potential for a very windy spell of weather. At the same time, persistent, heavy rain could cause some surface water flooding. There is still some uncertainty in the timing, intensity and track of the low. However, the public should be aware of the risk of damage to trees and structures, as well as the possibility of disruption to transport and power supplies.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A developing storm is expected to reach the UK later on Sunday. This is expected to run northeastwards, probably across England and Wales, with very strong winds on its southern and western flanks. There is the potential for gusts of over 70 mph in the Yellow area (and over 80 mph in the accompanying Amber area), especially on exposed coasts, both in southwesterly winds ahead of the low and west to northwesterly winds behind it. 20 to 40 mm of rain may fall quite widely within 6 to 9 hours, leading to localised flooding, especially where drainage is impeded by wind-blown debris. This warning will be updated during Sunday morning.

[Jo Farrow]

I sort of think those gusts are a bit underestimated. I have a feeling for a short time at least we will get some strong winds as the low moves away. Just sayin', I'm no expert.

Thanks Jo!

At this stage, whilst there is still uncertainty in track particularly, you couldn't be comfortable with specific numbers for gusts. The model will produce something, but at this stage, looking at the overall picture is better. Changes in each model run, and subsequent runs can give a better theme.

[radiohead]

The infamous low has a name now. Say hello to Christian.

 

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/Analyse_20131026.gif

[legritter]

Certainly a very interesting few days coming up ,with in my opinion looking at all the evidence from charts data etc .but realy by this time tomorrow it will be much clearer as to the track of this low ,its intensity and life span ,and many meteorological bits of Data which are missing at this point in time [late saturday morning ]i think the met office are doing a very professional job ,but as always is the case many news outlets and papers etc are being very un professional ,as for candles matches torches i have plenty up my shed iv collected over the years but so far never used in an emergency .already our local supermarket ran out of bread this morning and milk nearly going the same way .but the upbeat is as i stood waiting for my wife in the village today many people were talking about the possible storm and there was a buz in the air ,which cant be a bad thing .If the worst possible situation developes in your area and this is forecast later tomorrow it is very helpfull if you have the timeto check on neighbours and a very big tip is to look around and make sure that anything that is liable to be lifted by the wind is put away or tied down ,iv had first hand experience of some one being hit by garden firniture back in the Burnsday storm ,in hospital for 3 days .SO any TROLLS ABOUT rather than causing bad feeling on our Forums get out there and do your Duty ,and a big thank you for all regular posters for good technical info ,cheers 

[Jo Farrow]

Is this a more northern track? [Haven't been keeping up with latest]

Yes, the old one was posted yesterday, in PArt 1 of this thread, and it was more mid Wales/Humber

[Summer Sun]

Looks like red warnings will be issued but not till tomorrow 12z and 00z outputs will be key over the next 24hrs

 

Upgrade to red likely for some areas in this upcoming event but not until 00z output has been assessed versus actual imagery. Plus varied discussion with a number of key agencies.

Edited October 26, 2013 by Summer Sun

[AWD]

I bet come Tuesday, if all verifies as forecast, the Daily Express and co will be gloating big time about this.

Sadly, many members of the public will be taken in by the paper too!

[Summer Sun]

Met office picking up on the potential for more gales next weekend

 

UK Outlook for Thursday 31 Oct 2013 to Saturday 9 Nov 2013:

 

The end of the week looks unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, and generally windy. There is a threat of gales inland for some, and potentially a very wet and windy spell during the weekend. Into next week, it is likely to remain unsettled and often windy, with the risk of gales in the north and west. Also some heavy rain likely at times and a risk of showers over the northern mountains turning wintry. Day time temperatures look set to remain around or just above average for the time of year throughout this whole period, however this will be tempered by the wind and unsettled feel to the weather. Remaining largely mild by night with a lower incidence of frost than usual for the time of year.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Tamara]

If this Fax chart for 12z Monday is still the Metos thinking, some of the strongest gusts, from this storm, could well be experienced down the Central East coast, say Yorks, Lincs, Norfolk areas, as the low exits the UK and storm force winds sideswipe these counties.

 

 

Tom.

Yes it is insightful to see the ECM backed in terms of reflecting the development of the storm system best of all.  I think that the model has consistently suggested this type of evolution since yesterday morning and the other models appear to be catching up with it.  There is a hook type element of the shape to the low with very tight isobars coiled on the south western perimeter of the system. The NAE has a similar signature, but as said already, it is believed (at least at present) that the track is too far SE.

 

Clearly it is the exact track of the low which determines which areas might get affected by this immediate wake of the low and where pressure jumps the most rapidly and where the air accelerates fastest eastwards or north eastwards behind the low.  It could well be that some sort of squall feature delineates this and a fair drop in termperature behind it occurs as the low traverses north eastwards. Assuming the ECM type track this could track from (maybe, say) around Dorset northward eastwards across the Midlands and then exit the east coast during the afternoon. Maybe it is this that the METO refer to in terms of where the squeeze of westerly winds rush in most acutely and perhaps where the most severe weather may occur?

 

Just a simple lay interpretation of course

Edited October 26, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Biggin]

Matthew Hugo â€@MattHugo8137m

Mentioned (with a graphic) last night, but still believe there is a risk of a 'sting jet' from this. Midlands/E Eng at risk..

[Jo Farrow]

I bet come Tuesday, if all verifies as forecast, the Daily Express and co will be gloating big time about this.Sadly, many members of the public will be taken in by the paper too!

And if the worst is over North Sea/Denmark then they will go back to worst Winter in 5 centuries/Lady Di works in a chip shop/All forecasters are rubbish

[Lauren]

The infamous low has a name now. Say hello to Christian.

 

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/Analyse_20131026.gif

 

The infamous low has a name now. Say hello to Christian.

 

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/de/wetter/maps/Analyse_20131026.gif

 

Will he be giving us a good spanking?

[terrier]

Thank god i live up in yorkshire look like we will miss it stay safe guys down south