Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[swfc]

Which frame are you looking at ? T 144 looks to go under?

it moves north east at 168 hrs

Edited November 16, 2013 by swfc

[snowmadchrisuk]

Interesting on the Wednesday feature there is Cold air in front of it and Cold air behind it , So for some in the North i'm thinking it could be a Snow/rain/Snow event. 

[bluearmy]

The ECM 12z I am not happy with again tonight ( 2 days on the trott) I am discarding it- no much energy moving INTO the block / over it- Stick with the UKMO which is smooth & Seemless.- S

It seems to get stuck between the various routes - the op has been unconvincing for a while

[SMU]

UKMO t+144 looks good synoptically, though I remain to be convinced that the NE flow would be cold enough for anything wintry away from high ground - maybe more raw, grey and drizzly.From my perspective, the cold arctic air doesn't look to make huge inroads south to our NE, partly because the low sat over central Europe is preventing the deep cold getting very far south to our east, rather it pumps mild air north.This is apparent from 12z GFS anyway.So it appears that there is a small window for wintry showers late Monday - late Tuesday across northern and western areas and perhaps down the east coast too. Then Wednesday milder air with cloud and rain moes down from the northwest, perhaps preceded by some snow over high ground in the north. Then it appears a raw NE or E flow seems increasingly likely to develop later next week, though the flow looks to become pretty dry.

 

Nick based on the UKMO as you comment on-I would say that forecast couldn't be further away if you tried.

 

Becoming drier?

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UW144-21.GIF?16-18

 

I think you need to rethink that forecast fella ( based on the UKMO only) - unless you are basing it on a UKMO GFS blend which may then be less cold & drier from the East- but UKMO & GFS are miles apart.S

Edited November 16, 2013 by Steve Murr

[radiohead]

ECM at 168 showing better potential than the GFS at the same time.

[Tim Bland]

The ECM 12z I am not happy with again tonight ( 2 days on the trott)I am discarding it- no much energy moving INTO the block / over it-Stick with the UKMO which is smooth & Seemless.-S

Do we just disregard anything that doesn't show what we want? Can you explain why you think it's is wrong and the UKMO is right ?

[bluearmy]

it moves north east at 168 hrs

Tbh, it doesn't go over or under. Odd, which is probably why Steve doesn't like it.

[Met4Cast]

Do we just disregard anything that doesn't show what we want? Can you explain why you think it's is wrong and the UKMO is right ?

 

The ECM is trying to send the low pressure at 96/120 INTO the blocking area of high pressure despite being negatively tilted. Realistically we'd see the low pressure slide underneath the block rather than through it. 

[MR EXTREMES]

tim bland to much energy to the north.

[Tamara]

The story is the same one as last night really - fine tuning adjustments to the degree of amplification of the atlantic High. Overall, the pendulum has swung slightly back to better amplification from last night. Split flow scenarios like this can take some time to resolve! I think as long as one doesn't expect deep cold from this, at least to start with, then expectations are grounded. However synoptically it makes a very interesting start to the season

[cooling climate]

lol I did say that the three models would have a different solution to the energy

and phasing in the north Atlantic and sure enough from t144 onwards its a case

of ip dip to see which model is right.

Personally I think the UKMO model will be nearer the money but that is just my

opinion.

[Wilxy]

Nothing it certain yet, but it looks like the cold will never be to far away at best with chances of tapping into colder air as we get further into winter.

[MR EXTREMES]

at 192 on the ecm there loads of very cold air into scandi and eroupe so now we need the easterly.

[beng]

Nick based on the UKMO as you comment on-I would say that forecast couldn't be further away if you tried.Becoming drier?http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UW144-21.GIF?16-18I think you need to rethink that forecast fella ( based on the UKMO only) - unless you are basing it on a UKMO GFS blend which may then be less cold & drier from the East- but UKMO & GFS are miles apart.S

To add, Based off the ukmo at least, thicknesses down here look pretty good at t120. Edited November 16, 2013 by beng

[Summer Sun]

ECM following its ensemble from this morning by building high pressure over the UK, so becoming drier with temps recovering but likely to stay below the seasonal average

 

[swfc]

Tbh, it doesn't go over or under. Odd, which is probably why Steve doesn't like it.I

I just stated it woudnt go under at 144 hrs and at 168 it moved north east.Id agree looking at this mornings run and this evenings then it does look odd

[swfc]

I just stated it woudnt go under at 144 hrs and at 168 it moved north east.Id agree looking at this mornings run and this evenings then it does look oddAlso which isnt ringing true is the massive swing on the nh charts and the pv distribution imo

Edited November 16, 2013 by swfc

[Mucka]

Hard to believe any of the models have got the scent given the inconsistency from run to run and the differences between models out to day 5. 

I would like to believe MetO is on the right track but what evidence is there of that?

 

I will be glued to the GFS 18z even though I know I will be  none the wiser once it is out.

Nice ride eh?

Weeee!

[Summer Sun]

t216 see's the high staying put

 

 

remaining chilly, though eastern Europe is becoming a lot colder

 

Edited November 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[stewfox]

Far too many one liners without rationale support. Can someone supply a model summary up to T144, then the hundred people currently just reading this thread can have a better clue where we are tonight ?

[Tim Bland]

I wouldn't ever disregard the ECM when it has the backing of its ensembles. It may look a bit odd - the way it handles the block, it's not impossible though and could well be correct.

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z I am not happy with again tonight ( 2 days on the trott)

 

I am discarding it- no much energy moving INTO the block / over it-

 

Stick with the UKMO which is smooth & Seemless.-

 

S

Agreed, craig didn't like it either.................seriously though, we are on the cusp of the first arctic outbreak of the season so let's not worry and be happy....we should just bask in the glory of the ukmo 12z until the 18z fun run later, and the ecm 12z ens mean will probably put the op run in perspective.

[Panayiotis]

Hard to believe any of the models have got the scent given the inconsistency from run to run and the differences between models out to day 5. 

I would like to believe MetO is on the right track but what evidence is there of that?

 

I will be glued to the GFS 18z even though I know I will be  none the wiser once it is out.

Nice ride eh?

Weeee!

Given that they dont know what to do with that shortwave around 72hrs you'd expect them to be slightly different!

t216 see's the high staying put

 

 

remaining chilly

 

*cold for Central/Eastern Europe!! A proper Scandi would be nice at the end of this run.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Panayiotis

[radiohead]

The ECM 12z I am not happy with again tonight ( 2 days on the trott)

 

I am discarding it- no much energy moving INTO the block / over it-

 

Stick with the UKMO which is smooth & Seemless.-

 

S

 

Steve, I have often found the UKMO 144 to look quite "smooth" regardless of the output. I'm not sure why that is since it's 25 km resolution model but it "looks" lower res compared to the GFS even though thats 28 km.

[Snowman.]

Nothing is going under when it should be going under..

 

FI 96-120 really can't handle what to do with the low off the eastern seaboard feeding into the Atlantic from then on its struggles to move and just spins around not sure if to go under, over, through?

 

The only thing I can say for beyond next week its going to feel raw and cold almost, feeling like a March cyclonic spell, frosts where its clear at night, during the day cloudy in the east seems like it.

 

 

 

Circular high that thing ain't going nowhere.