Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[phil nw.]

Please keep on topic peeps-that means discuss what the models are currently showing.

 

A dozen-yes a dozen- recent posts more suited to the moan/ramp/hopes model thread have been moved-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

 

Please help yourselves and the team by keeping this thread informative and confine general chat to the other thread.

 

Thanks all.

[Joe Levy]

I don't understand the negativity about the ECM op. I mean on the surface of things we don't end up that cold from it. But  with lower heights further south and a very large cold pool in Eastern Europe, that would set us up very nicely for the chance of some much colder weather later on! The charts don't give us a perfect result (if they did I would be worried...) but they set us up with loads and loads of potential! I mean if that cold pool were to be advected westwards, which is perfectly plausible, then this forum would erupt with excitement (and understandably some dread from some people). For me, this part of the season of model watching is more about looking for potential than instant results.

[Vorticity0123]

Currently, the undercutting of the low in Greenland is being discussed. The fate of the blockade over the Atlantic south of Iceland appears to be determined by the low. However, it seems to me like the the key feature lies much further south, in the tropical Atlantic. A non-tropical low pressure is currently developing to the east of the Lesser Antilles (which might become subtropical storm Melissa in the future). The forecast track shows the system recurving toward the central Atlantic (between Nova Scotia and Spain).

 

 

In this GFS chart (T+66h), the system can be seen nearing in the extreme southeast corner of the map.

 

At T+114h, the system is being absorbed by another low pressure area.

 

Thereafter, at T150 (in FI), the coupled system can be seen moving toward Greenland.

 

It must be emphasized that this is just a model run, so the outcome of the system could easily be much different than shown here.

 

 

As tropical cyclones (or their remnants) usually complicate forecasts in the mid latitudes, models often have a hard time resolving such situations. It will be interesting to see how the models handle the remnants of the tropical cyclone in the future. Very interesting to watch.

 

Sources:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

 

EDIT: What I would like to point out is that the energy associated with the tropical system is likely to interfere with the development of this low. Though I don't know what the outcome will be, it shows nicely how closely the tropics and the mid-latitudes can be related to each other.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Vorticity0123

[AWD]

NAEFS looking very Scandi-high-esq this evening;

Longer range NAEFS outlook suggests heights continuing NE from Scandi-Russia and lowering heights to our NW;

Edited November 16, 2013 by AWD

[Man With Beard]

NAEFS looking very Scandi-high-esq this evening;image.jpg

Hope I'm not sounding like a scratched record but, if anyone has been following only the ensemble means and anomaly charts these past few days, they'd wonder what the upgrade/downgrade comments are all about. The chart above is typical of them. In fact they've been so consistent it's almost boring! Just cold, cold and more cold.

[swfc]

Hope I'm not sounding like a scratched record but, if anyone has been following only the ensemble means and anomaly charts these past few days, they'd wonder what the upgrade/downgrade comments are all about. The chart above is typical of them. In fact they've been so consistent it's almost boring! Just cold, cold and more cold.

Wheres the link for that chart,thanks

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe is very short at present - 72 hrs tops. The models are showing a developing trough feature to our NW on Tuesday - its exact track and depth remains unknown and these factors will mean the difference between whether somewhere sees rain, sleet or snow or nothing.

 

Medium term - high pressure looks set to reside over the country generating a very cold pool of surface air. At this time of year, the UK can generate its very own freezing pool. It is a very cold outlook for the time of year in this respect - you don't need raging northeasterlies for sub-freezing weather at this time of year, stagnant cold air equally does the job.

 

Next weekend could be a stunner for cold loving outdoor enthusiasts....

[Summer Sun]

Wheres the link for that chart,thanks

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=0

Edited November 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM ensemble spread at T96hrs there is a cluster of solutions that back the UKMO placement of the shortwave. Generally though at such short range the operationals should be leading the way. Tonights ECM has moved towards the UKMO compared to its 00hrs which had the shortwave much further east.

 

Comments from NOAA in their update suggest a lot of uncertainty for the end of next week but with an east Pacific ridge and east coast troughing set up likely then the latter plays a pivotal role in terms of Europe, the degree of amplification of that will effect the high near the UK.

Edited November 16, 2013 by nick sussex

[Tim Bland]

Can anyone see / post the GFS ensembles? They are not working for me on the data centre. Thanks in advance

[Summer Sun]

Can anyone see / post the GFS ensembles? They are not working for me on the data centre. Thanks in advance

 

Yes I have them

 

[radiohead]

18Z GFS stuck at T12.

 

Nevermind, it's rolling now, just a little slower.

Edited November 16, 2013 by radiohead

[bluearmy]

Note tues 12z sees the first 'live' run of the upgraded ecm ens. Good timing!

ecm spreads at day 10 raising heights around se greenland. Just going to check naefs spreads as the 00z run was very persistant in clustering heights at this locale.

EDIT: Tbh, naefs 12z week 2 reveals that the gefs and gem ens must be all over the place with no solid direction of travel.

Edited November 16, 2013 by bluearmy

[Wilxy]

As metociel stopped working?

 

Netweather chart viewer stuck aswel.

[Timmytour]

On a scale from 0-5 of how likely is an imminent outbreak of wintry weather, I'd we are currently on a three day rolling average of 3.4modpph*

For my own part I can't say the signs are too promising for midweek in relation to the kind of weather we could expect from the same synoptics in a month's time, but I do like the way everything's shaping so far for the longer term. Mind you that means nothing....I don't think at this stage last winter there was much optimism about but it turned into one of my favourites.

*modpph = model output discussions pages per hour

Edited November 16, 2013 by Timmytour

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean has consigned the 12z op run to the bin where it belongs, if anything, tonight's ens mean has strengthened the cold and very blocked outlook which the 00z showed and actually, tonight's mean looks remarkably like the latest met office update described today..cold outlook looks locked in and this run is very much on the same page as the ukmo 12z..and craig is happy again.......the atlantic looks as dead as monty pythons parrot..

Edited November 16, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Joe Levy]

Netweather chart viewer stuck aswel.

Moving very slowly, now on t24

[Snowy L]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

 

 

Wetterzentrale seems to be working and is on 60 hours. Looks like we have a very slight shift west looking at the 850 temperatures, which is good news.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Snowy L

[Cloud 10]

Note tues 12z sees the first 'live' run of the upgraded ecm ens. Good timing!ecm spreads at day 10 raising heights around se greenland. Just going to check naefs spreads as the 00z run was very persistant in clustering heights at this locale.

 

 

...speaking of ECM ensembles,i can see the scale being lowered to -15 in the near

future!

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM ENS mean is quite different to the operational and probably closer to the UKM.

That's great to hear young matty!!

Hopefully the ecm is leading Ian Brown and shed head up the garden path..   (only joking fellas).

[I remember Atlantic 252]

upto 90 on meteociel, shortwave further west, reminds me of Jan 14th '13

[Snowman.]

IF this run is correct then there should be some heavy snow before rain takes over.

 

[shaky]

upto 90 on meteociel, shortwave further west, reminds me of Jan 14th '13

and boy what a snow event that was for the midlands

[I remember Atlantic 252]

and boy what a snow event that was for the midlands

 

wrong thread sorry, not the west, was sleet

[shaky]

wrong thread sorry, not the west, was sleet

in the east midlands it was all snow