Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Snowy L]

High pressure building over Greenland that wasn't on the 12z. I have a feeling we will see something similar to the ECM, only it's looking like the low will undercut on this run.

[radiohead]

Very similar to the 12Z so far. High is getting flattened just a little more. We'll see what happens later,  but no swing towards the UKMO at this point.

 

[Tom Jarvis]

well small changes with a small gap in the shortwaves where the high pressure could squeeze throughthe gap is just over the coast of Greenland

Edited November 16, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[swfc]

at 138 hrs its pretty obv the high is heading towards scan but then being squeezed.where too tho ?

[shaky]

Very similar to the 12Z so far. High is getting flattened just a little more. We'll see what happens later, but no swing towards the UKMO at this point.

well at 96 hours it clearly headed towards the ukmo!!the low is in the centre of england in this run compared to the 12z which had it off the east coast.so thats a huge difference very early on.

[Cheshire Freeze]

This run looks to be headed the same way as the 12z to me. Nowhere really for the high to go except for it to sit around the UK for a while whilst pressure is exerted on it by the troughing S of Greenland.

[radiohead]

well at 96 hours it clearly headed towards the ukmo!!the low is in the centre of england in this run compared to the 12z which had it off the east coast.so thats a huge difference very early on.

 

I mean in terms of the wider NH pattern.

 

 

 

Anyway, 18Z NAE at T48 showing rain turning to sleet and snow edging into Western Scotland and NI.

 

[Tim Bland]

Meto / bbc covering all angles with ". Wet on Wednesday with further snow possible" would be interesting if Ian F could update is with what MOGREPS is showing. 18z slightly further west which is good news. Let's hope the ECM switches to the UKMO output in the morning

[shaky]

I mean in terms of the wider NH pattern.

yeh I know what u mean.hopefully things change for the better tomorrow

Anyway, 18Z NAE at T48 showing rain turning to sleet and snow edging into Western Scotland and NI.

[snowstorm445]

The latest GFS certainly isn't bad if your after cold and frosty weather. Yes, there aren't any cold uppers and little in the way of wintry precipitation, but it looks like we may see some cold and frosty nights ahead, and fairly benign weather as well. Overall, a fairly decent and settled winter spell, with no return to Atlantic zonal weather in the reliable timeframe.

[The Northern Ramper]

Meto / bbc covering all angles with ". Wet on Wednesday with further snow possible" would be interesting if Ian F could update is with what MOGREPS is showing. 18z slightly further west which is good news. Let's hope the ECM switches to the UKMO output in the morning

When does Ian F ever update with what the MOGREPS is showing? He may if we are lucky give us an incling on what Exeter are thinking.

[pages]

_{18z navgem is an upgrade, everything further west, Tuesdays snow only clipping wales and the low out west is going under at 108, prolonged cold and easterly coming.}

Edited November 16, 2013 by pages

[pages]

Navgem has some beefy snows shows for the east coast at 108 with north easterly warm SST and -7/8 uppers.

[radiohead]

When does Ian F ever update with what the MOGREPS is showing? He may if we are lucky give us an incling on what Exeter are thinking.

 

96 and 120 FAX charts will give us an idea.

[pages]

lets hope UKMO, BOM and NAVGEM are closer to the correct solution than the 18z GFs as the real cold never gets in then it powers up the vortex.

[Tim Bland]

Poor long term from 18z GFS http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4449/gfs-0-300_ige5.png

Re Mogreps Ian F often gives us updates when we are on the cusp of a cold spell. If Not on here then on twitter. I don't put much faith in the fax's 99.9% of the time they are identical to the UKMO raw output and chop and change with every run. Btw A few Meto folks were tweeting earlier that they didn't buy the UKMO as it was more extreme than any other model and too far west with the front on weds

[swfc]

Not really sure what to make of the 18z tbh?Looks a million miles away from the ukmo and is downgrading every run.Can it be that far off the mark!!!Given the ecm also it makes you wonder where even the middle ground is

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not really sure what to make of the 18z tbh?Looks a million miles away from the ukmo and is downgrading every run.Can it be that far off the mark!!!Given the ecm also it makes you wonder where even the middle ground is

 

The thing is, even the ECM is not really following its own ensemble suite so it's difficult to know what is going on. The only thing I can think of is that the op runs are leading the way, with the UKMO out on a limb?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

So good that we are seeing these conditions happening now building the cold up. I couldn't really care if we don't see as much snow as what the models were making out 2 days or so ago. To see the cold going into Europe is what makes me happy, as after all, what can one expect in the middle of November? Certainly not ice days by any means or anything remotely severe. 

The more cold we can build to tap into hopefully around christmas or beyond will satisfy me very well. Its all well and good seeing these conditions now, but there is no cutting blade element with the cold just yet.

Patience, I think this is only the first of a considerably cold winter, that could perhaps rival 2010/11 as a whole, not just December. 

[swfc]

The thing is, even the ECM is not really following its own ensemble suite so it's difficult to know what is going on. The only thing I can think of is that the op runs are leading the way, with the UKMO out on a limb?

Yes you may be correct the ukmo seems miles away in how and where it places the high.Leaves the whole thing very flat tho and the pv looks as tho any disruption to it is weakening!!

[fergieweather]

Quick update. UKMO have elected to run with their GM unmodified at T+84 due to better continuity/consensus. More on the ramifications around this tomorrow when I get a chance.

[radiohead]

18Z JMA is quite similar to 12Z UKMO at T84

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm sorry but to me  there's only one likely outcome after all this dust settles, is it any coincidence that seasonal models have flipped to mild & Zonal just as the output has started to go downhill? I don't think so.

 

Have they?

 

[Joe Levy]

I'm sorry but to me  there's only one likely outcome after all this dust settles, is it any coincidence that seasonal models have flipped to mild & Zonal just as the output has started to go downhill? I don't think so.

I don't follow this line of thought. Genuine question, but could you provide a link/chart from the seasonal models to show the point you just made? The impression I've got from the models is that there is huge uncertainty but nothing clearly downhill or uphill from a wintry perspective.

[bluearmy]

Why the surprise? Gfs 18z in shock fail with split flow energy !! no point in making complex judgements based on a gfs pub run. faxes late ( no surprise there)

So we know the faxes will be worth waiting for judging by ians post. Jma 18z ( didnt even realise there was one) is marginally further east than its 12z with the warm sector midweek. looks further east than ukmo.

Edited November 16, 2013 by bluearmy