Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[cooling climate]

The ECM 12z is all over the place tonight and so different from the 0z. It could be

just a rogue operational run but with such inconsistency I would bin it.

[Phantom2]

Very good for what exactly? Is it good for rain/sleet/snow/frost/sunshine? Would be nice if there was more detail in peoples posts.  As most on here love snowy weather, the ECM 96 hour chart will not be good for that and it looks fairly dry too me anyways, could be some nice crisp Autumn sunshine with any showers being in Northern areas but more or less of rain due to uppers not being cold enough.  The UKMO does look like it maybe something more sustained and colder than just a small chilly snap with limited snowfall but at least a frosty period is on the cards after such a mild Autumn.

If you've been following this thread the first five words of your post are meaningless and insulting to Steve!

[shaky]

Somebody please stop the ecm from finishing its run!!its just hideous compared to the ukmo and the ever scrutinised gfs!!more like the ecm has been all over the place lately.

[Frosty.]

I'm sure mogreps and tonight's fax charts will look more like the ukmo 12z tonight.

 

wait for the Ecm 12z ens mean, i'm sure it will put the op run where it deserves to be...

Edited November 16, 2013 by Frosty.

[SMU]

the answer was in the post.

Do we just disregard anything that doesn't show what we want? Can you explain why you think it's is wrong and the UKMO is right ?

 

& I do believe I have ignored all the shi*e runs from the GFS that topple the high at day 5/6/7 & so on....

Maybe its because ive seen it all before from the models & there bias......

 

but just to say it again the ECM looks to be forcing to much northern arm jet energy into the block forcing it to topple just like yesterdays ECM.

The weather isn't MESSY very often- usually its seemless transitions.... The ECM is very messy.

 

No since POST 2009, where the Euros seem more clued up with blocking but the GFS eastward bias still remains the All hail IAn ( or GFS) suddenly fails day in day out....

So what I read for the last week......

Toppler, sinker, flat & zonal coming, its all over soon- all from Ians posts actually was lead by the GFS- which of course is wrong.

 

** IF YOU KNOW THE BIAS YOU KNOW HOW TO PLAY THE MODELS *

 

The ECM is likely to be wrong tonight, it has ZERO continuity with the ECM 00z suite or Mean, or the UKMO or the 00z ECM operational.

 

Your welcome to question why I discard it, however its Always for good reason, not just because it doesn't point to cold.

 

 

 

S

Edited November 16, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Cheshire Freeze]

Can't say I'm really convinced by the ECM progression between 120-144 hours. Run it through and you'll see what I mean. Then again I think the 144 hr UKMO chart may well be a little too optimistic. As ever we'll have to see what tomorrow brings.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends with the high remaining in place

 

 

Coldest conditions building in eastern and south eastern Europe

 

Edited November 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[shedhead]

Once again this evening the big two take another sizable step back from anything wintry next week, with the track of Weds shortwave on both ECM and GFS likely to deliver nothing more than cold rain to 90% of the populus. UKMO does show more wintry potential with the shortwave further west, but do we favour it because it really is the best model at 120-144hrs, or because it shows the coldest evolution?  Looking at later next week and the early part of the following week, I'm still struggling to see where all the bullish optimism is coming from.  Yes it looks pretty cold, but as has been the case for several days now that cold looks set be delivered by quiet, settled weather...not that I'm complaining about that.

Edited November 16, 2013 by shedhead

[Gaz1985]

t216 see's the high staying put

 

 

remaining chilly, though eastern Europe is becoming a lot colder

 

 

I'm sure Bottesford will be pleased with this if it came off, Berlin sat in -10 uppers.  

Edited November 16, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Nick F]

Nick based on the UKMO as you comment on-I would say that forecast couldn't be further away if you tried. Becoming drier?http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013111612/UW144-21.GIF?16-18 I think you need to rethink that forecast fella ( based on the UKMO only) - unless you are basing it on a UKMO GFS blend which may then be less cold & drier from the East- but UKMO & GFS are miles apart.S

The becoming dry comment is based on GFS and ECM looks dry too away from the SE. I agree UKMO ain't dry with that low in the south North Sea, but I tend to always favour EC and GFS at T+144 if they are showing similar. Not getting excited unless the models converge towards UKMO ... Besides we don't no how cold the airmass will be by then anyway.

[Snowman.]

ECM ends with the high remaining in place

 

 

Coldest conditions building in eastern and south eastern Europe

 

I'm finding it odd how it doesn't want to pushed north either you would expect to a little.

[ARNOTT ad]

the answer was in the post.

& I do believe I have ignored all the shi*e runs from the GFS that topple the high at day 5/6/7 & so on....
Maybe its because ive seen it all before from the models & there bias......

but just to say it again the ECM looks to be forcing to much northern arm jet energy into the block forcing it to topple just like yesterdays ECM.
The weather isn't MESSY very often- usually its seemless transitions.... The ECM is very messy.



No since POST 2009, where the Euros seem more clued up with blocking but the GFS eastward bias still remains the All hail IAn ( or GFS) suddenly fails day in day out....
So what I read for the last week......
Toppler, sinker, flat & zonal coming, its all over soon- all from Ians posts actually was lead by the GFS- which of course is wrong.

** IF YOU KNOW THE BIAS YOU KNOW HOW TO PLAY THE MODELS *

The ECM is likely to be wrong tonight, it has ZERO continuity with the ECM 00z suite or Mean, or the UKMO or the 00z ECM operational.

Your welcome to question why I discard it, however its Always for good reason, not just because it doesn't point to cold.



S[/quote

You are 100% correct there! Couldn't have said it better.

[radiohead]

The 120 FAX chart tonight will be the best judgement of the UKMO GM vs. ECM since it has human input.

[ARNOTT ad]

It's crazy how in this day n age of technology the models still and will always continue to struggle and disagree with each other at such short range! Most especially in interesting weather changes/patterns.

[doctormog]

Once again this evening the big two take another sizable step back from anything wintry next week, with the track of W

Tuesday looks almost as wintry as it ever did?http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.pngThere are 500-1000hPa thicknesses in the mid 510s at that point, pretty wintry for autumn.

[Cheshire Freeze]

In fact, looking at the 120-144 progression on the ECM it's almost certainly not handling LP in the Atlantic correctly. LP just pushes into the block when at 120 it looks to be going under. Either the laws of physics have changed or it's erroneous.

[bluearmy]

It's crazy how in this day n age of technology the models still and will always continue to struggle and disagree with each other at such short range! Most especially in interesting weather changes/patterns.

 

doesnt it show how complex the solution is ? resolving all those equations and still it isnt enough. sometimes its just like that. its interesting that each suite seems to have a different take on the heights around iceland/greenland but we arent seeing them slip away run after run. it is fascinating. feet on the ground - dont expect too much and you wont be disappointed.  

[Frosty.]

Exactly steve, that's why I stuck it in the wheely bin, because it is so out of sync with the Ecm 00z ens mean, the 0z mean was a peach and i'm sure the 12z will be too.

[SMU]

My Post above has been edited by HR which is why it doesn't read correctly now-

 

No time to review the rest of the evenings runs-

 

Watch for the ECM 00z heading optimistically to the UKMO 12z.

 

Remember, If the UKMO isn't on board its not going to happen.

S

 

 

I didn't join TWO calling myself Melanie to post the same GFS nonsence.....although Ian did.

Edited November 16, 2013 by Steve Murr

[shedhead]

Tuesday looks almost as wintry as it ever did?http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn662.pngThere are 500-1000hPa thicknesses in the mid 510s at that point, pretty wintry for autumn.

Tuesday is cold, locally very cold and wintry without question, but up until recently both Weds and Thurs looked the same, if not colder.  Now both GFS and ECM bring a sizable warm sector south across the UK on Weds, meaning cold rain for most IF correct, with drier conditions returning thereafter.

[Mucka]

Given that they dont know what to do with that shortwave around 72hrs you'd expect them to be slightly different!

*cold for Central/Eastern Europe!! A proper Scandi would be nice at the end of this run.

 

I would expect them to be slightly different without that shortwave. The point is they are more than "slightly" different and none of the models are showing any intra run consistency let alone any kind of consensus at relatively short time-frames so we really have little to go on which model, if any, is on the right track.

Also that shortwave is not driving the pattern upstream (to our west) where the real dilemma of where the energy goes is decided though of course it will have some knock on effect.

[Tim Bland]

We need to pray the UKMO is correct. To the north and east of that low you can expect snow. Other main models indicate sleet or rain as it places it further east.

[Frosty.]

I always have faith in the ukmo, as does the pendulum scenes like this next week in favoured spots.,,especially cairngorm

[shedhead]

GFS and ECM handle Weds shortwave in pretty much the same way, taking into the N Sea. Only UKMO handle it rather differently by taking it down across the western side of the UK, but I guarantee that if both ECM and GFS were doing this and UKMO was taking it into the North Sea far fewer members would be singing it's praises.  Need to wait until the 00's are in now for the next installment in this latest drama, but I'd be surprised to see things moved west in the morning.

Edited November 16, 2013 by shedhead

[UV-RAY]

GFS and ECM handle Weds shortwave in pretty much the same way, taking into the N Sea. Only UKMO handle it rather differently by taking it down across the western side of the UK, but I guarantee that if both ECM and GFS were doing this and UKMO was taking it into the North Sea far fewer members would be singing it's praises.  Need to wait until the 00's are in now for the next installment in this latest drama, but I'd be surprised to see things moved west in the morning.

Possibly as these things rarely get corrected westwards at this sort of time range, we have to hope that it's the UKMO who has the best handle on this if it's snow your looking for.