Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Summer Sun]

Out of GFS and UKMO, UKMO continues to have the coldest 850's at t120 and t144

 

GFS

 

 

UKMO

 

 

950mb low in FI from GFS

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Snowman.]

As you where.

 

 

No stopping the flow across the Arctic 

[A.J]

Quite a few really daft reactionary posts recently......Either compile posts containing model output related material, or don't bother posting in this thread.....it's quite a simple concept, really it is!

[Ian Brown]

remember the GFS has a very good habit of overdoing lows and underdoing the strength of the HP if we take that into account the low should slide southeast

Tom, I've seen scores of these and the times that has happened can be counted on one hand. 

[Snowman.]

Hello!!  after some days of cross flow we have it!

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[weatherguy]

And how many of those GFS super storms actually come off? 

 

Interesting to note the presence of HLB in FI though, always a promising sign at least. 

 

PS - Amidst the FI talk I've neglected to discuss the shorter term output!  Well, it ain't that bad for snow (in the north in particular) and cold lovers 

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by weatherguy

[Methuselah]

A lot contusion in the models just now. Makes disentanglement somewhat problematic?

[Ian Brown]

Yes, but didn't you say the 12z was over-progressive? Anyway, I'm more concerned with getting that arctic air here to start with because we are still well outside the reliable time frame for that.

 

Yes absolutely this is still some time away, but nothing to suggest that this is anymore than a 36-42 hour event.

[garbagebags]

Yes absolutely this is still some time away, but nothing to suggest that this is anymore than a 36-42 hour event.

Yes but not just any event, potentially a blizzard event dumping feet of snow. Hardly something to just dismiss offhand.

[Snowman.]

Vortex in 2?

 

 

Jet stream heading south?

 

[weatherguy]

Yes but not just any event, potentially a blizzard event dumping feet of snow. Hardly something to just dismiss offhand.

 

If you live on the summit of Ben Nevis, perhaps!  

 

Let's not overblow this; the potential is there for a decent snow event, but it's no battleground scenario.

[tight isobar]

Gfs continuation of shortening cold SNAP..not to say this Will not change, However you tend to think with no/ little sign of any significant blocking father NW, this could be just that, a snap..let's see.!!!!

[Barry12]

Gfs continuation of shortening cold SNAP..not to say this Will not change, However you tend to think with no/ little sign of any significant blocking father NW, this could be just that, a snap..let's see.!!!!

 

Continuation? The GFS 06z extended the cold snap from the 00z, now the 12z has shortened it, no continuation there.

Edited November 29, 2013 by Barry95

[tight isobar]

Gfs continuation of shortening cold SNAP..not to say this Will not change, However you tend to think with no/ little sign of any significant blocking father NW, this could be just that, a snap..let's see.!!!!

....this post is in regard to recent/ current output incidentaly, not to say this now highly probably snap won't materialize...and certainly not suggests, upgrades, alignment for more notable cold mid December..

[phil nw.]

Come on guys don't fall out over weather charts-remember that's all they are.

Members are entitled to have different opinions without being attacked.

It would be far better if we keep emotions out of posts and show charts or data to support a particular view.

 

If anyone wants to ramp or grumble please go the model moan/ramp thread here-

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

 

if you don't wish to discuss things reasonably.

 

Thanks all.

[Snowman.]

Can we get a new thread for the ECM this one is getting a bit big.

Edited November 29, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[tight isobar]

Continuation? The GFS 06z extended the cold snap from the 00z, now the 12z has shortened it, no continuation there.

, if you saw my post regards. The 6z suite, I personaly disregarded that particular run...thus my take on ouput,

[bluearmy]

i cant believe we are discussing gfs low res when its clearly struggling, like the other models, with upstream jet phasing eary on. if gfs is on the right track then the second depression will probably track further south than it currently shows - it always does. where it meets the embedded cold air, there will be snow. that might only be the northern half of scotland but last time i checked that was still pasrt of the UK. can we move on now please ?

[Biggin]

Hello!!  after some days of cross flow we have it!

 

Well That looks quite a dramatic scenario. Miles away in time but dramatic none the less.  Would love that to come off.

Edited November 29, 2013 by phil nw.
personal remarks removed.

[bluearmy]

just to add GEM 12z brushes ne uk with the northerly before the ridge comes across us. at the end of its run it looks rather like gfs low res with massive WAA towards svaalbard and an angry looking atlantic.

[swfc]

Id aree with BA there.Tbh anything beyond the 108 hr mark is up in the air given the up and downs with the various options regarding any low pressure leaving the eastern seaboard.The ukmo does look ok but as with all models can and will change in the next 24-48 hrs.Fair to say a cold shot is on the cards atm but for how long or how cold no one has a clue

[Tamara]

i cant believe we are discussing gfs low res when its clearly struggling, like the other models, with upstream jet phasing eary on. if gfs is on the right track then the second depression will probably track further south than it currently shows - it always does. where it meets the embedded cold air, there will be snow. that might only be the northern half of scotland but last time i checked that was still pasrt of the UK. can we move on now please ?

Yes its this split flow which gives the chance (and it is only a chance) of extending the cold snap by a day or so due to a secondary amplification beyond the initial northerly, before we return most likely to High pressure. However, the initial arctic incursion still has uncertainty attached to it, so we cannot hope to gauge what might happen after this in terms of any detail so far out 

[tight isobar]

Id aree with BA there.Tbh anything beyond the 108 hr mark is up in the air given the up and downs with the various options regarding any low pressure leaving the eastern seaboard.The ukmo does look ok but as with all models can and will change in the next 24-48 hrs.Fair to say a cold shot is on the cards atm but for how long or how cold no one has a clue

....a fair assessment, of current prognosis...

[Downpour]

Blow torch is a go!

 

In the far reaches of FI.

[Tom Jarvis]

just to add GEM 12z brushes ne uk with the northerly before the ridge comes across us. at the end of its run it looks rather like gfs low res with massive WAA towards svaalbard and an angry looking atlantic.

GEM isn't out yet fully