Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

we need energy to drop down into Europe its looking a little ify already but lets hope t144 to t168 don't disappoint.

Looks a carbon copy of the 06z run to me?

[Ian Brown]

The trigger low to the NW is not as deep on this run, but it may not make too much difference.

[Panayiotis]

A new feature on the 12z over USA, hopefully this can give us a help as it should amplify the pattern...

Edited November 29, 2013 by Panayiotis

[MR EXTREMES]

but looks awfully messy at t144 but can see the heights in the states which can only be a good thing surely.

[Ian Brown]

A new feature on the 12z over USA, hopefully this can give us a help as it should amplify the pattern...

We need to see that slow down and linkage of heights between the Atlantic and SW of Greenland.

[Joe Levy]

Looking better to me at t150, but we shall see what happens later. Anything could happen!

Edited November 29, 2013 by Joe Levy

[shaky]

Anything on the 12zs?for some reason I cant see anything posted on this forum on my samsung s4.anybody else having this issue?

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks a carbon copy of the 06z run to me?

Well there is a 990mb low over Southern Canada at T144 that certainly did not exist before

 

Previous run

So much confusion here

As for the run, looks very good, the area between the Atlantic ridge and the high over North East Canada is stopping progress of the low and the Canadian high is being shifted east by the developing American trough.

Edited November 29, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

upstream over the states, that different jet profile creates a big depression some 48 hours earlier than the 06z. seeing as the whole evolution is about timing, what should we deduce from the rest of this run ????

[MR EXTREMES]

ah t150 looks rather exciting that lil low is deepening nicely will it wont it drop down it looks a little more east than we would like surely ?

[gottolovethisweather]

I think at this rate we'll be looking at doing a ensemble comparison trend looking at the HP heights over the UK in the coming weeks. Whatever is to happen long-term, its far too early to say as the wheels are being set in motion at t+108 hours now and anywhere thereafter is on a knife-edge concerning our little part of he world. What I do believe, whether snow or no snow, next week and beyond are the Temps are slowly trending far from anything mild.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well some kind of North westerly looks odds on now.

The secondary low looks ever so slightly more developed and a bit faster though.

[Mucka]

Snow pushing SE as the colder air digs in. 

 

[Snowman.]

Going to look very different in FI.

Edited November 29, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[gottolovethisweather]

No.

No.

No.

 

You're on shaky ground there.   Never say never, I say, never say never.

[Panayiotis]

The two lows have now phased over the US *hopefully* the amplification can now take place but we shall see:

Edited November 29, 2013 by Panayiotis

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013112912/UN144-21.GIF?29-17

 

All important UKMO in range-

 

 

looking great- especially for the North & NW

 

S

[Snowman.]

Western face of the country getting a plastering.

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

     Well im not sure its going to be as pretty as 06z but many in NW Britain will be seeing snow showers next Friday if gfs is on the money..

EXPECT UPGRADES from the metoffice  

Edited November 29, 2013 by happy days

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

And now for the decent model.........

UKMO looking good for cold air moving down the UK at T144

 

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Ian Brown]

The Azores low may help to prolong it a little that is if it even pans out like this, but the Low coming off the Seaboard is going to end the flow.

[Snowman.]

Pretty much can snow anywhere according to the 12z.

 

]

[Ice Day]

Looking great for Scotland at 174.......if cold if your thing!

 

 

Minus 10 uppers just edging into the North West 

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by Ice Day

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The Azores low may help to prolong it a little that is if it even pans out like this, but the Low coming off the Seaboard is going to end the flow.

cmon IB lets just enjoy the first taste of winter for MANY ..

[SMU]

Ian-

 

rem what I said last year - 2 lows separating over Greenland ( West coast)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112912/gfsnh-0-180.png?12

 

not as good as 2010 but a split flow none the less normally means no toppler-

 

All the atlantic low will do is disrupt out & slide SE...

 

UKMO 144 upper air is EPIC- deep cold waiting in the wings.