Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Altohumorous]

The recent patterns are to me reminiscent of winter 77/78 and perhaps also 79/80. When you consider that these winters also occurred in the midst of a period of colder winters, it's not an unreasonable speculative comparison. In 77/78 the pattern stuck for a long time. That is not to be deliberately foreboding, as I am myself a lover of cold spells and interesting/dynamic weather especially in winter.

My feeling about the recent pattern has been that it will last through December at least. My optimistic side is also greedily/selfishly looking at this potential cold snap in a week, because I will be in Germany from 6-9 December, and look to be right in line for at least a decent two days of 'real winter'. Would be nice to see the fabled Xmas markets in such seasonal weather.

I do think the pattern recently and currently is one that has great potential for a shift to a pattern more conducive to colder and more dynamic weather in this part of the world. I would expect it to take a while for that bit of a shift to be able to happen. Overall the pattern doesn't seem to be one that will shift towards more permanentally zonal, as that hasn't happened in a few years now really.

Edited November 29, 2013 by Altohumorous

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Do you really think the ecm and gfs have the Northern hemisphere correctly modeled 9-10 days away?

 

If they are both correct then I SALUTE them,as I have never seen them be correct at that time-frame ,ever!

 

The start of the cold spell isn't even certain yet,until it hits the reliable time-frame,which is usually about 4-5 days ahead,max.

 

I bet even the MET can't decide which way this is going yet.

 

They don't call FL fantasy land for nothing you know.

 

At least the ecm has been fairly consistent in it's latter output.

 

The last 3 gfs runs have been nothing but cold or mild outlers in it's latter output,so that model  is obviously clueless what the eventual outcome will .be.

 

As ever,more runs needed

 

Latest tweet from Ian F says Meto suggest cold spell will be short lived.

Obviously doesn't mean they will turn out right though, or albeit wrong.

Any cold is better than no cold at all.

Edited November 29, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Yarmy]

So the ECM looks good again with its long-fetch Northerly at T192, GFS not so. And in FI, the GFS plants the PV over Canada and builds a massive Euro high whereas on the 18z last night the vortex was obliterated. So no confidence whatsoever beyond 10 days (but when is there ever?).

[Chess01]

well to be honest it was always going to be a cold snap still might be a European onslaught instead of uk yet.oh well shame it was not for Christmas eve or day be nice to have a white Christmas not likely well theres always January.

What are you on about Christmas is 3 weeks away just a day ago the models where showing freezing cold weather yet today they show less cold weather . Stop being foolish because there's only going to be a short period of cold and then If you go by the models we are back to square one . We cannot predict what's going on in a weeks time let alone 3 weeks

[Barry12]

2 cold days with snow for some, followed by a return to average temperatures, could be a lot worse!

[Summer Sun]

GEM is not so keen on a cold spell to the extent of ECM

 

 

Next weeks cold will last till March according to a certain newspaper, more like 3 or 4 days

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Except in your world Frosty, where the polar opposite applies..

That's not my fault, I have Bipolar disorder which cause mood swings but I always try to brighten things up on here and give an honest view of the models with lots of data, yes I have a cold bias but then I like cold weather in winter. :-)

[swfc]

Even at 106 hrs its pretty obv on the 6z where this run is going imo.less amplified atlantic and it looks like a double set of lows coming of the eastern seaboard.Early on but not what you want to see so early on.hopefully the first low will be a trigger low and the second one disrupts 

Edited November 29, 2013 by swfc

[Bristawl Si]

Latest tweet from Ian F says Meto suggest cold spell will be short lived.

Obviously doesn't mean they will turn out right though, or albeit wrong.

Any cold is better than no cold at all.

That's consistent with their view from a few days ago, as well.

I hopethis winter isn't going to end up like pre-2009, when the coldest weather always seemed to get shunted thru Central Europe and down into the Balkans and towards Greece. We had a number of those scenarios in the early days of NW.

[TSNWK]

108 hours and changes already and not for the best me thinks. Low presure deeper off the eastern seaboard ard the mid Atlantic high is slightly south east... Mmmmm trends trends...

Edited November 29, 2013 by TSNWK

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs is getting close to a near miss for the uk I don't think this high pressure will stick around that long its looking likely a more westerly mobile weather type once this sets in could be waiting for sometime for another attempt.

 

Im happy I didn't fall for the snow mania hype.

[Altohumorous]

Just looked over some old charts again there, and there are significant similarities between our current and recent patterns and those of the late autumn/early winters I mentioned above, plus also 1980/81 and 75/76 (probably also 74/75, and maybe 73/74).

The closest similarity I've found so far is to 75/76, which had a couple of decent short cold spells, and was otherwise a mild winter. In all cases the weather was dominated by high prressure to the south, over these islands, or to the southeast. None of them were particularly stormy or unusually zonal from an intensity point of view. Which is similar to recent years.

In all cases occasional arctic incursions happened, and in late Jan/early feb 1976 a northerly gave way to an easterly, which lasted a few days, though it wasn't especially potent.

In other words, in a period often noted for its cold winters, there were many mild or just 'normal'/temperate winters. And unlike one or two recent periods where severe cold over the continent was often just out of reach, the winters I've mentioned never looked like having anything very severe, except during that short period in 1976.

 

Mind you I haven't looked beyond january in any of them really, but my memory and revision over the years tells me nothing of any great severity or at least of prolonged severity happened in any of those winters.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

06z looks a big improvement to my eyes?

better shape to the jet imo.

[radiohead]

Intense low south of Iceland on the 06Z GFS.

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

going to be a good run this one the secondary low is much less developed meaning the ridge will be further west.

[swfc]

Wow how complicated is gfs atm?looks very suspect even in the so called reliable!upstream signals must be more confused than scooby doo just now I think mr murrs comments on the gfs may have some merit

[radiohead]

Stormy for Scotland, deep low dragging cold air down in its wake. Could be a blizzard event for high ground up there.

 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Don't worry about the potential cold spell at the end of the week just yet as it's gonna be pretty chilly all next week :-)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ali1977]

Very different GFS run, most noticeable over the pond, not sure how this will effect us, slightly delayed Northerly to start with.

Looks like lower 850s, and covering all of the UK, not just the North and East.

Edited November 29, 2013 by Ali1977

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Good run for NW Britian with snow showers packing into NW Scotland and NIreland next Friday on a brisk NWesterly wind.

Would be a lovely way to start December.

[Mair Snaw]

So having just seen the Express headline....it clearly states that the MET OFFICE have warned of this coming 3 month killer freeze...so i was just wondering how they can say this...has the Met Office told them this or not??? i wanted to Ask if Ian F could let us know?

 

We are all looking at the models and see FI at around t96 onwards at present so how can they be allowed to put a headline story like this out and quote the Met office....

[MPG]

06z looks a big improvement to my eyes?

better shape to the jet imo.

It seems that way. Why cant people wait for the run to complete before jumping to conclusions.(not aimed at you happy)

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

And snow showers piling into NW England later on into Fri night.

Would love to see some of the white stuff on the first weekend in December.

[swfc]

seems gfs is that confused its thrown towl in at 192 hrs   

[Altohumorous]

Further investigation shows me how poor memory can be! January 1978 became quite cold polar-maritime and february of that year had a significant cold easterly. However the november/dec of 77 wasn't as similar to this year as as 1976.

 

On the basis of a vague theory of comparisons between roughly the 1976-1987 period and the current one, we are around the 1980/1981 stage. Of course I know that the weather patterns are not going to compare in that way for a multitude of reasons, but it will be interesting to see does this winter bear alot of similarities to some of that era that weren't overall 'cold', relatively speaking.

 

In terms of the comparison if there are to be more similarities to the 70s/80s period, then we are due a very 'ordinary' winter.

 

In terms of this week, I think something between what the GFS and ECM are mostly showing in the last couple of days is likely, as this has often been the outcome in the past as far as I recall.