Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Captain Shortwave]

Looked at the GFS ens for the pub run. Output now given the seal of pointlessness.

Real mixed bag. Many member want to develop very deep depressions all over the place (north, west and east of the UK). The mean pretty much defaults by day 9 due to the mass of different solutions. There are some cold northerly solutions as well as ones with heights very close to the UK.

To be honest anything could happen beyond about 4 days out at the moment. North America looks like a shortwave minefield 

Edited November 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Skyraker]

Ensemble Watch.

Edited November 29, 2013 by Skyraker

[john pike]

 

gfs london ensembles

 

sort of agrees to the 5th

 

then take your pick afterwards as a huge spread there

[Jimmy0127]

Ensemble Watch.

 

Are you Steve's first author?

 

Nonetheless, great work, and will be very interested in the output.

Many thanks.

 

[Blake]

Just wondering if we could have a new thread for the weekend? It's getting a bit tired now and off topic at times! Speaking of off topic slightly...

 

If I may add, I think there was more confidence in FI this time round because there was a general agreement from most models of a similar set up? We've seen before how it looks cool/cold with no snow at T-120 to several inches of snow at T0 so let's wait until at least Monday before write anything off. I distinctly remember SM telling us to bin anything but the ECM a couple of weeks ago because they didn't show what many of us wanted to see and as soon as the ECM went the other way at about T-120 SM went quiet for a few days which goes to show that even the most experienced, respected and knowledgeable amongst use can find themselves with egg on their face.

 

I myself do get a little excited when I see the "S" word, but rarely over the 6 years of browsing here does it coming to fruit in the places or days models show at T-144 or beyond. It's normally looks to miss us marginally or be less snowfest looking at T-144 when it ends up striking us fully or missing us completely. Perhaps we should be more interested at runs hinting at a near miss 7+ days out because there tends to be a good 500 mile shift come T0.

 

It would be much better if we took a leaf out of Gibby's book to say what we see rather than saying "this model will show this later" or "this model will play catch up with this one in a couple of days because of its previous form". It would help a lot of those learning to understand what charts are showing and how things change from one run to another. Perhaps, Gibby (or SS), if you wouldn't mind, post the chart for each model and run you're analysing. It for one would help me and perhaps others too?

 

No intent to rattle cages or get anyone's back up here I spend a good 2 hours a day during the winter season, it's like a second home, but I'm not going to start paying rent

 

Have a good weekend, folks!

Edited November 29, 2013 by GUWeather

[Mucka]

A rather different GFS 00z FI than yesterdays freezer. A glancing Northerly followed by long fetch Southwesterlies

 

UKMO looks marginally better than GFS, hard to tell - could be a lot better though

 

 

 

GEM same story and NAVGEM no better

 

 

Let's hope for a stonking ECM and better ensembles from GFS

Edited November 29, 2013 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

As Forrest Gump's momma used to say.the GFS is like a box of chocolates..you never know what you're gonna get..

[Mucka]

As Forrest Gump's momma used to say.the GFS is like a box of chocolates..you never know what you're gonna get..

 

 

Marzipan, coffee and orange mostly.

 

But then there is the odd delicious treat such as this control run.

 

 

Naturally the ensembles are the usual mixed bag and not much use at the moment.

 

Edit that was p20 LOL here is the control. (Still yummy)

 

 

GFS ensembles.

 

Probably the best set yet as far as giving confidence in a Northerly but still no real signal for anything better than a 3 or 4 day cold snap. Personally I would happily take a 4 day cold snap if I saw some snow. Worth mentioning there is little sign of any mild weather either and you can see the Op was right out there on the mild side of the ensembles way above the mean. Given that it has shown absolutely no sign of getting a handle on things so far it is probably not worth worrying about for now and we are still best sticking with the Euros.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=246&y=89

Edited November 29, 2013 by Mucka

[Mucka]

Good morning all. My gut tells me we will see a fantastic ECM this morning - hope that isn't the kiss of death.

Eyes down...

[Great Plum]

Ah, the GFS - more volatile than sodium at the moment...

Whilst the ensembles stick to the routine of 'chilly' after the 3rd December or so, the op decides that the vortex isn't vortexy enough and goes 'off on one..'

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

To use that trite and overused phrase - more runs needed!

[Mucka]

ECM 144 pretty good agreement with UKMO. 

 

 

168 Boom!   

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by Mucka

[shaky]

Way better than ukmo at t144

[swfc]

Even tho the 0z gfs isnt great it is slightly better than the 18z and is disrupting the eastern seaboard low.ecm on the up with better ridging but who nos where or what later runs will show.ecm the better output so far tho for sure 

[Ian Brown]

T192 is quite interesting on the ECM because it appears to be sending the Atlantic energy under the block. The problem we have on the GFS and (would appear to have also on the UKMO at T144) is the Eastward ejection of the LP off the Seaboard, it's preventing linkage between the Atlantic High and heights over Greenland and thats crucial.

[Mark Neal.]

192hrs ECM. Chilly northerly! 

 

[Mucka]

Way better than ukmo at t144

 

Where do you get "way better" from?

They are very close IMO only ECM has very slightly better orientation but that might be because the UKMO is a touch slower.

[Snowmad79]

Looks like the downward trend of GFS ensembles members for the T850's is starting to gain momentum in the models. Regardless of whether the ops have been outliers the mean was painting the picture of a cold blast barely scraping the -5 mark a few days ago and dropping further yesterday with more members going for -8 to -10 850's.

 

The ecm looking good again this morning at T168 with the consistent portrayal of a cross polar flow and now with a glimpse of the possibility that we may see some WWA up towards greenland which can only be good for an attempt at a GLH blocking senario. Also looks like the PV is being displaced and not able to set up shop over the greenland area which is good news for my preference of weather.

 

Hopefully the trend can follow through or upgrade as FI output comes into the reliable and not turn out to be another red herring snowfest.

[Mark Neal.]

216hrs. The high edges back towards UK, lower heights start to gather towards Greenland, still very cold over UK. 

Edited November 29, 2013 by Mark N

[Ian Brown]

192hrs ECM. Chilly northerly! 

192hrs ecm.gif  FRIGID.GIF

 

Yes it shows a short cold plunge before HP moves back in, the NH profile is poor going forward though on both the ECM and GFS.

[terrier]

So however we try and dress it up this morning we have a 2 day cold blast before high pressure builds back in. I'm going to back the gfs again on this one. I know it gets a lot of stick but it trounced the ECM other week when ECM kept showing cold then finally jumped into line with the gfs. Not so sure it's as bad as people make out at times but that's my opnion

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yes it shows a short cold plunge before HP moves back in, the NH profile is poor going forward though on both the ECM and GFS.

The best we can hope for is a toppler.

The NH profile is just not going to allow anything sustained at this time.

Hopefully we might see a polar low with the warm seas and a bitterly cold northerly.

you never know...

[legritter]

Well a good start to the day on ecm ,it will be interesting to see what todays GFS throws up .just a few adjustments here and there could bring us some early winter Candy ,But as i said yesterday lets hopefully see steady consistent charts rather than Stella runs only to finish up down the drain ,

[Frosty.]

On a brighter note...part of the comet survived

 

As for the cold blast later next week, it's all still to play for, the tipping point when it goes one way or the other is not here yet

[joggs]

I dont know why people keep getting hung up on fi cracking outputs due to the fact they will 95%(in my mind)of the time downgrade!

To me a decent cold spell creeps up on us more on the output.

[bluearmy]

just when you think its safe to make a call, along comes ecm 00z op !!!  clearly events upstream are going to dictate what kind of cold plunge we get. events thereafter, despite what IB would have you believe are far from assured. just as a proper greeny block was never on the agenda for next week, so a normal mobile w-e zonal flow is not on the agenda to follow it.  (and it isnt even winter yet!!!! )