Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[johnholmes]

Another potential cold spell,another shortwave drama!

 

Is anyone keeping a tally of these? 

 

In blunt terms,we need the shortwave/low pressure (call it what you will) marked with

a red cross on this 12z GFS 144 hrs chart to sod off!....

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

it would be much more descriptive and less Americanised if it was called what it is- low pressure or  depression

[Skyraker]

it would be much more descriptive and less Americanised if it was called what it is- low pressure or  depression

 

 

Pet hate eh John?

Edited November 28, 2013 by Skyraker

[Cloud 10]

it would be much more descriptive and less Americanised if it was called what it is- low pressure or  depression

 

I dare not use the word "depression" on here. 

[johnholmes]

Pet hate eh John?

yup

[Yarmy]

it would be much more descriptive and less Americanised if it was called what it is- low pressure or  depression

 

Ha, I noticed in that NOAA update that Nick posted the phrase 'Pacific Energy'. It would probably help everyone if we had a jargon purge.

[swfc]

looks to me as the 18z going with the 12z barring the eastern seaboard low being slightly stretched.Amazing isnt it,we either get scuppered from the east by these features and now from the west!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

looks to me as the 18z going with the 12z barring the eastern seaboard low being slightly stretched.Amazing isnt it,we either get scuppered from the east by these features and now from the west!!

 

Will the elongated low actually help us though and head SE, perhaps initiating a snow event?

[Skyraker]

Will the elongated low actually help us though and head SE, perhaps initiating a snow event?

 

 

Where will the High go if that happens ?

 

*edit* What would be mustard would be the low to the east to dive SE & the low to the west to undercut or more likely go for a wander up north.

 

More chance of a tommy off the pope though I reckon.

Edited November 28, 2013 by Skyraker

[johnholmes]

Ha, I noticed in that NOAA update that Nick posted the phrase 'Pacific Energy'. It would probably help everyone if we had a jargon purge.

 

It would help everyone if we all used simple English and if we must use accronyms or non basic English explain the terms but then I am pretty much alone in this. Gawd help some of you if you were involved when I was in writing text forecasts for radio and tv and did not conform!

[Skyraker]

It would help everyone if we all used simple English and if we must use accronyms or non basic English explain the terms but then I am pretty much alone in this. Gawd help some of you if you were involved when I was in writing text forecasts for radio and tv and did not conform!

 

 

What is this 'radio' thing you speak of?

[TSNWK]

At 180 hours I think the stretched low is splitting off towards the south east.. Is that good?

[Yarmy]

What is this 'radio' thing you speak of?

 

It's some sort of app.

 

(Waaaay off topic, now)

 

Large Russian high developing from T240 onwards. Seen that a few times now.

Edited November 28, 2013 by Yarmy

[TSNWK]

At 180 hours I think the stretched low is splitting off towards the south east.. Is that good?

Nope... Diet coke in the pub tonight

[swfc]

Will the elongated low actually help us though and head SE, perhaps initiating a snow event?

Id think not imo.Id be thinking fi for me is still around the 108 hour mark.The diff from then on run to run is staggering atm given the proceedings across the pondAlso get ready for a big push towards greenland in deep fi 

Edited November 28, 2013 by swfc

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

So we have gone from -10 850's for next weekend from this morning , and replaced it with +10 850's this evening for the same time . . . The joys of the gfs !!!

[Skyraker]

LOL @ this run... it actually sodding gets there in the end, by the wierdest , most illogical way possible.

 

[cooling climate]

looks to me as the 18z going with the 12z barring the eastern seaboard low being slightly stretched.Amazing isnt it,we either get scuppered from the east by these features and now from the west!!

It only seems like that. The reason why the low spreads its energy over the top of the high

is because the pattern is not amplified enough. If their was greater heights then the low

would disrupt or track further south.

I am not saying this run is correct just the reason why the output is showing what it is.

[Frosty.]

I was shocked how poor the ecm 0z ens mean looked compared to the 0z op carlsberg run but tonight's 12z mean has regained some lost ground..about 50 percent. See you all for the 00z drama. :- )

Ps..I still think we are in for a wintry blast later next week.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Although this run isn't great, at least it bucks the trend of relocating the vortex over Greenland.....quite the opposite infact

 

 

Greenland positively toasty

 

Edited November 28, 2013 by CreweCold

[Skyraker]

This High wants to goto GL...... Iceland looks about right. Get that depression under the high and we have our CFS anomoly.

 

Edited November 28, 2013 by Skyraker

[TSNWK]

Christ this is tough to learn Despite improvements stateside early in the run, well Steve M thought so it all seemed to fall apart back end of high res. why is that? there seems a lot of focus on upstream developments, but I sometimes wonder why

Serious question, learning all the time.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Run ends with the vortex being attacked on three fronts

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

It only seems like that. The reason why the low spreads its energy over the top of the highis because the pattern is not amplified enough. If their was greater heights then the lowwould disrupt or track further south.I am not saying this run is correct just the reason why the output is showing what it is.

I really hope I'm wrong hear , but given the low heights over the pole the gfs solution is a possible one , if the high doesn't ridge north then that low would go over the top , sinking any high south , hence the warm uppers riding over the top of the high. Let's hope for a flip in the morning .

[OldMetMan]

For those of you who may not have experienced a "proper" northerly blast in early winter, this is one of the best examples I can remember. The polar lows it spawned dumped up to nearly a foot of snow along parts of the south coast.

This looks pretty benign, somewhat similar to now, but within a week, it became this:

Note the slow down of the upstream pattern with large LP off the Us E coast, powerful HP over Greenland and a distorted upper flow. This is the kind of development being hinted at by the GFS, well, not so the 12Z. As has been said, it's all about timing and system spacing, sometimes it works out perfectly, as in this example, but it's pretty rare.

We'll see!

[Skyraker]

I really hope I'm wrong hear , but given the low heights over the pole the gfs solution is a possible one , if the high doesn't ridge north then that low would go over the top , sinking any high south , hence the warm uppers riding over the top of the high.Let's hope for a flip in the morning .

 

 

Considering it's not even December, I think we're starting to see something really special.

 

Either way.. i'm putting the tree up.