Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Frosty.]

The NetWeather trauma unit is ready and raring to go in the event of further model turmoil! The ECM looks nothing like the GFS at T144hrs which is a relief, but we're not out of the woods yet, the real interest doesn't come till outside of 144hrs.

The fat lady won't be singing tonight then

[legritter]

Im hiding behind sofa ,i,ll wait till 7pm ,this chicken as teath 

[Frosty.]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112812/ECH1-144.GIF?28-0

 

144

 

Canadian high ridging East - CHECK

Atlantic High- CHECK

Shallow East coast low - CHECK

Small energy to southern Greenland- CHECK

 

COLD coming 168? CHECK

Yep steve, GAME ON

Edited November 28, 2013 by Frosty.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112812/ECH1-168.GIF?28-0

 

OH YES

 

East coast low hitting the brick wall up to Canada with trough disruption heading SE to reinforce the cold over the UK

 

S

[MR EXTREMES]

bit to knife edge for my liking t168 looks really a worry tbh.

 

but it has moved forwards with its progression.

Edited November 28, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Ian Brown]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112812/ECM1-168.GIF?28-0

 

Crunch time at T168, the Atlantic High has to cut off that cyclogenesis coming off the Seaboard, it's a race to the top.

[beng]

By the way Joe Bxastardi has tweeted that the latest GFS is probably wrong in how it's handling the us East Coast low.

Edited November 28, 2013 by beng

[cooling climate]

The models seem to be getting to grips with the pattern change to a much more

amplified and meridonal set up in about another 8 to 10 days time.

Seem to have been talking about this for ages now and its still more than a week

away. I see the GFS operational has had one of its wobbles to be expected I

suppose.

ECM run coming out now is setting up to be a very good run for us coldies and it

is now looking quite possible that we could be heading for a very potent spell of

wintry weather to come.

[Mucka]

ECMWF best of the bunch at 144hrs.

 

So be interesting to see how it develops post 144hrs..

 

 

I think the UKMO is better than people give it credit for at 144 with that shortwave SW Greenland ready to slide SE and amplify the pattern

 

ECM at 168 not bad but we need that shortwave to develop SW of Iceland and less energy coming over our ridge from that phasing low.

 

[bluearmy]

upstream height pattern over n america has not got good continuity on ecm T144/T168 from the 00z run. this has a way to go yet but encouraging signs for coldies that the pendulum has swung back a bit on the 12z suites thus far. lets hope this isnt as far as it gets before heading off in the other direction. i am never happy when ecm op is not consistent days 6/7 area.

[nick sussex]

The fat lady won't be singing tonight then

Lol! After that GFS horror show a big relief all round that the ECM refused to join the Scrooge Club. I'm off to dig around the US state forecasts, hopefully they've trashed the GFS operational run. The ECM at 168hrs okay but look at the low in the eastern USA it looks like its going to eject a shortwave, if that runs se then yippee , if not I'll be needing that trauma unit myself!

[IDO]

GEM back on board:

T240:

[tight isobar]

Out out 168 ecm...and neddles pointing southward injection nicely..and a keen eye to southern most Greenland!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

maybe this ECM run will be good, no posts from Gavin D after every update!

[Ian Brown]

maybe this ECM run will be good, no posts from Gavin D after every update!

 

There soon will be - the race was lost and its game over at T192 :

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112812/ECM1-192.GIF

[Snowman.]

ECM doesn't send the trigger low.

 

Slack NWN flow.

 

 

Better heights stay in canada main core of the PV resides to the scandi area.

 

Now if only we can get some WAA to greenland.

Edited November 28, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Panayiotis]

The COLD is in by 192hrs, dont really know what will happen after though....

Edited November 28, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Man With Beard]

Would love to be wrong but I feel it's about 60:40 against cold getting south next weekend. The whole set-up screams of wave after wave of little low pressure systems coming out of Canada, and in such scenarios they aren't all picked up until inside T144. The potential is there but I don't see enough opportunity for a let-up in the Atlantic train to enable heights to build north. Maybe we'll get lucky.

[MR EXTREMES]

t192 looks cold but I suspect longevity is not going to please most this really is knife edge stuff.

but some impressive cold to the nw north and ne and east of the directions would be a bonus.

[Skyraker]

Thanks

 

Its for the newbies mainly....

 

Look forward to it.!

 

Anyone have a copy of the 06z ens?

[Downpour]

Just logging on - GFS cannon fodder then?

[radiohead]

Less potent northerly on the 12Z ECM at T192 compared to the 0Z. Could develop something interesting though in the final frames?

 

[Frosty.]

Im hiding behind sofa ,i,ll wait till 7pm ,this chicken as teath 

Me too legritter, the suspense is incredible. I got the carlsberg ready though............

[Snowman.]

This was 0z 216.

 

12z 192 (not same date but still)

 

 

Canadian block withstanding the PV more could lead to something interesting down the line?

[tight isobar]

192 and the shunt eastward is on with the evermore thorn in the side...