Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Ali1977]

exciting model watching, however preparing for monstrous FI changes by the morning...maybe in a better way for coldies you never know....

[Allseasons-Si]

As the ECM was sniffing on a potential at 240

 

 

the gfs 18z at 240 also smells the coffee,i meen the scandi coffee

 

Edited November 29, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Purga]

Scandi High & slider @ 384.

 

They all seem to be getting to the same end product albeit by differeing routes.

 

I've never seen that before.

As none of it will verify I wouldn't worry - LOL!

[abruzzi spur]

 

 

 

 

& VIOLA

 

 

 

Steve, at least it's not the violins playing!

[Skyraker]

talking of 24-48 hour forecasting.

Whoever drew that 1000-500mb thickness 528DM line MID way between two fronts instead of close by one would have a serious problem explaining that to any instructor at the Met Office College!

Being specific, the area around 25w I think where the cold front becomes a warm front for a short length; the 528dm line crosses it into what is effectively a warm sector=really, explain that using the thickness equation please?

 

Haroomph.. this would never have been allowed if Queen Victoria was still alive.

[Snowman.]

Meanwhile...

 

[Gael_Force]

Its only the weather, and not a score card competition, do we have to have this combative male rutting with detached sentences and capital letters for emphasis? Model analysis is good - but can't it be restrained without machoism

 

Dearie me, these old eyes read that as masochism ....not much difference anyway when it comes to what we put ourselves through!

 

Remarkably, 1962 still seems to be replicated in the coming pattern - perhaps SM is on to something - agree, skip the French, too many strings being pulled already. cf viola - voila.

[SMU]

LOL- Del boy French.... !!

 

Sorrys peoples--

 

John its not second guessing the models - its forecasting by removing the model bias

 

S

[Yarmy]

An Easterly in mid-Dec? It's all strangely familiar...

[Ali1977]

As I said yesterday 1962 Dec, only slightly earlier..............In my Madden eyes anyway

[Ian Brown]

The GFS has defo gone to the pub tonight judging how FI looks to be shaping up

 

It's ludicrous, disregard.

[Purga]

"The road to hell is paved with phantom easterlies" beware!

[johnholmes]

LOL- Del boy French.... !!

 

Sorrys peoples--

 

John its not second guessing the models - its forecasting by removing the model bias

 

S

 

I believe you but many don't

[Captain Shortwave]

No change then really. Great ECM ens I must add. Well many days ago I did suggest that if the polar vortex transfers across the pole then we could get a window of opportunity to build heights over Scandinavia. Looks like it could still happen. Hope for more good output tomorrow

[SMU]

COLD

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn36017.png  6pm Maxima.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

An Easterly in mid-Dec? It's all strangely familiar...

Once bitten, twice shy?!

[Mucka]

A big straw clutching hat

 

images.jpg

 

as for the models,i would just like to comment on the 12z ECM 240 at face value(i know people have commented on this scenario)and also in FI,but it could be plausible IF it went right,here is my paint job if that 240 chart would come off

 

ECM1-240.GIF

 

we could fetch a easterly if this ridge pushes further NE

 

i await another 24-48hrs to see if there is a trend there.

 

 

Yes we would need low pressure to form over NW Europe otherwise we might just about get a slack Easterly flow into the SE and would have to wait a few days to see if we could get a Scandi high from there. We wouldn't pick up a proper Easterly flow as the ensemble chart Steve posted would for at least a few days IMO but I think he was just explaining the principal. The quick way to a Scandi high rather than the slow way which is to stack up heights from S/SW flow slowly orientating high pressure and eventually undercutting.

 

If GFS is wrong and it probably is and comes around to the ECM way of things in the next day or two then we will see that principal demonstrated more frequently within its ensembles and people will suddenly give it some credence as a genuine possibility, although it has been option and talked about by various members for some time. That is what Steve meant about people not seeing it or saying it was toppler rather than exclaiming he has a monopoly on model analysis. Also we will be able to project better which way UKMO is leaning regarding the strength of the ridge from tomorrow so we will have even more information on the likelihood of something like that occurring.

 

Funny enough GFS demonstrates the principle in deep FI, building an elongated ridge into Scandi and picking up an Easterly flow,

 

 

 

The reason it doesn't work out is because the low pressure is too far SE, or because the pattern is little too far East if you like but he principle is clearly demonstrated.

[legritter]

Just a few thoughts of mine looking at current charts data and looking into other forums in northern hemisphere ,and looking at current temp in northern latitudes .i think the outlook over n/west europe including the UK is heading for a very interesting time weatherwise and forecasting wise .any new posters ,people new to modell watching ,make sure you pop into the learning area ,and remember to ask questions if not sure about some of the terms used .in interesting times like now dont forget The Fax charts ,which you can learn about from many sources .and enjoy .

[Tamara]

Dearie me, these old eyes read that as masochism ....not much difference anyway when it comes to what we put ourselves through!

 

Remarkably, 1962 still seems to be replicated in the coming pattern - perhaps SM is on to something - agree, skip the French, too many strings being pulled already. cf viola - voila.

Edited - rare typo..I would like to think

Edited November 29, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[snowbob]

Once bitten, twice shy?!

remember it oh too well

[Mucka]

Its only the weather, and not a score card competition, do we have to have this combative male rutting with detached sentences and capital letters for emphasis? Model analysis is good - but can't it be restrained without masochism

Masochism? 

Surely you are not suggesting masochism and/or biatching are the sole domain of Men Tamara? 

You have to be a masochist to be a coldy living in England anyway  

Edited November 29, 2013 by Mucka

[Gael_Force]

Edited - rare typo..I would like to think

 

No, no, you were right first time - me reading it the wrongly .. was funny and daft on my part ...old fart syndrome.

[kumquat]

GFS much flatter,well the 18z is at any rate.

The main takeaway on both is the drawing of low height vortices towards Siberia. Propensity for higher heights to our North West. It's a good position to be in at 144 hrs down the line if either scenario pans out. It's looking pretty good imho.

[garbagebags]

Is there a model thread where people dont only talk about FI ? Seems the only thing people here look at. Might just as well head over to maddens page. Lets have some chat about the reasonable charts?

[Tamara]

Masochism? 

Surely you are not suggesting masochism and/or biatching are not the sole domain of Men Tamara? 

You have to be a masochist to be a coldy living in England anyway  

It was edited in jest ...and I have definitely used up my OT quota for the year

 

Its still a toppling ridge after all the evidence tonight. Its a case of make the most of it