Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[cooling climate]

Good support for a HLB over Alaska and stretching down the west coast of Canada going into week 2. But I remain very cautious about it's impacts for our part of the world. As the phrase goes, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Not going to get excited unless something appears towards the latter part of week 1 which might suggest something might actually verify.

Quite agree its just trends we are looking at at the moment with any change of fortune

still some post 8 days or more, but I for one like what I am seeing at the moment.

[Mucka]

Please can someone advise on what the GFS control run is? Does it verify etc.

 

 

It runs with the same starting data as the operational only it runs a slightly lower resolution (so potentially is less accurate though not necessarily)

 

People often look for the control to back the Operational to boost confidence in the operational outcome but mainly it should be used against perturbations within the ensembles to see if there is any confidence in probability of ouctome of particular solution (most of this only really matters when looking past 144h except in highly volatile situations where a small detail can make a large synoptic difference around the UK, such as  a dreaded shortwave developing around Iceland or SW Greenland killing off a potential HLB.)

[MR EXTREMES]

I dont buy into any northern blocking for sometime yet the mjo is still yet to move on and the strat profile is still yet to show some promise I think its all getting a little over hyped in here again the realistic out come is for a nw flow and residual vortex to stick around Greenland for awhile yet the pattern change or should I say the northern blocking is always stayed well in the depths of fi.

 

oh don't get me wrong I hope im wrong would be classic if we got cold in time for Christmas the best we can hope for at this moment in time is a nw flow and northern and western areas will fair well in this kind of setup with a very cold north alantic for the rest I expect areas of showers and rain bands but nothing above average is showing still so that's good thing.

Edited November 24, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[TSNWK]

It runs with the same starting data as the operational only it runs a slightly lower resolution (so potentially is less accurate though not necessarily) People often look for the control to back the Operational to boost confidence in the operational outcome but mainly it should be used against perturbations within the ensembles to see if there is any confidence in probability of ouctome of particular solution (most of this only really matters when looking past 144h except in highly volatile situations where a small detail can make a large synoptic difference around the UK, such as  a dreaded shortwave developing around Iceland or SW Greenland killing off a potential HLB.)

Thank you for taking the time to explain. I'm learning all the time

[MR EXTREMES]

and the ecm does not so far look promising although I must admit the only models id trust are the ukmo and jma.

 

but theres some serious cold into the north alantic and to the nw I mean serious cold.

get a north west flow most likely be better than an ne or east flow.

 

incredible upper air temps.

Edited November 24, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Summer Sun]

At t120 UKMO has the high furthest west, GFS has it furthest east with ECM in the middle

 

 

By t144 ECM is in agreement with UKMO by shifting the high east

 

 

So a 1 or 2day north to north westerly before the high returns

Edited November 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[cooling climate]

Waiting for t168 chart and we need to see the low over NW Canada run south.

If it does then a good run awaits if it moves east then back to the drawing board.

Edited November 24, 2013 by cooling climate

[Summer Sun]

The high continues to build at t168

 

[cooling climate]

T168 pretty good as long as the low continues moving south and does not phase

with the energy further east then high pressure should build in front and behind

the low. Awaits t192.

[TSNWK]

Waiting for t168 chart and we need to see the low over NW Canada run south.If it does then a good run awaits if it moves east then back to the drawing board.

And if it runs south east ? which is how it looked to me.

[MR EXTREMES]

you couldn't make the ecm up if you tried I bet its the right model aswell just to have a laugh at our cold loving expense lol

[Joe Levy]

Summer sun do you enjoy to constantly try n drown all cold lovers optimism and hope. Why don't you request a mild thread and post in there!

I am a cold lover and I don't feel my optimism is being drowned. The posts on this page by Summer Sun are purely observational! The model output tonight has plenty to cheer us up with by ourselves, without relying on others to fuel or ruin our optimism!

[Mucka]

and the ecm does not so far look promising although I must admit the only models id trust are the ukmo and jma.

 

but theres some serious cold into the north alantic and to the nw I mean serious cold.

get a north west flow most likely be better than an ne or east flow.

 

incredible upper air temps.

 

Don't forget a polar air mass gets massively modified as it crosses the Atlantic and very cold NW flow are infrequent and usually short lived anywhere from the N to E quadrant the air gets less modified,especially an easterly (when the continent is very cold) as the air crosses land rather than ocean.

That said a NW flow can be very good for NW England, Cheshire gap showers and all that...

Edited November 24, 2013 by Mucka

[MR EXTREMES]

but there is a difference from this morning ecm it don't seem to sink south yet!

 

very true mucka although this would be coming straight of the Greenland ice shelf so a little modified air would most likely help with heaver showers or percip

Edited November 24, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Captain Shortwave]

Heh left me hanging for flaming 36 hours but there is the deep Atlantic trough. The high should move north east, looking for that trough and the cold pool over the Med to have a get together.

Alas I was wrong

Better get the BBQ back out 

No ECM, we wanted a northerly from the pole, not a southerly from the Equator â€‹ 

Edited November 24, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mucka]

BOM loaded with potential at day 10 (are we chasing FI still?)

 

[MR EXTREMES]

if the ecm is your favoured model look away now its horrid henry strikes back not exciting.

 

but the alantic going into the freezer

Edited November 24, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Mucka]

but there is a difference from this morning ecm it don't seem to sink south yet!

 

very true mucka although this would be coming straight of the Greenland ice shelf so a little modified air would most likely help with heaver showers or percip

 

 

Yeah true, if only that was what ECM showed though. 

[MR EXTREMES]

the ecm has the core of high pressure a fair bit north and east on the t216 still waiting for the t240 to see how big the difference is.

 

its a fair bit different but I noticed low heights have eased a little from the eastern seaboard of the states and looks like pressure trying to build in behind.

 

although our high sinking se is not really ideal still something intresting could develop maybe or maybe not.....

Edited November 24, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Captain Shortwave]

Well westerly is where we would be heading from here, but with below average temperatures beyond day 10

[cooling climate]

Um quite an underwhelming op run from the ECM tonight. less amplified than the 0z

but not a complete disaster.

[Summer Sun]

t240 shows cold air approaching but until then its not all that cold, infact before it gets colder we'll have to potentially get through something milder, how mild it gets at the surface though is anyone's guess at this stage

 

 

 

t240 is loaded with potential for cold weather

 

Edited November 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Skyraker]

The ECM 240 chart could just be the start of something epic.

 

Edited November 24, 2013 by Skyraker

[Tim Bland]

The ECM 240 chart could just be the start of something epic.

Indeed ; once that pattern moves East a few days later we could be in business! Edited November 24, 2013 by Tim Bland

[phil nw.]

No real change in today's runs really imo.

 

Signs of minor wave breaking in the later frames still over the Alaskan side but not enough to show significant disruption to the vortex for us to get any real benefit.

The main core of the pv is still stretched across the pole between Greenland and Russia for the time being which limits any cold chances to brief north westerly topplers over the top of the limpet High in the E.Atlantic.

The first one of these likely for the end of the week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013112412/UN120-21.GIF?24-18

 

The next few days continue to look quiet,mainly dry and rather cloudy with some patchy frost where  there are any clearances.

Edited November 24, 2013 by phil nw.