Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[MPG]

Yes it's a very poor set-up going forward with both the GFS and ECM hinting later on at pressure rising over Europe as the PV deepens to the NW.

Look at the date on the chart Ian Brown

[The Northern Ramper]

Yes it's a very poor set-up going forward with both the GFS and ECM hinting later on at pressure rising over Europe as the PV deepens to the NW.

Yes going forward that is a very depressing position to be in, especially if you dislike 1 in 50 year winters.

[MPG]

Hi draztik...to be honest I wish I could find something +ive for the development of a cold pattern, whether that be within the ops, ensembles or even the teleconnctions.  However I can't, in fact all I can currently see is a slowing sinking HP dominated pattern, a slowly deepening PV and a resultant slow transition to milder, more unsettled conditions from the north.  You may see things differently, as may others, but no amount of wishful thinking, positive vibes or glass half full talk will change the overall picture...at least as I see it.

 

BTW, I seem to remember you singing from very much the same hymnsheet as me back in the summer, as several of your PM's back then atest.

 

 

I for one am quite encouraged tonight by what the models are showing over the northern

hemisphere in the extended output although its hard to see where the control run gets  

that amount of amplitude from.

I would agree with crew cold though and say big changes may well be on the way for

December and the first signs of these are now starting to show up in the model outputs.

 

Its no wonder that some people are afraid to post in here or find it confusing...........these two posts are poles apart regarding the current output!

[Panayiotis]

Well lets see what the 18z has in store hopefully it has had a good night down the pub!

[Summer Sun]

Out to t84 and its as you were from GFS

 

[cyclonic happiness]

It's not very often we get a high pressure sitting directly over us nowadays, I always remember the best cold spells follow anti-cyclonic gloom.

I'm optimistic of a good cold spell in early December :-)

[Team Jo]

It would be really handy if you could cite your reasoning when calling a particular model and your subsequent interpretations of it.....

Would be great to see the 'why' behind the explanation.

[Summer Sun]

GFS staying consistent not following UKMO and ECM once more, it prefers to keep the high over the UK

 

Edited November 23, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Catacol]

I for one am quite encouraged tonight by what the models are showing over the northern

hemisphere in the extended output although its hard to see where the control run gets  

that amount of amplitude from.

I would agree with crew cold though and say big changes may well be on the way for

December and the first signs of these are now starting to show up in the model outputs.

 

You are nothing if not consistent... even though I have asked twice for the specifics of your forecast and what methods you base them on without response. I hope you are right... but I fear for December you may be setting yourself up for a fall. I see no teleconnections, charts or strat evidence for a move to a bitter December. IB gets stick (rightly so) for posting an overly zonal interpretation of charts from time to time but I think this has to work both ways. 

 

What are you basing your call of a bitter December on?

 

EDIT: I have found your August forecast. Interesting... but it seems based a lot on ozone levels and above average ozone causing more warming in the strat. Current ozone levels across most of the NH are below normal...

 

Edited November 23, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[Jason T]

You are nothing if not consistent... even though I have asked twice for the specifics of your forecast and what methods you base them on without response. I hope you are right... but I fear for December you may be setting yourself up for a fall. I see no teleconnections, charts or strat evidence for a move to a bitter December. IB gets stick (rightly so) for posting an overly zonal interpretation of charts from time to time but I think this has to work both ways. 

 

What are you basing your call of a bitter December on?

 

EDIT: I have found your August forecast. Interesting... but it seems based a lot on ozone levels and above average ozone causing more warming in the strat. Current ozone levels across most of the NH are below normal...

 

 

couple of things to watch

 

http://www.solarham.net/

 

http://www.swpc.noaa...s_timeline.html

 

solar activity has finally started to go quiet again and hope it stays that way

 

plus nao looks to go negative as we go into december

 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/nao.html

 

 

 Have noticed also that the stratosphere temp is starting rapid cooling, Ironically the pattern is almost similar to last years.

 

 

In general the ozone is contained within the stratosphere, The stratosphere heats up from the level of UV from the Sun etc, As  solar activity is slowing down so this will affect the temp within the stratosphere ie rapid cooling.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Typically zonal? Typical westerly burst?

 

Nope

 

[Tamara]

I do feel some people in the Strat thread look down on this thread. We are only seeing the models...The 10-14 day outlook shows mlb and possible height rises....

 

These are against certain Strat posters +NAO low heights for early to mid December....

 

I do think we get to down on ourselves from the Strat thread when they say +NAO, AO, No strat warming etc............

 

Height mlb are expected early December and could lead to longer cold spells

 

 

Not sure what this post is supposed to mean  - there is no hierarchy or gospel of truth. Anyone can post in the stratosphere thread, as anywhere else, if they have a view and it is constructive, or even just to ask a question. As one who is hardly a tecchie expert myself I wouldn't hesitate to ask a question....

 

There are some bizarre posts today - I think that simply balancing expectations is getting confused with pessimism. That chart anomaly suggests much what we have atm - it gives no clue as to how much amplification of the pattern there may be to deliver colder weather.

 

Its quite obviously unpopular judging from this post, and others on here atm, to suggest that there might not be as much amplification in the pattern as everyone hopes for, but as one who would love to be proved wrong, in my humble opinion I think that reality exceeds hope for the time being.

 

Anyone is free to disagree, I'm hardly claiming to a prophet   - it is only the weather afterall and life does exist beyond snowflakes, however much I love them like others

 

Winter hasn't started yet - how is that for optimism?

Edited November 23, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[swfc]

Very interesting nh atm .Blocking a plenty and the confusion in the mo continues

[stewfox]

Having just watched the forecast on Irish TV it grieves me to say it but I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if we didn't have to wait again until next Spring to get anything substantial in terms of cold.

 

I just hope JH is out tonight 

 

Where is the model support ,/ rationale to make such an assumption on 23rd November ??

 

Apart from a small warm blip next week, models are showing very much 'average conditions' out to FI which is around T144/T168

Edited November 23, 2013 by stewfox

[bobbydog]

now, i think this is an unusual chart to see. it has to be a 'big hit' on the stratosphere, somewhere down the line.

 

[Mucka]

Wasn't referring to you Mucka or anyone RE the straw clutching. Just putting it out there before anyone strikes!

okay it was just that you quoted my post. 

[bradymk]

Keep an eye on that pacific ridge in future runs, Lots of GEFS 12z members were showing this as a potential important feature if you cold as we go into December.

[bluearmy]

To be fair, it probably isnt often too frigid in cork!

Ecm extended show some of the wetter runs dropping out. Inconclusive re the length of any colder spell at the end of the run but a positive for coldies that the trend stopped after one run.

[Mucka]

Well lets see what the 18z has in store hopefully it has had a good night down the pub!

 

I think it has gone Tea Total.

Thankfully though it is pretty much out on its own and even the mean ensemble charts for the mid range will probably have the pattern further West than the Op.

SM has slated GFS recently a little unfairly in my view but I think it really has been on one today and my gut tells me the Op runs will look quite different come Monday  

 

Edit:

 

As expected GFS short ensembles (pressure central England) show how the Op is pretty much out on its own with the perpetual limpet high.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=255&y=87&run=18&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

Edited November 23, 2013 by Mucka

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

With that high right over us, some places may well be struggling to make it above say 1-2c, so I do not know where people are getting the idea of mild zonal weather from. Also if we see a movement of around say 500 miles to the North of that high, we could well pull in a keen chilly Easterly. Whose to say that won't trend within this 7 days coming? 

[Joe Levy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=175 The ens for Exeter. Again, a very large spread, but interestingly, a cluster of about 5 very cold runs and another couple of quite cold runs, especially bearing in mind that this is for a South-Western location.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=245&y=3 For Northern England this is even more marked. Nothing specific should be inferred from this, as it is only one set of ens, but it is good reason for coldies not to give up hope and further reason for us to continue to scrutinise the models carefully as they interpret changing patterns and data.

[Timmytour]

 

Winter hasn't started yet - how is that for optimism?

 

Yeah but in less than a months time the days start getting longer and then our chances of a cold blast start receding rapidly as the sun warms us up!!!! :-)

Damn......put tongue so far into my cheek I'm struggling to get it back!

Edited November 24, 2013 by Timmytour

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=175 The ens for Exeter. Again, a very large spread, but interestingly, a cluster of about 5 very cold runs and another couple of quite cold runs, especially bearing in mind that this is for a South-Western location.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=245&y=3 For Northern England this is even more marked. Nothing specific should be inferred from this, as it is only one set of ens, but it is good reason for coldies not to give up hope and further reason for us to continue to scrutinise the models carefully as they interpret changing patterns and data.

 

5/6 runs develop a true Greenland high around the 240-300 hr range, most of them with a shattered vortex which may account for the cluster you describe.

Edited November 24, 2013 by CreweCold

[Panayiotis]

The ensembles today have been keen to bring in colder members later on in the run....

[TSNWK]

00:00 gfs: ummmm not too sure actually.

Brings back the northerly for the back end of next weekend early part of Dec, but then topples the high back over the uk and beyond into Europe..

However on the northern hemispehere plots, the PV is smashed to pieces following the northerlÅ·, so I guess although this time the high toppled there is I guess the opening for something a little more interesting for coldies 1st week December.