Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Tonight's ECM 12z op run is not as dire as this morning, the jet becomes aligned more towards wnw / ese with rather cold incursions from the northwest (polar maritime) and the run ends with colder air heading towards the uk, not as good as the gem but much better than the gfs.

Anything has to be better than the GFS 12Z Karl.

The GFS ensembles scream one word,zonal.

[ChartViewer]

I do feel some people in the Strat thread look down on this thread. We are only seeing the models...The 10-14 day outlook shows mlb and possible height rises....

 

These are against certain Strat posters +NAO low heights for early to mid December....

 

I do think we get to down on ourselves from the Strat thread when they say +NAO, AO, No strat warming etc............

 

Height mlb are expected early December and could lead to longer cold spells

 

 

[cooling climate]

I for one am quite encouraged tonight by what the models are showing over the northern

hemisphere in the extended output although its hard to see where the control run gets  

that amount of amplitude from.

I would agree with crew cold though and say big changes may well be on the way for

December and the first signs of these are now starting to show up in the model outputs.

[bluearmy]

Anything has to be better than the GFS 12Z Karl.The GFS ensembles scream one word,zonal.

Thing is HD, the interest lies beyond T300 and we can't see if the general mobility continues beyond T384. Do the cold members revert back to zonal. Do the members which convincingly split the p/v rebuild it apace? The ECM extended from earlier were hugely spread in two weeks time. The cold cluster surviving but an increasingly precipitous set increasing in number. The 12z are awaited to see if that trend continues

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I for one am quite encouraged tonight by what the models are showing over the northern

hemisphere in the extended output although its hard to see where the control run gets  

that amount of amplitude from.

I would agree with crew cold though and say big changes may well be on the way for

December and the first signs of these are now starting to show up in the model outputs.

Well,i guess thats what forums are all about,opinions and counter opinions.

I for one hope you and CC and others are totally correct with your thoughts.

All i can see is a strong PV,low heights to the North,and a strong belt of HP to our south across Southern Europe.

The strong temp gradient  out in the Atlantic is just spawning low after low.

Thing is HD, the interest lies beyond T300 and we can't see if the general mobility continues beyond T384. Do the cold members revert back to zonal. Do the members which convincingly split the p/v rebuild it apace?The ECM extended from earlier were hugely spread in two weeks time. The cold cluster surviving but an increasingly precipitous set increasing in number. The 12z are awaited to see if that trend continues

Absolutely Nickl,the point is the starting point of hope has to start somewhere,300hrs plus isnt exactly inspiring!

[Dave Kightley]

The models have that 2011/2012 feel to them at the moment with a N.Wly very possible at times.. I'm sure this time in 2011 had a pattern not far off but far off at the same time, with high pressure to the w/s.w for long periods. Current reaction to the model output of late..

 

I think 2011 had cool zonality at this point, so totally different but a more of a reaction to the current model output with a N.W the best possible outcome at this present time. The ecm 12z at 240 shows to me the vortex making  a slight adjustment towards the North pole. 

Edited November 23, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Frosty.]

Hey coldies we have something to cheer about tonight, whilst the Gfs 12z op run was about as good as the england cricket team, the GEFS 12z control run turns into a stunner, very December 2010 like, the initial blast is a near miss but there is the mother of all reloads which completely changes the uk pattern to very wintry with lots and lots of snow, I didn't think I was going to use the words ice days today but here it is..... a carlsberg special.

 

 

[bobbydog]

oh dear...

strong vortex, low pressure to our north, High pressure centred right over us, stretching right across europe...

 

 

 

oh dear.......

[Cheshire Freeze]

oh dear...

strong vortex, low pressure to our north, High pressure centred right over us, stretching right across europe...

 

 

 

oh dear.......

 

Indeed.....the charts recently have been very reminiscent of this time in 1962 and just goes to show why any despondency is very very premature.

[Yarmy]

oh dear...

strong vortex, low pressure to our north, High pressure centred right over us, stretching right across europe...

 

 

 

oh dear.......

Yes, I've been posting a few 62 charts from Nov/Dec in the Winter thread with much worse synoptics than we currently have. The point is not that anything like 62/63 will happen (1 in a 100 chance?), but that you can't really tell what will happen 2 weeks down the line.

However, if there's still no improvement come the last third of Dec I'm off to Greenland with Mrs Yarmy's hairdryer to get some manual WAA going.

[tight isobar]

Crew cold this is now an accepts. And cannot be ignored..the compare via compare " are quite sit up and take note. Nobody can deny what shows before them....(quite exiting). !!

[tight isobar]

Regards "62/63...

[nick sussex]

Jeez whats going on in here? Do I need to bring forward my special offer on Prozac? Theres dire mild zonality and then theres tonights outputs which are nothing of the sort.  So its not great but the NH pattern is nothing like as bad as some we could see. Does any output show mild zonal dross with PV limpeted to the north within 168hrs, indeed even within 240hrs theres still no sign of this.

 

The GFS which seems to be seen tonight as Satans love child shows the main chunk of PV in Siberia not Greenland at T240hrs, theres a reason most NWP only goes out to 240hrs max operationally. If people are getting stressed by the GFS past that point then its going to be a very long winter. My advice chill out, lets wait and see what happens re the ridge in the Pacific.

Edited November 23, 2013 by nick sussex

[Team Jo]

Just wanted to point out that Prozac etc takes a few weeks to work, so I'd recommend any woe or elation styled comments be popped in the ramp thread......

[legritter]

I,ll take a carlsberg special ,ECM last two frames again giving us a tease .but things are surely stuck in a bit of a rut ,patience is certainly going to be needed but we all know things could start to flip .keeping things Model related there was some talk on a new system possibly putting GFS into retirement ,i think possibly called FIM ,i do hope its not too good perhaps good As far as 8/10 days  but beyond that its nice to have a bit of Guessing left in our hobby .So at this moment in time there is the possibility that in the far outlook we could see a more mobile pattern set up ,big straw i know but nothing set in stone ,PNAO /NNAO ETC ETC ,Mother nature as got plenty of tricks twists and turns ,and its brass monkey weather again tonight ,have faith .

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble supports a north westerly at first before high pressure moves east wards

 

 

-5 850's always stay north of the UK

 

[Summer Sun]

Latest on the 12z models from Gibby

 

All models show little change tonight with High pressure remaining in control of the weather over the UK with just variations on cloud amounts day to day which also bears an influence over how much frost and fog is allowed to form overnight. In addition the weather becomes a little more breezy with more cloud streaming SE across the UK with even a little rain for a time across the North and East.

 

GFS tonight shows High pressure never far away from the South of the UK with day to day variations on the amounts of cloud and wind across the UK. The North remains favoured for what there is of rainfall over the period with very little reaching the SW.

 

UKMO closes it's run with High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic with winds blowing down from the NW, quite lightly overall but a little stronger over far Northern and eastern areas where it may feel rather cold at times in the NW flow.

 

GEM tonight shows a similar pattern to the other models with High Pressure close to Southern Britain maintaining largely dry and benign conditions with winds predominating from a NW direction, light in the South and moderate further North. Frost and fog looks quite limited due to cloud cover.

 

NAVGEM shows High pressure over Biscay this time next week with a relatively mild and cloudy Westerly flow over the UK with Northern areas in particular at risk of some rain.

 

ECM towards the end of its run shows High pressure relaxing South over France as a trough of Low pressure moves in towards the West with freshening SW winds and rain moving East over Britain on Day 10.

 

The GFS Ensembles show the operational as a warm outlier tonight through it's second half. There is a huge range between the members with some rain highlighted to develop over Northern areas especially later.

 

The Jet Stream tonight shows an arching flow around areas well North of the UK and down into Europe as High pressure near the UK  keeps in control, especially over Southern Britain.

 

In Summary tonight I can see little scope for anything very wintry to develop from any charts I have seen tonight. So with High pressure close by, often to the SW the weather is left to alternate between cold and fresh days following mist and fog or milder cloudy weather with temperatures close to average. Currently I feel the latter has more chance of gaining the upper hand over UK weather for some considerable time to come.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[Frosty.]

I see cold potential developing out of the latest Ecm 12z ensemble mean, as with the 12z op, the jet alignment is tilting towards nw / se which would encourage those much lower heights to the northwest to head our way along with arctic sourced air, those lowering heights could be enough to force the atlantic anticyclone into a more favourable position to enable a cold blast for the uk. Things are not as bad as I originally thought after that 12z Gfs op run, the gem still looks good for a cold shot early next month and I still think the models are struggling to nail where the high will end up.

Edited November 23, 2013 by Frosty.

[bobbydog]

Jeez whats going on in here? Do I need to bring forward my special offer on Prozac? Theres dire mild zonality and then theres tonights outputs which are nothing of the sort.  So its not great but the NH pattern is nothing like as bad as some we could see. Does any output show mild zonal dross with PV limpeted to the north within 168hrs, indeed even within 240hrs theres still no sign of this.

 

The GFS which seems to be seen tonight as Satans love child shows the main chunk of PV in Siberia not Greenland at T240hrs, theres a reason most NWP only goes out to 240hrs max operationally. If people are getting stressed by the GFS past that point then its going to be a very long winter. My advice chill out, lets wait and see what happens re the ridge in the Pacific.

 

indeed nick.... hence my 'prozac' (it doesn't cure the problem but it feels great at the time) chart from '62. imagine the despondency from charts like that if netweather was around in 1962!!

little would we know what was to come....

[Mucka]

We're at the 23rd November and we're hardly seeing classic N Atlantic zonality. There's much to be satisfied with at present even if the general pattern in our locale is uninspiring at present. I think there is far too much unjust pessimism in here at the moment. I'm not straw clutching or trying to hopecast in the slightest......if you remember, December last year we had stellar charts being churned out but I never bought in to the whole evolution. Seems to be the opposite unfolding this year!

There was no pessimism in my post and I didn't suggest you were straw clutching?

I just said you were playing the long game while I am being wishful for something turning up in around 8 days. 

If anything I am probably being overly optimistic.

[bluearmy]

naefs 12z continus the theme of scandi trough becoming the main player as the block retrogresses somewhat. this allows for the colder incursion towards the end of the first week dec. however, the quesiton i have asked for a while - 'is this colder incursion just a toppler type scenario or will it sustain'?  the signs on naefs 12z are that the siberian p/v will  build back west towards canada in two weeks time and when we see this transfer of low heights across the pole, the atlantic jet invariably cranks up.  i would love to be wrong but it looks to me to be a short lived colder spell (if it verifies) with a general return of westerly flow thereafter (north of or south of currently unsure)

[Ian Brown]

oh dear...

strong vortex, low pressure to our north, High pressure centred right over us, stretching right across europe...

 

 

 

oh dear.......

 

Yes it's a very poor set-up going forward with both the GFS and ECM hinting later on at pressure rising over Europe as the PV deepens to the NW.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean also shows the chance of a cold blast by early next month, hopefully things will look better tomorrow, reasons to be optimistic tonight.

[Cheshire Freeze]

There was no pessimism in my post and I didn't suggest you were straw clutching?

I just said you were playing the long game while I am being wishful for something turning up in around 8 days. 

If anything I am probably being overly optimistic.

 

Wasn't referring to you Mucka or anyone RE the straw clutching. Just putting it out there before anyone strikes!

[MPG]

Hi draztik...to be honest I wish I could find something +ive for the development of a cold pattern, whether that be within the ops, ensembles or even the teleconnctions.  However I can't, in fact all I can currently see is a slowing sinking HP dominated pattern, a slowly deepening PV and a resultant slow transition to milder, more unsettled conditions from the north.  You may see things differently, as may others, but no amount of wishful thinking, positive vibes or glass half full talk will change the overall picture...at least as I see it.

 

BTW, I seem to remember you singing from very much the same hymnsheet as me back in the summer, as several of your PM's back then atest.

 

Shed please post some charts to show a deepening PV? Taking the GFS 12z which you prefer it shows it moving to Siberia, and in FI its in bits. If the PV is setting up shop over Greenland, fair enough but its not.

 

Please can you post some charts showing this transition to mild weather? GFS 12z shows high pressure with fog and frost. My temp didn't get above 5 degree today.

 

The longer term models are going for a scandi highs and Greenland highs after that, so not sure how you can say 'I wish I could find something'?

 

Currently no amount of wishfull thinking, positive vibes or glass half full talk will change the overall foggy, frosty start to winter - cold not mild.

 

There is a development of a cold pattern, its currently dropping into Germany etc, if the high was more westerward (which granted it isn't) we would have cold shot number 2 of winter. The UKMET and ECM have just come out definitely showing signs of potential so I have no idea how you are writing off any cold. Remember it is winter....oh sorry its still autumn.

Edited November 23, 2013 by MPG