Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Ali1977]

Looking at the GFS ens out to T240 it looks like the 5/6 Dec is when we may see change to some colder/ wintry weather. Going on the latest charts that is.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

then the ukmo delivers a reload nw at t144

Not on the 12z ukmo im looking at?

[Joe Levy]

Quite a nice looking ensemble mean for t240

[Cloud 10]

T850 charts now available on Meteociel for the whole UKMO run.

 

Lets start with this one for Saturday coming. 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM looks solid at day 10

Matches the GFS ens pretty well

Edited November 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Joe Levy]

Just thought I'd capture this moment - the ensemble mean takes the -4 line down to the Bristol Channel! So this set is potentially even colder than the 6z. Exciting to watch, but still very deep in FI

[Mucka]

Fun chart of the day; PV obliterated and us in mild S/SW flow 

 

[Joe Levy]

Fun chart of the day; PV obliterated and us in mild S/SW flow 

 

Otherwise known as sod's law...

[Mucka]

Just thought I'd capture this moment - the ensemble mean takes the -4 line down to the Bristol Channel! So this set is potentially even colder than the 6z. Exciting to watch, but still very deep in FI

 

Nice, we are trending the right way but still nothing sustained really showing up although GFS ensembles really do struggle with blocking patterns. Things will get really interesting as we move through the week and any potential blocking comes into high res proper. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Realistically we will probably be looking for a northerly toppler in the end, though I bet this would verify given I am moving away from the coast in a few days 

Been a long time since we had a proper beast of a northerly, probably the best scenario we could get with a chunk of Polar vortex going close to the UK

Edited November 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Fun chart of the day; PV obliterated and us in mild S/SW flow 

 

 

Won't be mild that! not in the south anyway

[Joe Levy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=188&y=178 Another cold set here for Exeter, even colder than the 6z at times. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=238&y=2 Once again the pattern is even more marked in the North. One of the coldest sets I've seen this season so far.

[Summer Sun]

Quite a big difference between UKMO and GFS for the 850's at t120

 

GFS

 

 

UKMO

 

[Frosty.]

This is more like it from the latest Gfs 12z op run, the 6z brought a good blast of cold zonality but the 12z has cold zonal turning arctic with snow likely just about anywhere at different times, frosty nights and ice days, even a snowy breakdown at the end of the run. In the nearer timeframe, it's just like the 6z with a slightly milder spell spanning midweek with atlantic air spilling around the top of the atlantic high which briefly slips further south in the next few days with temps recovering to around 10 celsius but it doesn't last, much colder for friday due to a low diving southeast from iceland and then tracking just to the north of scotland as it heads towards scandinavia, so friday would be cold and windy with temps back down to the 3-7 c range with showers turning wintry on hills followed by a widespread frost which brings a cold crisp and frosty start to the weekend but then a similar thing happens to midweek with the atlantic high enabling atlantic air around the top but actually there would be residual surface cold so temps closer to 7 celsius. This is the part I like now, significantly lowering heights to the northwest swinging southeast towards the uk with progressively colder air digging south and turning the precipitation more wintry, not only on hills either, some areas would get a covering of snow, FI is superb, strong greenland high with ridge building south cutting off the atlantic, scandi trough in place = SNOW / ICE & FROST.........yes please 

[Ian Brown]

then the ukmo delivers a reload nw at t144

 

No it doesn't ?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

then the ukmo delivers a reload nw at t144

 

Not over us though, missing miles to the East, that 144 chart for UK looks mild for whole UK

[nick sussex]

Great to see Meteociel has the 850's for the UKMO upto 144hrs, a big thank you to Sylvain for this.

 

In terms of tonights models so far a small step forward in the search for something a little more wintry but any interest still remains well past 168hrs, nothing concrete yet but at least we're seeing a bit more amplification upstream.

[bluearmy]

No it doesn't ?

it does in copenhagen !!!

well the ukmo has data missing 0 to t36 so that's a no go.

no it doest - the charts just arent available for us to see. they still exist. the data is missing for meteociel to generate the charts !!!

Edited November 25, 2013 by bluearmy

[cooling climate]

The charts we are seeing from the GFS 12z run with a much more amplified and meridonal

pattern is due to the low which travels south,southeast down the western side of America

instead of heading east across north America  and flattening the pattern.

This allowes  pressure to rise in front of it as I may have mentioned a couple of times in my last

few posts.

At t192 on the GFS run  we are roughly where the ECM was yesterday morning with what I

thought was a very good chart. Hopefully the ECM will join in the party tonight.

 

P.S. I see the ensembles are in pretty good agreement for a cold snap(possibly spell to develope).

Edited November 25, 2013 by cooling climate

[Summer Sun]

All models are in agreement now North westerly on Friday before the high edges east again over the weekend as Autumn ends and winter begins

 

December 3rd shows the next potential north westerly

 

Edited November 25, 2013 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

As indicated, the GFS ens trending for below average conditions, esp so during days 10-15

temp anomaly gefs 12z

Edited November 25, 2013 by draztik

[Cloud 10]

Great to see Meteociel has the 850's for the UKMO upto 144hrs, a big thank you to Sylvain for this.

 

In terms of tonights models so far a small step forward in the search for something a little more wintry but any interest still remains well past 168hrs, nothing concrete yet but at least we're seeing a bit more amplification upstream.

 

If we behave ourselves they might even release the mythical 168 hrs chart some day. 

[Summer Sun]

Latest 8 day temperature outlook from GFS shows the north of the country seeing temperatures slightly above average, the far south west also recovers

 

Temperature anomaly

 

 

Expected temperatures

 

[Matty M]

Interesting ECMWF at 216hrs but again in the far reaches and we have seen such interesting things before.

[Summer Sun]

A more unsettled end to ECM tonight