Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[john mac]

Slightly better GFS12z this afternoon, You can see at t82 the low pushing further south down the east coast. also the high seems a bit further west on this run.

[Mucka]

My Geography isn't the best but GFS has developed a shortwave on the "Aleutian?" ridge which first appeared on the 06z - it has continued to develop it on the 12z and it is now a significant feature though I'm unsure what affect this will have.

 

 

It has not yet appeared on the  MetO or ECM output but maybe worth keeping an eye and finding out what consequences it may have on the downstream pattern.

 

comparison anomaly chart with the 00z

 

 

Edited November 26, 2013 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

A very different GFS beyond 144

[Cheshire Freeze]

A very different GFS beyond 144

 

Yes and one that LOOKS like it's providing a clearer pathway to heights lowering across Europe with the HP being sucked west.

[Harsh Climate]

I think most people would bank that, a definate northerly coming.

 

 

 

[TonyH]

I think most people would bank that, a definate northerly coming.

 

 

 

Looks like a WNW to me

[Matty M]

Much flatter pattern presented here, with less height rises to our north and over the crucial Greenland plateau.

Just one run though.

[john mac]

Much flatter pattern presented here, with less height rises to our north and over the crucial Greenland plateau.Just one run though.

Tbh matt i think its probably better in the long run, we need to get rid of the high over the uk to be able for things to progress.

[swfc]

would seem on the 12z the pv is digging its heels in plus the nh charts not looking as split ete.looks like a quick northerly then back to a mlb imo

[Yarmy]

Tbh matt i think its probably better in the long run, we need to get rid of the high over the uk to be able for things to progress.

 

Well we get another one back at T288:

 

 

Rinse and repeat

 

Edit: This run is nothing like the previous though from quite early on. The PV relocates to Canada in almost its entirety instead of Siberia.

Edited November 26, 2013 by Yarmy

[Snowman.]

Well we get another one back at T288:

 

 

Rinse and repeat

 

Edit: This run is nothing like the previous though from quite early on. The PV relocates to Canada in almost its entirety instead of Siberia.

GFS could just be too progressive with the pressure system exiting Canada at 192+ or its leaving too much in there.

 

That chart will look completely different by the time that date comes as something is bound to pop which could aid us or screw us.

Wasn't a few in here ringing a bell about scandi heights?

 

Latest CFS pulling the same string.

 

 

 

More Icelandic tbh

Edited November 26, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Yarmy]

GFS could just be too progressive with the pressure system exiting Canada at 192+ or its leaving too much in there.

 

That chart will look completely different by the time that date comes as something is bound to pop which could aid us or screw us.

Wasn't a few in here ringing a bell about scandi heights?

 

Latest CFS pulling the same string.

 

 

 

 

More Icelandic tbh

 

I'd basically sell a kidney for that. Just goes to show what you can get even with a powerful PV. It would be marginal at T48 though, let alone T504.

[Snowman.]

I'd basically sell a kidney for that. Just goes to show what you can get even with a powerful PV. It would be marginal at T48 though, let alone T504.

The 850s are actually decent.

 

CFS is continuing on keeping December below average with high pressure never far away.

[snowmadchrisuk]

A little interest in FI , as we get a direct Northerly straight from the Arctic , purely powered by the PV , but with nothing to the West to hold the pattern it doesn't last long ... Still another possibility of squeezing some early winter cold . 

[Joe Levy]

The 850s are actually decent.

 

CFS is continuing on keeping December below average with high pressure never far away.

They are more than decent! They're pretty exceptionally low uppers at times and on that run it stays cold from about the 14th through to the 26th!

[Cloud 10]

The 12z GEM cranks pressure up to 1070 mb over Greenland. 

 

[Joe Levy]

Another lovely ensemble mean for the 12z gefs at t240, with the -4 line reaching the south coast

[weatherguy]

The 12z GEM cranks pressure up to 1070 mb over Greenland. 

 

gemnh-0-222.png

 

Is that not just a surface high, mind? 

[Cloud 10]

Is that not just a surface high, mind? 

 

It is,but i'd take it!

[Yarmy]

Is that not just a surface high, mind? 

 

Yes, but move the whole pattern a smidgen East. (How's that for a straw clutch.)

[Summer Sun]

UKMO remains unchanged Friday unsettled becoming more settled from Saturday

 

[Joe Levy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=189&y=179 (South-West England)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=236&y=3 (Northern England)

The 12z GEFS set is out and is quite a lot colder than the 6z, with more runs going for a cold northerly some time from the 3rd/4th/5th for a few days from there. The greatest disagreement comes after then, as some runs bring back a more mobile flow, whilst others keep the northerly or a colder flow for a little longer.

[IDO]

It is clear now that the coming amplification will bring severe cold to our latitude somewhere in the NH. Earlier runs have been favouring the Pacific and Atlantic ridges giving a cross polar flow. The 12z from GFS goes in another direction:

Pacific High and Siberian High meeting. The troughing and the very cold weather moves into Canada and N America, more so than before; 2m temps at T384:

The UK basking in 12c with -32c in Pacific NW!

-50c windchill in parts of Canada (06z):

Thats a brutal early winter cold spell (looks to have legs), and its apparent we are again on the wrong side of the block (on this run). Though if this Pacific Ridge is the background driver for the coming Winter, I see further reloads and maybe better luck in the future.

The mean for the PV on this run moves from Siberia to Greenland/NW Atlantic, so no surprise there is a lack of HLB out to D15:

Not a great end to FI.

Anyway, still many runs to come for this D10 pattern, so we will probably see further possible solutions; though it has to be said, the last four GFS runs for our region, all say no to the very cold, and also no to any longevity.

[MR EXTREMES]

the cfs models is a pile of rubbish if you ask me its been going for Greenland block nearly all year absolutely needs throwing in the cat litter tray.

but yet another pretty typical set of model outputs and by god that pv is really tough this year but the states are getting the best of it all so far.

 

the ecm is even more of a worry because any kind of heights building nw north or even northeast looks likely to be destroyed by all the low pressures blasting out of the states and from the north although must be noted nothing above average showing.

 

and excellent post im dreaming of.

Edited November 26, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[cooling climate]

Quite happy with the model output so far this evening and with a possible

northerly type flow still out in the 10 day range then of course there is

likely to be ebbs and flows as to how potent or amplified the pattern will

become.

Fingers crossed for a good ECM operational tonight.