Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Joe Levy]

No comments on the gfs so far tells you all you need to know 

 

After a brief North westerly it is back to square one http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112618/gfsnh-0-144.png?18

Actually the key period of cold weather we are all looking for hasn't yet arrived. Currently the pattern is a bit further east, but still on track to provide a northerly. Never assume that silence is a bad thing!

[bradymk]

No comments on the gfs so far tells you all you need to know 

 

After a brief North westerly it is back to square one http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112618/gfsnh-0-144.png?18

No comments probably because not much change expected yet in the run. However upstream looks much better on 18z. Heights building to the W of Greenland.

[Ali1977]

Seems to be some much better heights heading towards west Greenland. Not sure what that will mean further on...

[Weathizard]

I like the look of this at 180... Looks rather more amplified & With the vortex where it appears to be moving too we will never be far from a cold outbreak, apologies for no charts as I'm on the mobile site.

[Frosty.]

In the great scheme of things, individual op runs won't decide whether we have a cold blast during December, at times like these it's best to follow what the gefs / ecm mean plus the met office updates as mogreps plays a much bigger role than the Gfs 18z. :-)

Edited November 26, 2013 by Frosty.

[bradymk]

For members who aren't really seeing the difference with this run, view it in northern hemisphere rather than just europe as then you will be able to see the changes upstream and W of Greenland

 

 

In the great scheme of things, individual op runs won't decide whether we have a cold blast during December, at times like these it's best to follow the met office updates as mogreps plays a much bigger role than the Gfs 18z. :-)

 

Good point Frosty, if everyone didn't follow each op run things would be a bit calmer in here at times. But nothing like a good pub run!

Edited November 26, 2013 by bradythemole

[Joe Levy]

I like the look of this at 180... Looks rather more amplified & With the vortex where it appears to be moving too we will never be far from a cold outbreak, apologies for no charts as I'm on the mobile site.

Also there are slightly lower heights over Southern Europe, indicated by that area of green over Italy

Edited November 26, 2013 by Joe Levy

[zubzero]

No comments probably because not much change expected yet in the run. However upstream looks much better on 18z. Heights building to the W of Greenland.

 

Yeah in fantasy land, out to the far reach's of what it's worth taking much notice of a single run ... It is back to square one with HP sat back over the UK in the 5 day range.

Edited November 26, 2013 by zubzero

[bradymk]

Yeah in fantasy land, out to the far reach's of what it's worth taking much notice of a single run ... It is back to square one with HP sat back over the UK in the 5 day range.

No one was ever expecting anything in that timeframe though? The high has been forecast to drift back over the UK for a good few days so not really sure of your point? I know FI isn't reliable, but that's where the potential lies, not in the 5 day timeframe, so we have no other choice than to look at FI at the moment for a more significant cold spell?

Edited November 26, 2013 by bradythemole

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oooooh matron! Look at all that lovely cold ready to be unleashed

 

 

 

 

 

[Joe Levy]

Yeah in fantasy land, out to the far reach's of what it's worth taking much notice of a single run ... It is back to square one with HP sat back over the UK in the 5 day range.

It doesn't matter that it's FI - we're looking for trends and this is a trend that has been repeated again and again (hence I have called it a trend I suppose!). When we talk about FI, it's more that we should ignore the details in FI. However, the broad pattern being shown on this run is an improvement, and actually many of the causes upstream are visible in the short range. It's about looking for signals in the short range which can lead to trends in FI.

[Matty M]

That us what we want to see, to split the vortex into a piece over interior Canada and a major piece over Russian Arctic with cross pole ridge! 

Seems like a very difficult pattern to come up with but it is what is being suggested at the moment!

[Ice Day]

Perhaps some interest building at 204 ?

 

[Ali1977]

This looks v good, greeny heights on the way

[Ice Day]

PV looking at mess at 252......just for fun of course!!

 

[Captain Shortwave]

That will do 

Much better chart for day 10 compared to the ECM op of earlier.

As Polar vortex reforms, note the next Atlantic ridge and crucially a potent area of low pressure over Iberia, Scandi high to see out the run

Insert GFS nonsensical gibberibish and CS being completely wrong 

Edited November 26, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Ali1977]

UK not being firing too much from that plunge of cold, all FI though as many say.

[bradymk]

That will do 

Much better chart for day 10 compared to the ECM op of earlier.

Then obliterates the pattern 

I would still say the ECM had a better pattern at day 10

[Jason T]

OOOh, Gives me Turkey goose bumps..... Such a reflection.

 

[A.J]

In the great scheme of things, individual op runs won't decide whether we have a cold blast during December, at times like these it's best to follow what the gefs / ecm mean plus the met office updates as mogreps plays a much bigger role than the Gfs 18z. :-)

repeat after me....'The models don't decide the weather'

[bluearmy]

'Posted 19 November 2013 - 21:32

Can we have the old ecm ens back please ?

On a more serious note, despite our side of the NH flattening out, the aleutian ridge re appears convincingly by day 10 and the siberian part of the vortex looks stronger.

The extended dutch ens keep approx half the members with a continental feed. 

 

 

Posted 20 November 2013 - 17:09

crazy user numbers on meteociel - 7000+.  no doubt all the europeans looking for their cold being brought south by our block. the 12z gfs low res stretches the upper strat vortex a tad and like the 06z reamplifies in two weeks.

 

the UKMO might look tedious this side of the pole but t'other is anything but and keep your eyes on the possibility of a deep trough being ejected of the siberian vortex in about a weeks time that may well dig down around kamchatka. that could well throw some serious WAA towards the pole and is likely the dynamic for the amplified ending we've seen on the past two gfs ops.'

 

on the 20th, cloud 10 posted a naefs T360 anomoly chart for 5th dec which looks pretty good for what is likely to verify, given the range.

 

other posters were also spotting what was happening.

 

my point is that what we see next week was picked up by the extended models (naefs, ecm ens) at two weeks range. there are currently no surprises out there. i think some are a tad guilty of hopecasting at times. although i recognise that the models are sometimes wrong, i see no reason to doubt them at the moment. they picked up last weeks northerly at two weeks range and next weeks the same.  

[Joe Levy]

Whilst this run of the gfs has provided us with some fantastic looking synoptics, it's worth bearing in mind that it doesn't give us very cold uppers! However, it is one run of the gfs, and this all takes place in FI. Let's get the pattern in place first and then consider the uppers! I am having this discussion with myself of course, for reassurance purposes... 

Edited November 26, 2013 by Joe Levy

[SMU]

A decent last few days watching the kernals of an idea around the Aleutian ridge start to land in a more medium term prospect-

 

These now being followed up by some 'decent' negative AO indexes- the 18z & ECM & GEM all paint a significant winter AO index of possibly below -3, although as it stands we aren't quite getting the stella outputs that we might hope for- with the interlinked NAO being projected to be slightly west based-

Look at the ECM 216 a very solid 3 wave pattern supported with mildly high polar heights

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013112612/ECH1-216.GIF?26-0

 

Plenty of time for it to slide East to support the UK ( As per GEM) & the most prosperous outlooks of the season so far- however not home & dry yet- but certainly a sniff of something wintry as we open December-

 

As for my September punt-

we have 1 above average, 1 average & November landing is below ave- so the next 3 months need to be below....

 

 

S

Edited November 26, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Mucka]

So the 18z provides a lovely synoptic but not the cold at day 9+ - guess which is more important at that range? 

I think if this signal continues to firm up then it is only a matter of time before we see some real eye candy appear in one of the Op's, it may not come off but at least people won't be saying Winters over based on one run.

 

Should be an interesting day tomorrow one way or another. 

Edited November 26, 2013 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

With the PV finally weakening and some good models appearing in FI, along with some positives for a cold winter from the meto i can imagine some excitement creeping in. Nothing may happen but it certainly makes for much better watching.

The biggest positive is that the Express are not talking about epic cold....

Edited November 26, 2013 by Ali1977