Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[TSNWK]

Serious question. Today's ECM 240 has polarised, some views yes the pun was intended why is that I wonder, I thought it looked ok, and so did other respected members, and then just when I thought I was getting the handle on some this, I read a flurry of posts suggesting that today's 240 chart is poor for coldies.

[nick sussex]

The profile across the Pole looks very interesting to me .

I'd bank this 240hr chart right now if I could

Second attachment is today's amazing sunset.

Yes the profile over the pole looks nice but it hasn't delivered at 240hrs and the window of opportunity is limited before the PV starts moving west again. Show me a more amplified upstream pattern at the key timeframe and I'll go along with a decent northerly otherwise I think it looks like a missed opportunity.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes the profile over the pole looks nice but it hasn't delivered at 240hrs and the window of opportunity is limited before the PV starts moving west again. Show me a more amplified upstream pattern at the key timeframe and I'll go along with a decent northerly otherwise I think it looks like a missed opportunity.

Fundamental problem is what are the chances of the polar vortex being obliterated like the ECM has shown.

I feel ever more keen to dub the ECM "The model that cried BOOMAGE!!!" 

Edited November 26, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Snowman.]

the cfs models is a pile of rubbish if you ask me its been going for Greenland block nearly all year absolutely needs throwing in the cat litter tray.

but yet another pretty typical set of model outputs and by god that pv is really tough this year but the states are getting the best of it all so far.

 

the ecm is even more of a worry because any kind of heights building nw north or even northeast looks likely to be destroyed by all the low pressures blasting out of the states and from the north although must be noted nothing above average showing.

 

and excellent post im dreaming of.

 

CFS picked this years March very early on most people discarded it.

 

Lighten up every time you post I have to get fetch the razor blades.

Edited November 26, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[IDO]

Serious question. Today's ECM 240 has polarised, some views yes the pun was intended why is that I wonder, I thought it looked ok, and so did other respected members, and then just when I thought I was getting the handle on some this, I read a flurry of posts suggesting that today's 240 chart is poor for coldies.

The ECM has a better split flow pattern, likely more favourable for the UK. So potential is much better than the GFS run(s). Yet another 10 day ECM chart that shows interest; put that with the eclectic mix of other model runs and inter runs and then take a pinch of salt. The models appear to be hunting around in the dark and we may have to go through this for another 3-5 days before they reach the light. Edited November 26, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Methuselah]

CFS picked this years March very early on most people discarded it.

 

And, what about all the ones it misses?

[Snowman.]

 

Pretty much sums up the PV

[cooling climate]

Fundamental problem is what are the chances of the polar vortex being obliterated like the ECM has shown.

I feel ever more keen to dub the ECM "The model that cried BOOMAGE!!!" 

To see the amplification across the western portion of the Arctic that the ECM run

shows then there would be evidence of this showing up in the temperature forcast

charts for the lower to middle stratosphere. If we do not see at least warming in the

lower stratosphere say 50mb then I do not think the heights shown by the ECM will

materialise.

There is strong wave

[Snowman.]

And, what about all the ones it misses?

True, but so have other models GFS can be wrong within the 3 day marks at times do we just get rid of it because it got it wrong once?

 

CFS isn't meant to be accurate at that range its meant to spot out trends, the fact the its showing means it can happen.

[summer blizzard]

Brilliant end to the Euro tonight with a trough slowly moving SE.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Fundamental problem is what are the chances of the polar vortex being obliterated like the ECM has shown.

I feel ever more keen to dub the ECM "The model that cried BOOMAGE!!!" 

 

I so nearly read that the wrong way.  

Edited November 26, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

And, what about all the ones it misses?

 

Aye, ain't that what's called trying to second guess the weather. No matter how hard we try, Mother nature will do what she decides to and with chaos theory and all that, it will differ to that projected. I guess what I'm trying to say, in plain English, us mere mortals and the NWP outputs still haven't got a clue.

Edited November 26, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[bradymk]

lets face it the cfs is worse than any model that goes out to fi its absolute rubbish.

 

Not if used correctly. Yes the daily run on meteociel which goes out to 9 months is rubbish i agree but the CFS is still one of the best longer range models if used correctly. The weekly/monthly anomalies i find are very useful if used together with other similar data to try predict the "overall" pattern 2-3 weeks ahead.  The CFS is just unfortunately a model that tries to predict for a time period which no model has ever or can predict accurately.

Edited November 26, 2013 by bradythemole

[gottolovethisweather]

Right, just in order to show that I can post on topic, here are the 12z ensembles in terms of their precipitation amounts and matching t850s to determine whether snow might be possible. Check back on this particular post over the coming days to see the trend moving forward.

 

 

Bear in mind, these are for Berkshire only but a trend of sorts can at least be watched for, over the coming days.

Edited November 26, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[ANYWEATHER]

The likelihood of some wintry weather at the end of the week for some , then high pressure returning , not sure what the the models are doing at the the moment but ecm and gfs show a big change mid week next week, some very cold air arriving from Greenland,the  timing of this is still out there, we will see..

[Cold Winter]

12z GFS ensembles continue to show the trend for colder weather from about 5th December onwards, with a few members keen to bring in the cold a day or so earlier. After 7th Dec the spread is wide again (as is usually seen towards the end of the GFS T850 graphs), but this will change over the next few days and probably produce a trend in one direction or the other.

 

[Fozfoster]

Some good charts tonight from ECM but no show from Steve M yet means its not going to happen in my book. Sorry, luv to be wrong though. ;-)

Just for fun on the Steve M swing-ometer ...... less than 30% LOL

Edited November 26, 2013 by Fozfoster

[Ian Brown]

Some good charts tonight from ECM but no show from Steve M yet means its not going to happen in my book. Sorry, luv to be wrong though. ;-)Just for fun on the Steve M swing-ometer ...... less than 30% LOL

 

Northerlies are not really Steve's thing, besides which however we look at the charts, any cold shots will be transient.

[Summer Sun]

Here's the latest from Gibby on the 12z models

 

All models show a weak warm front drifting down over Southern Britain replacing todays brightness with overcast and damp conditions with light rain and drizzle for a while with hill fog and extensive mist developing. All areas then remain cloudy and somewhat milder with little in the way of frost, fog or brightness. On Friday a cold front moves down from the NW with a band of light rain ushering in clearer and colder conditions with NW winds and occasional showers, wintry in the North for a time. Then as the weekend unfolds winds back Westerly again and milder air returns across the North with more cloud while Southern areas see out the weekend with fine and bright conditions following overnight frosts.

 

GFS then enters next week with mild Westerly winds across Northern Britain while Southern areas remain under High pressure with a similar split in conditions North to South as Sunday. Towards midweek a weak cold front crosses SE with another spell of drizzly rain. Things then become more changeable with a brief colder interlude with wintry showers in the North and East before rain at times and generally milder conditions take control towards the end of the run with largely West or SW winds.

 

UKMO closes it's run next Tuesday with High pressure centred over England and Wales with fine and dry conditions with some frost and fog night and morning in the South while the North stays more cloudy and somewhat milder.

 

GEM maintains its stance of this morning beginning next week fine and quite settled before more unsettled, colder and windier weather with rain and strong winds at times takes hold later in the week from the North. It will be cold enough for snow to fall on Northern hills at times.

 

NAVGEM shows fine weather holding at the end of it's run as High pressure remains ridged up across Southern Britain. Weak troughs affect the far North and East at times with a little rain in temperatures close to average.

 

ECM shows conditions steadily turning colder and more unsettled through next week as High pressure finally loses influence across the UK in preference to wet and windy conditions as Low pressure feeds down from the NW. Some snow may also occur on Northern higher elevations later in the week.

 

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a trend towards more cold zonal type weather as Atlantic depressions take a more Southerly track across the UK and Europe with some cold air drawn South on their western flank. It is not shown to become particularly cold however from most of its members and snow would likely be restricted to Northern high ground.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow encircling an Anticyclone close to West and SW Britain for the remainder of the week before a slow trend to drag the flow South towards and over the UK next week commences.

 

In Summary tonight there is little changes from this morning with only slightly different variations on a theme maintaining the trend for more unsettled and colder conditions to move down from the North at least for a time later next week. No deep cold is shown but it will certainly be cold enough for some snow on Northern high ground and it will certainly alter the complexion of the weather from that most of the UK has experienced recently with wind and rain becoming much more frequent a visitor than of late.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[Ian Brown]

Brilliant end to the Euro tonight with a trough slowly moving SE.

 

Well its T240 and another variation on the theme, hard to say what would happen from there. 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM Mean at day 10

 

GFS mean for the same time

 

GFS showing the pattern a little clearer but both on the same hymn sheet to be honest.

Probably a more realistic look into what happens. Key thing is amount of amplification of the Atlantic ridge we get which will decide how potent any Arctic blast will be and of course what happens afterwards.

Draztik this morning posted tentative signals for heights building through the UK towards the north east at the end of week 2 (ECM ext ens). Could see a route there if the low which brings a northerly around the 7th gets cut off over Europe as the Polar vortex transfers across the pole. 

GFS ens at T300 show this well (ignore the Europe pattern)

I think if this polar profile is about to shift then we might get a window of opportunity here if we develop a deep trough over the states (quite possible considering the day 10 charts), we might be able to build the Atlantic ridge through the UK and towards Scandinavia as the polar vortex eases its grip on the region.

Of course if the models decrease the level of amplification in the longwave pattern as we get closer to the 2nd week of December then this whole situation pretty much becomes pretty much impossible to achieve. 

Edited November 26, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[essexweather]

Good evening :-)

 

With the recent upgrade in resolution to the ECM, I have finally managed to add the ensembles to reflect the new format:

 

http://www.essexweather.com/outlook.html

 

And as a few asked, I've added a GFS version too. Thinking of adding 850 hPa and snow depth ensembles too, but maybe too cluttered unless I make the other charts smaller?

 

Anyway, fingers crossed for December!

[Frosty.]

I like the latest met office update.....this being the best part...but it is set to turn colder in the north, Later in this period, there is a chance that the colder conditions may spread across the uk, with more wintry weather for some, and a risk of gales, especially towards the north....and then, there are indications that temperatures are likely to remain below average for the time of year, so I would think with below average temps being favoured, there would be a risk of snow, at least across hills and more generally further north. It's good to see all the charts I and we have posted in recent days supporting a colder outlook has substance and was not just hopecasting..I think a wintry spell is on the way, either by the end of next week or soon after, there is good ensemble support and the Gem is showing no sign of backing down from it's cold unsettled further outlook.. 

[zubzero]

No comments on the gfs so far tells you all you need to know 

 

After a brief North westerly it is back to square one http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013112618/gfsnh-0-144.png?18

Edited November 26, 2013 by zubzero

[ukpaul]

Watch the run, look upstream, why people insist on commenting on things before they've happened I will never know.