Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Frosty.]

Make a note your diaries for the weekend of the 7th and 8th of December.

 

 

I'm banking this chart. 

Blue HEAVEN.....yet more growing support from the 12z output and an UPGRADE met office update..roll on winter in T minus 5 days. :-)

[Summer Sun]

GEM is less cold than GFS by quite some margin at t240, it would probably get there in the end just slower

 

GFS

 

 

GEM

 

 

 

GFS goes for a northerly whilst GEM goes for a north westerly

Edited November 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Gavin Hannah]

The ECM is more in line with the GFS so it's a 2 - 1 majority. And in a democracy, majority rules lol.  

[Joe Levy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=186&y=177 (South West England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=250&y=5 (Northern England)

The 12Z GEFS shows that the ensembles are coming to a bit more of an agreement about the prospects for cold weather late next week, with a spell of a few days the most likely outcome at the moment. However, even after that spell there is still potential for the cold to return but this would not be guaranteed to show up all the time on the models as that is very deep in FI. So some exciting prospects for the nearer term, with still a degree of uncertainty, and other things to consider for FI.

[gottolovethisweather]

 

dont forget that quasi modo thing!!  Anyway not a bad mornings output esp ecm.12z app?the best gfs run of the day so lets seeif it delivers !Slightly less amplified in the atlantic and the pv looking stronger and more westward at 144 hrs on the 12z 

 

Or was that just a hunch of yours  , I'll fetch my coat too as I think we'll be needing it before too long, along with Christmas cheer, woolly scarves and thick skins for just when it does or does not go the way of the pear. Anyway, now what exactly did the latest runs produce.

Edited November 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Mucka]

GFS 12z ensembles central England

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=249&y=87

 

Still good agreement on a cold snap though noticeable how the main thrust of cold has been moved back a little, (double dip which is probably a result of that shortwave)

Edited November 27, 2013 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 12z GEM hasn't finished running yet. At least on meteociel it hasn't

 you can always find it on 'meteocentre.com' if its slow out on meteociel.

[HammerJack]

Do we still have access to the UKMO model? I have seen no comments regarding this.... Cheers

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM is less cold than GFS by quite some margin at t240, it would probably get there in the end just slower

 

GFS

 

 

GEM

 

 

 

GFS goes for a northerly whilst GEM goes for a north westerly

 

GEM would still get there but is 2 days or so behind GFS

[bluearmy]

 

Do we still have access to the UKMO model? I have seen no comments regarding this.... Cheers

 The ukmo model only goes out to day 6 and the interest starts at day 8. the building blocks look fine on ukmo at day 6,.

[gottolovethisweather]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=186&y=177 (South West England

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=250&y=5 (Northern England)

The 12Z GEFS shows that the ensembles are coming to a bit more of an agreement about the prospects for cold weather late next week, with a spell of a few days the most likely outcome at the moment. However, even after that spell there is still potential for the cold to return but this would not be guaranteed to show up all the time on the models as that is very deep in FI. So some exciting prospects for the nearer term, with still a degree of uncertainty, and other things to consider for FI.

 

Hi Joe, Thanks for those links once again and my personal watch on the key date (at least in my mind) of 3rd December remains unmoved, as it has done for at least 12 GFS runs, 6 ECM and 6 UKMO runs and any others one can think of. This leads me to the conclusion that the MetO were correct in rewording their forecasts today based on the evidence at hand. The 3rd December timeframe would have been positioned at 216 hours just three days ago and now it has been brought forward to watching the outputs from t+144 and thereafter. The bone of contention must be just how to deal with the initial disturbance off the Eastern coast of the US, I guess, anyone confirm if I'm reading this correctly? The goalposts are most definitely slowly shifting but to where? I'm placing bets at 70:30 in favour of something colder right now.

Edited November 27, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Snowman.]

GEM would still get there but is 2 days or so behind GFS

I would say GEM is the better.

 

May last longer than the GFS.

[Summer Sun]

Do we still have access to the UKMO model? I have seen no comments regarding this.... Cheers

 

Yeah its still available with the added bonus now of the 850's to t144

 

 

ECM at t144 showing the colder air coming in to the north, the south remains mild for one more day

 

Edited November 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Cloud 10]

Can the ECM find the key to open the Arctic flood gates?

 

144 hrs..

 

 

Just seen the GEM,looks like its been on the brandy!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Can the ECM find the key to open the Arctic flood gates?

 

144 hrs..ECH0-144.gif

 

 

Just seen the GEM,looks like its been on the brandy!

 

It's entirely possible that if the vortex is slower to leave the Greenland area, the N'ly could be delayed by a day or two. Looks like the ECM is toying with this on the 12z. Certainly a little slower at day 7 than the 0z. Looks similar to the 12z GFS at the same point in time.....which doesn't happen very often!

Edited November 27, 2013 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

t168 from ECM keeps the high over the UK

 

[beng]

Yeah its still available with the added bonus now of the 850's to  ECM at t144 showing the colder air coming in to the north, the south remains mild for one more day 

Quite likely to be a temperature inversion across the South IMO.

[Summer Sun]

t192 has a northerly incoming with the cold getting closer

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

t192 has a northerly incoming with the cold getting closer

 

 

We need to see that trough dig further S at 216 otherwise heights will increase from the west too quickly to enable the coldest uppers to advect south. A shallow LP developing around the Iceland area (running SE) would probably do the trick as it would help rather than hinder us in this instance.

Edited November 27, 2013 by CreweCold

[EML Network]

mm the JMA at + 192 not sure what to make of it, could go either way from here.

 

[Summer Sun]

And here is the northerly

 

[Mucka]

Sweet but likely short  Northerly

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

And here is the northerly

 

 

Not the most convincing of set ups and is what I feared with the arrival of the day 8 chart. The 0z was a much nicer run. You can see due to residual vortex energy around Canada/Greenland that the pattern is moving west-east too fast.

[snowice]

ecm 216h cold uppers

[Summer Sun]

High pressure shifts the northerly away at t240 it remains cold but back to square one over Greenland with low pressure back

 

Edited November 27, 2013 by Summer Sun