North West Regional Discussion 19/11/2013 --->

[pip22]

TBH I can see windstorms will be more likely feature than snow this December especially if the mild SWs involved. I wouldn't mind we have a storm or two over Christmas.   The weather in the next couple of weeks is going to be changeable and mobile, much like last late October.

[feb1991blizzard]

The ECM 0z would have done us just fine, im not saying it would have been on the same scale but I could see similarities with 17/18th Dec 2010 and feel sure places like Liverpool would have got battered, but the 12z has a more direct Northerly feed rather than the curve around to a NW / WNW feed, places on the coast would still get something, and there is some quite stunning uppers still, but the usual Eastward correction coupled with fergie's comments that it could be a blink and you will miss it affair have tainted today, im not too bothered about the GFS as that could still come on board though - jury out for time being - more runs needed, feel sure by Monday morning we will have a definitive answer though.

[UV-RAY]

That eastward correction was something I mentioned yesterday in the model thread, it would be a rare event for the models to show this being pushed back westwards from hereon, rare but not impossible. Fingers crossed otherwise we'll be looking at very cold but mainly dry few days. 

Edited November 30, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ECM 0z would have done us just fine, im not saying it would have been on the same scale but I could see similarities with 17/18th Dec 2010 and feel sure places like Liverpool would have got battered, but the 12z has a more direct Northerly feed rather than the curve around to a NW / WNW feed, places on the coast would still get something, and there is some quite stunning uppers still, but the usual Eastward correction coupled with fergie's comments that it could be a blink and you will miss it affair have tainted today, im not too bothered about the GFS as that could still come on board though - jury out for time being - more runs needed, feel sure by Monday morning we will have a definitive answer though.

 

I duno, ECM shows winds NW'ly enough at 144hrs to drive showers into Cheshire and my neck of the woods...infact a streamer would be highly probable from that (-10 850s and a warmish Irish Sea). N of Cheshire would probably be dry though.

 

Don't worry, I'd get some pics up

Edited November 30, 2013 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

I duno, ECM shows winds NW'ly enough at 144hrs to drive showers into Cheshire and my neck of the woods...infact a streamer would be highly probable from that (-10 850s and a warmish Irish Sea). N of Cheshire would probably be dry though.

 

Don't worry, I'd get some pics up

 

Yes its not bad, I probably would get wishboned but realise its about everyone in the NW so yes maybe others would get a bit but we don't want that window to get shorter, that's as far east as we want the pattern, NO further, and preferably a Westward correction.

 

Looks like I was right about the GFS not being anything to worry about so there is a plus, looks like it was being way to progressive, NOAA have trashed it according to Nick Sussex.

Edited November 30, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[SnowObsessor90]

I duno, ECM shows winds NW'ly enough at 144hrs to drive showers into Cheshire and my neck of the woods...infact a streamer would be highly probable from that (-10 850s and a warmish Irish Sea). N of Cheshire would probably be dry though.

 

Don't worry, I'd get some pics up

When you say North of Cheshire you don't happen to mean Backtrack's ( and my) BY do you....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes its not bad, I probably would get wishboned but realise its about everyone in the NW so yes maybe others would get a bit but we don't want that window to get shorter, that's as far east as we want the pattern, NO further, and preferably a Westward correction.

 

Looks like I was right about the GFS not being anything to worry about so there is a plus, looks like it was being way to progressive, NOAA have trashed it according to Nick Sussex.

 

Yeah. I've checked the precipitation output for the ECM and it does infact bring a streamer like feature down. It grazes W Lancashire, pushes south through Merseyside and Cheshire, across towards S-O-T. Wales sees the most.

When you say North of Cheshire you don't happen to mean Backtrack's ( and my) BY do you....

 

No, north of you I meant.

[UV-RAY]

I duno, ECM shows winds NW'ly enough at 144hrs to drive showers into Cheshire and my neck of the woods...infact a streamer would be highly probable from that (-10 850s and a warmish Irish Sea). N of Cheshire would probably be dry though.

 

Don't worry, I'd get some pics up

You best not hog all the snow again CC.

[Chris.R]

Why have you said that the SE isn't going to get -20 and a blizzard big enough to tell the grand kids about.I've noticed that It usually has that effect with some on there. 

haha not quite, I just posted the met office UK outlook, and commented on it, saying how good it was to have their support for a cold spell in these uncertain times. Lol

[Chris.R]

I duno, ECM shows winds NW'ly enough at 144hrs to drive showers into Cheshire and my neck of the woods...infact a streamer would be highly probable from that (-10 850s and a warmish Irish Sea). N of Cheshire would probably be dry though.

 

Don't worry, I'd get some pics up

 

Well, IMO, with that sort of contrast between the SSTs and uppers, then I would expect that as well as snow, graupel, hail, and a significant risk of lightning would exist if a streamer does set up, particularly for my location and other coastal areas. Also don't forget, any disturbances in the flow, such as troughs or shortwaves, which won't really be picked up by the models until a few days out, would likely give a more prolonged period of snow/graupel in a similar way to that legendary night of 17/12/10. 

[iand61]

Well, IMO, with that sort of contrast between the SSTs and uppers, then I would expect that as well as snow, graupel, hail, and a significant risk of lightning would exist if a streamer does set up, particularly for my location and other coastal areas. Also don't forget, any disturbances in the flow, such as troughs or shortwaves, which won't really be picked up by the models until a few days out, would likely give a more prolonged period of snow/graupel in a similar way to that legendary night of 17/12/10.

Enjoy it if you get it.It'll be dry over here with the feed from that direction.

[davacr123]

Just had a chuckle at crews comment on mod thread lol

Always thought they were hairy not crystal

Edited November 30, 2013 by davacr123

[Mokidugway]

Anyone picking up lightening flashes over the irish sea quite high up so i dont think it was fireworks ?...

[cheshire snow]

Just had a chuckle at crews comment on mod thread lolAlways thought they were hairy not crystal

 

 this made me laugh LOL

 

 C.S

[Cheshire Freeze]

Anyone picking up lightening flashes over the irish sea quite high up so i dont think it was fireworks ?...

 

Yep saw flashes towards the NW when I went out couple of hours ago.....thought it was fireworks.

Edited November 30, 2013 by CreweCold

[Chris.R]

Anyone picking up lightening flashes over the irish sea quite high up so i dont think it was fireworks ?...

Interesting. No sferics currently, and nothing on strike display. 

There shouldn't be any lightning around, pressure is too high etc, but as I said earlier, there could be plenty of lightning next  weekend!

Yep saw flashes towards the NW when I went out couple of hours ago.....thought it was fireworks.

Strange. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes very strange!!!!!!

 

[Jan]

OMG it's not over my house is it? My temper is very frayed, has been know to cause sferics in the locality grrrrrrrrrrr

[Mokidugway]

Been another about 2 mins ago very odd , is there any warm sea convection streamers in the irish sea ?

[Chris.R]

There shouldn't be. There really shouldn't be. Am on sferic watch now. 

[Mokidugway]

Odd thought i was seeing things but wife saw it as well !!...

[Chris.R]

Nothing yet. 

[pip22]

Been another about 2 mins ago very odd , is there any warm sea convection streamers in the irish sea ?

I think its the lighthouse does that. Theres no lightning according to this radar:

 

Otherwise it be a red dot on it.

Edited November 30, 2013 by pip22

[Mokidugway]

Must admit i am beginning to think theres an anthropological reason for it ,flares etc stil l quite odd though 30 years of weather waching and a farming background tells me it was lightning !!!....

[Ian Brown]

That eastward correction was something I mentioned yesterday in the model thread, it would be a rare event for the models to show this being pushed back westwards from hereon, rare but not impossible. Fingers crossed otherwise we'll be looking at very cold but mainly dry few days. 

 

There is zero margin for error even on the ECM, I would think that the most likely outcome is a glancing blow northerly where there isn't time for Showers to get going over the NW before the flow is cut off from the West.