North West Regional Discussion 19/11/2013 --->

[WillinGlossop]

Netweather has updated forecast for sk13 on thursday and now only a maximum of 3c thursday ( was 7c earlier) and heavy precip at 300m.....evaporative cooling may well give some snow falling.....laying is a completely different matter.....

Edited December 2, 2013 by WillinGlossop

[Chris.R]

Yes back edge snow is a possibility on the cold front, and I still think i'll get some good irish sea convection setting up on thursday night/friday morning. 

[pip22]

Don't forget it is gonna get very stormy on Thursday too. It may reach to 70mph on the coast here. Thursday is going to be a very interesting day for weather. Storms is a bonus!! Getting excited!!

 

Heres the weather warning:

 

YELLOW early warning for WIND for NORTHERN and CENTRAL regions of the UK.

 

 

Westerly gales are expected to spread southwards across northern and some central parts of the UK on Thursday, with gusts of 60 to 70 mph possible. The winds will veer northerly or northwesterly and ease a little later in the day, with the stronger winds becoming confined to the far northeast of the UK by early Friday.

The public should be aware of possible disruption to travel, particularly through the central belt of Scotland and over higher routes of northern England on Thursday. Large waves, high tides and surge may also cause some coastal flooding along the East Coast of England.

 

 

Valid from 0005 until 1800 on Thursday 5th Dec.

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by pip22

[Chris.R]

Will be heading to the beach on thursday afternoon as the cold front clears. See what winds are like, and tides, and to watch the convection building. 

[cheshire snow]

Yes back edge snow is a possibility on the cold front, and I still think i'll get some good irish sea convection setting up on thursday night/friday morning. 

 

 Indeed Chris

 

I thought this yesterday but IanB reckons no chance

 

C.S

[Backtrack]

I'm close to the coast so I'll probably see some snow showers

 

Would rather it just stay sunny of the day and cold of the night though

[Mokidugway]

10.1metre tide at 12.40 pm with 80 km gusts, will be eating my butty on the car park at earnsie bay watching 4m waves !!!..

[itsnowjoke]

Temp down to 5c.

[Chris.R]

I'm close to the coast so I'll probably see some snow showers

 

Would rather it just stay sunny of the day and cold of the night though

If you're close to the coast, then i'm practically in the sea! lol do think you will get something though. 

[Chris.R]

10.1metre tide at 12.40 pm with 80 km gusts, will be eating my butty on the car park at earnsie bay watching 4m waves !!!..

Yes, 9.9 M high tide around here at 12:20 , and I would expect the waves to easily breach the seawall and into the carpark at Crosby coastguard station. Unfortunately, I am in University until 12:30, so am unable to get to the beach untill an hour or so after high tide, by which time it would have gone out a few channels which is a shame. Trying to think of a reason to stay off on Thursday, but struggling.

[Chris.R]

BTW 7.2 °C here and pressure 1030.7 mB. 

[cheshire snow]

Temp down to 5c.

 

 Good post on the MOD by the way

 

 C.S

[Chris.R]

Just look at the uppers. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snowforecast;sess=

Remember to put your postcode in. 

Has been cheering me up all day looking at those. 

[cheshire snow]

Just look at the uppers. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snowforecast;sess=

Remember to put your postcode in. 

Has been cheering me up all day looking at those. 

 

 Exactly any ppn will fall as snow

 

 C.S

[Chris.R]

 Exactly any ppn will fall as snow

 

 C.S

Yep no marginality this time. I don't care how short lived this northerly is, as far as I'm concerned, having a northerly without any marginality is something big for this early in the month. Also, I still maintain such a contrast between those uppers and SSTs will create some Vigourous showers with a significant risk of lightning at times around the coast, providing there is enough CAPE around. 

[Mokidugway]

I have a gut feeling that with all that wind, and the sea not that cold it doesent bode well for here, anyone in the lakes could do ok though .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just look at the uppers. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snowforecast;sess=

Remember to put your postcode in. 

Has been cheering me up all day looking at those. 

 

those thicknesses do not look ideal? I dunno about for your location, but for mine it needs to be 522 or lower, or it's just rain off this setup, different off an easterly though

[Chris.R]

those thicknesses do not look ideal? I dunno about for your location, but for mine it needs to be 522 or lower, or it's just rain off this setup, different off an easterly though

Yes, but I don't think the thicknesses really have much bearing in this setup. I'm sure the proximity of high pressure does something to them. . I remember last winter similar was the case in certain setups. 

I may well be wrong. In either case, I think by Thursday, then nowcasting is the best thing to do anyway which is exciting. 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Chris R

[iand61]

Nothing in the way of showers here I imagine.

Maybe a bit of back edge snow on Thursday as the front clears through but then it's probably going to be dry, sunny and a perishing wind.

At least it will look and feel a bit more festive but whether that will be the case nearer to Christmas is anyone's guess.

As for the present; quite a mild feeling 5.7c at the moment after a decent day.

[WillinGlossop]

1.5c frost on cars doesnt feel that cold so suprised..... Bit like the other day when went for a walk and saw people scraping cars....didnt think it was cold enough for ice on cars...... Couple of mornings where had to really crank open the bins because of thick ice.....

[Chris.R]

7.2 °C, 1030.3 mB, 89% RH. 

[itsnowjoke]

Good post on the MOD by the way

 

 C.S

Thanks it needed to be said i thought the idea in that forum was to discuss what the models were showing even if it goes t##s up. People are in that thread moaning telling other members to post in the moaning thread a bit rich that. Cant believe how much trouble weather that has not even happened yet causes

[itsnowjoke]

Night all

[Chris.R]

Once again, slight upgrade to the northerly on the GFS 18 Z. I await the 0Zs in the morning. Night all. 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

The wind on thursday looks damn strong, looking at the latest gfs it could be gusting around 80mph here!