North West Regional Discussion 19/11/2013 --->

[Snow free zone]

Not missing much Marra.

 

Looks like it could be getting a little windy over the next 24 hrs.

 

As for the artic blast

 

Then again it could be worse looking at the posts chasing the cold from the east in the MO thread at t380 +

 

Nice to see the sun today as well.

[NickyB]

Shedhead........cant stand that guy, his posts are so depressing, be it summer or winter. lucky im banned off the model forum.

Really!!? You naughty chap LOL

[Snow free zone]

Amber warning just been issued by the Met Office for parts of the NW tomorrow - for potentially damaging winds.

[dodge]

Yep might have took my eyes off the ferocity of the wind, whist thinking about the following artic  blast.. (whimper)

 

Some very strong winds could be evidence tomorrow as it whips over the pennine hills and parts of Northern England.

 

Not keen on mild muck that's forecasted after the brief northerly but the models can chop and change at the drop of a hat, so don't hammer that nail in the coffin of a White Chrimbo just yet.

[davacr123]

"I'm still inclined to go with that continental surface flow for most of the UK in the medium term" this from nick Sussex in the mod thread things like this drive me mad as the se is not the most of the uk grrrrr

[Chris.R]

Well the good news for me is that I can stay off University tomorrow/, so I can get to the beach for high tide. I'm still positive in terms of the northerly afterwards as well.

I have to say, that amber warning sounds serious as far as coastal flooding is concerned. Love the way that they miss merseyside out though lol. 

Bit hopeful there Chris. Nothing will be happening in our neck of the woods! Nailed on rain if anything,even then itll be drizzly and light

We'll see. 

[Mokidugway]

I see I am under an amber warning now, exciting stuff any way back to work ........

[jam2010]

Also in the amber zone very exciting could be interesting getting the tram tommorow for work, then. An artic sneeze

[nodrog]

Metfy are on it also... http://www.metfy.info/ they have also closed the flood gates at Little Bispham.

[pip22]

The weather app on my Iphone has put me 5C light rain. Forget about the cold snap, its too short. May as well its the continuation of the mild spell we have now, except it is windier though that would cause a ''crap'' cold snap.

 

I rather sleep through this very short ''crap'' cold snap, never mind blink it.

 

 

I really hope the Daily Express will say ''Record breaking temperatures for December expected across the uk next week'' or something like that, then the models will probably suddenly change for better for the coldies pov. If that were happening that would be a face palm over mildie's faces.

Edited December 4, 2013 by pip22

[Chris.R]

Upgrade on the uppers on the 12z, at least for me. Will check the TAFS shortly when they update. 

[Chris.R]

Well the TAFs are confusing, they don't seem to reflect what the met office are saying. 

[SP1986]

In what sense Chris? I thought the warnings issued by the met office were illogical because the coast will get hit worst by the wind?

[Chris.R]

In what sense Chris? I thought the warnings issued by the met office were illogical because the coast will get hit worst by the wind?

Yes, they do go for 50 KT gusts, but more to do with the cold front. The met office go for the rain to spread in in the early hours and clear around midday. The TAF for Manchester shows rain from 04Z to 16Z, and Liverpool just go for rain between 13Z and 16Z. Just doesn't seem consistent to me. 

In terms of the warnings, I agree, I Was very surprised that merseyside was not included in the warning area unless i'm missing something. Plaices like the Sefton coast are very exposed in a westerly, and so why should somewhere like Blackpool be in the warning, but not Formby for example. 

As I said before, I shall be going to Crosby beach near the coastguard station tomorrow at high tide to see the situation. I expect it to be very wiled indeed!

[SP1986]

It's not unusual for Manchester to see rain earlier than Merseyside, as here we are protected and sheltered, Ive seen it countless times actually. 

 

As for the wind, yes, it will be strong on the coast than inland, as you'd expect, perhaps it's because the coast often sees these speeds at some point during any given year, therefore it doesn't warrant a warning as much as inland areas. Though given that people might be visiting the coast from inland, it doesn't really add up necessarily (my theory). 

 

I will be going to New Brighton to see the state of things, though I suspect West Kirby would be better.

[pip22]

Yes, they do go for 50 KT gusts, but more to do with the cold front. The met office go for the rain to spread in in the early hours and clear around midday. The TAF for Manchester shows rain from 04Z to 16Z, and Liverpool just go for rain between 13Z and 16Z. Just doesn't seem consistent to me. 

In terms of the warnings, I agree, I Was very surprised that merseyside was not included in the warning area unless i'm missing something. Plaices like the Sefton coast are very exposed in a westerly, and so why should somewhere like Blackpool be in the warning, but not Formby for example. 

As I said before, I shall be going to Crosby beach near the coastguard station tomorrow at high tide to see the situation. I expect it to be very wiled indeed!

Yes it is, I'm excited for it. I would love a good storm.    When I went to Lancaster today I saw some snow on the hills to the north and I thought myself will the rain turns to snow tomorrow? Not to sure TBH.  Anyway it is going to be an interesting day tomorrow.

 

I watched the bbc weather and it says it will snow on Friday evening but it will readily turn back to rain. The highest ground may stay as snow though. But still I wouldn't count as a cold snap. Its ''too short'' for one or might not be here at all.

 

I'm happy that some models suggesting south-east winds coming off the mainland Europe later next week. I wouldn't surprised if the models ruled it out.

Edited December 4, 2013 by pip22

[Chris.R]

It's not unusual for Manchester to see rain earlier than Merseyside, as here we are protected and sheltered, Ive seen it countless times actually. 

 

As for the wind, yes, it will be strong on the coast than inland, as you'd expect, perhaps it's because the coast often sees these speeds at some point during any given year, therefore it doesn't warrant a warning as much as inland areas. Though given that people might be visiting the coast from inland, it doesn't really add up necessarily (my theory). 

 

I will be going to New Brighton to see the state of things, though I suspect West Kirby would be better.

Yes, very true rea all your points; hadn't thought of it like that. I'll just be nowcasting tomorrow anyway and we'll see what happens :-)

[iand61]

Yes, they do go for 50 KT gusts, but more to do with the cold front. The met office go for the rain to spread in in the early hours and clear around midday. The TAF for Manchester shows rain from 04Z to 16Z, and Liverpool just go for rain between 13Z and 16Z. Just doesn't seem consistent to me. In terms of the warnings, I agree, I Was very surprised that merseyside was not included in the warning area unless i'm missing something. Plaices like the Sefton coast are very exposed in a westerly, and so why should somewhere like Blackpool be in the warning, but not Formby for example. As I said before, I shall be going to Crosby beach near the coastguard station tomorrow at high tide to see the situation. I expect it to be very wiled indeed!

I'm no expert but I'd imagine that it's more to do with the more southerly location of Merseyside compared to Blackpool than anything else.The emphasis of the strongest winds has always been Scotland with conditions easing the further south you go and in the Met Offices opinion the southerly extent of the strongest winds seems to be the South Lancs, Manchester area but that doesn't mean that other further south won't have problems.As is often the case in these set ups, the other side of the Pennines looks to see even higher gusts as the day goes on.It will certainly be interesting on the north south motorways M6, A1 as well as the regions high level routes and bridges.

[Miamay]

It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow and how accurate the forecasting is. The enviromental agency has put out a warning for the east coast for a big tidal surge in 30 years !!

[gareth73]

Noticed the met office upgraded the storm. Hard to believe a storm on it's way. Outside is calm and temps dropping away with cloud breaking up. See Scotrail have already cancelled all trains for the first part of the day. I work near the top floor of the Arndale Tower so I wonder if we will feel anything !,

[Chris.R]

I'm no expert but I'd imagine that it's more to do with the more southerly location of Merseyside compared to Blackpool than anything else.The emphasis of the strongest winds has always been Scotland with conditions easing the further south you go and in the Met Offices opinion the southerly extent of the strongest winds seems to be the South Lancs, Manchester area but that doesn't mean that other further south won't have problems.As is often the case in these set ups, the other side of the Pennines looks to see even higher gusts as the day goes on.It will certainly be interesting on the north south motorways M6, A1 as well as the regions high level routes and bridges.

Yes, fair enough. 

[cheshire snow]

Just watched the national weather the wind was the main focus(Rightly so) but tomorrow evening was showing quite a few snow showers 

over Merseyside/Cheshire area and into the N Midlands

 

C.S

[Chris.R]

Well, had a great evening in the pub, and a great evening for Merseyside football! Sets the scene nicely for tomorrow's interesting weather.

Here, the wind is getting up quite a bit already. 

The temperature is steady at 6.8 °C, but the pressure is beginning to fall slowly, currently 1028.0 mB. 

[Chris.R]

Just watched the national weather the wind was the main focus(Rightly so) but tomorrow evening was showing quite a few snow showers 

over Merseyside/Cheshire area and into the N Midlands

 

C.S

Yep, still looking interesting in the 12 hours or so from Thursday afternoon to  Friday morning, I think I'm in an ideal position I hope. Let's just enjoy the interesting weather and nowcast! 

[WillinGlossop]

Was 1.6c earlier with clear skies..... Now overcast with 3c wind is increasing but just making it feel chillier at mo.... A few scandinavian sites still going for 2-5cm for 200m and above in pennines tomorrow? Will see.... Evap cooling if precip is heavy enough? Questionable but maybe 10-5% chance....

Plus city win away , utd lose at home waha good evening....

Edited December 4, 2013 by WillinGlossop