Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[gottolovethisweather]

C'mon folks no point chasing illusory cold the games up for the foreseeable

 

I'm a mega coldie but I'm not blind.

 

Change your avatar and we might be in luck. I do believe as suggested by one or two other knowledgeable folk in here, the Temperatures at the surface may not be indicative of the forecast uppers. Having said that, as you suggest it does look very uninspiring just now when talking about the weather past Friday.  

Edited December 3, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[weatherguy]

Disgusting ECM this evening!  Hopefully an outlier... 

[Frosty.]

Yup.... Thankfully some of us have learned not to care a jot whether it's a mild, average or cold outcome and to then concern ourselves wIth 12-72hr forecast issues. All interesting whatever the outcome...!

MOGREPS is the key, even when the ecm was churning out those very wintry FI's last winter, more often than not, mogreps was showing something more average.

[pad199207]

If theres no hope of an easterly coming to fruition well then ill happily take that ECM this evening!

 

Far more interesting to watch your temp gauges to see how high they can get in December then to be stuck around the same figure like the past week and a half!

[Roger J Smith]

Fantasy Island seems to have been towed into the western Med at least on the GEM, even I don't expect that to verify (14 C uppers? c'mon now). Very mild is the theme however on almost all guidance and I would expect that signal to remain strong until New Years. I could imagine some 10 C uppers and surface 15 C readings at some times during mid to late December. That 14 C upper would bring about record high values at the surface, above 18 C where the air mixes. An inversion fog under that could still give 10 C at the surface.

 

The most hopeful thing I could say for winter weather lovers is that patterns often reload after 20-30 days and if the current short-range pattern reloads somewhat further south, then a Jan 1987 type flip-flop would be easy to imagine, let's say if a low dive-bombs across the UK into central Europe on a track 200 miles south of this one coming along, around the first week of January, then the Atlantic would not find it as easy to push into the void and even if retrograde index was not overly high, you could get a good Scandinavian block setting up. So I would say, expect some good things in the period 5-20 Jan with 8-12 Jan the heart of the window of opportunity from my research. Before that, any notable records likely to be on the high side.

[UV-RAY]

Thanks Ian, to be honest to get to those positive anomalies I would have thought the foundation has to be laid within the 240hrs mark. Anyway given the huge differences between tonights ECM 12hrs and last nights I think we had better wait till tomorrow. I'm rather dubious of tonights ECM, at worst I expected a continental se'rly flow for the UK with an inversion type scenario, certainly not BBQ and t-shirt weather!

I know one poster other than Gav who'll be happy at what's being modelled and that's Roger J Smith, if these charts verified that is.

[Weather-history]

Far more interesting to watch your temp gauges to see how high they can get in December then to be stuck around the same figure like the past week and a half!

All that with happen is that they be stuck at a higher level instead. If there is a lot of cloud in the flow then I would expect to see little temperature variation. Edited December 3, 2013 by Weather-history

[swfc]

MOGREPS is the key, even when the ecm was churning out those very wintry FI's last winter, more often than not, mogreps was showing something more average.

Wish i had your optimism frosty honest You would make a great mp lol.Any change on that ecm back to where it has been previous would indicate a dodgy run i guess but all the models today are pretty much same at the 144 hour mark .that shows a very flat set up tbh 

[phil nw.]

We know easterlies are never straightforward patterns to achieve and often build in stages .

The first stage is to get the Atlantic stalling and a Euro block,which clearly we are seeing in 4-5 days.

The next thing is to see good ridging north from this mid-latitude high which on earlier runs we had but the 12z`s today have scuppered the pattern at stage 2 throwing more of the jet over the top.

It's a big switch in a few hours and we will have too see if this is a new and milder trend towards a more southerly block.

The only comfort i can take from a cold pov is the development and eventual placement of the block is for next week so still a lot of uncertainty on this.

[Methuselah]

Some great charts tonight for Gav and Gaz. Quite an intense PV developing over Greenland with the jet being driven to Western Russia, potentially exceptionally mild and bringing back those charts from the late 80s winters.

Indeed Ian...But, as with 1962-esque developments, how likely is to actually evolve like that?

[legritter]

The last 3 frames of ECM could very easily look different come 24hrs ,possibly 12 .if a beast is out there it could be a few days yet before we see its snout .At least high pressure is out there and todays data was looking good so lets not give up yet .We cannot expect models to perform at this range in such UNKNOWN territory which is constantly changing .i think the next clue will come in tomorrows met brief in further outlook ,or that could just remain the same ,Have faith ,good synoptics for coldies take a while to Mature .

[SW Saltire]

C'mon folks no point chasing illusory cold the games up for the foreseeable

 

I'm a mega coldie but I'm not blind.

If this was the ECM ens then maybe it would have some credence. For a 'mega coldie' you seen very adverse to seeing any potential in the outlook. Taking all charts at face value is one think but for a few consecutive afternoons after the 'small' model has given it's daily dose of despair you proclaim that it'll all be over if the ECM operational doesn't show an easterly which is completely untrue. Fortunately, upto now the ECM 12z has been very positive for coldies. If the ens remain supportive of a continental feed overall then how can the Scandi high be dead in the water? 

Making such bold claims can only eventually backfire although that's not to say you won't get away with it this time...

[Catacol]

Yup.... Thankfully some of us have learned not to care a jot whether it's a mild, average or cold outcome and to then concern ourselves wIth 12-72hr forecast issues. All interesting whatever the outcome...!

 

Personally I think that 12 - 72 hour forecasting is dull. By then the pattern is set and there is not much mystery to it. If snow is about to fall, or a gale is about to blow, or a scorcher is about to strike - then that is exciting to see it approach and count down to 0. That;s the lamp post watching evening or the one spent staring out at branches as they start to bend... but general forecasting? Only the medium to long range for me. 95% of what happens within the 72 hour range is mundane.

[nick sussex]

Tonights emergency strawclutching model combo comes to you courtesy of the JMA, CMA and BOM!

 

They all show potential and on  a dismal night for coldies in terms of the non-cannon fodder models these at least show some interest.

[stratty]

The last 3 frames of ECM could very easily look different come 24hrs ,possibly 12 .if a beast is out there it could be a few days yet before we see its snout .At least high pressure is out there and todays data was looking good so lets not give up yet .We cannot expect models to perform at this range in such UNKNOWN territory which is constantly changing .i think the next clue will come in tomorrows met brief in further outlook ,or that could just remain the same ,Have faith ,good synoptics for coldies take a while to Mature .

......and Mother Nature has a way of balancing things out: so if it is to be mild for a time, then hopefully the swing will be the other way and we get our snow after that!

[Methuselah]

If this was the ECM ens then maybe it would have some credence. For a 'mega coldie' you seen very adverse to seeing any potential in the outlook. Taking all charts at face value is one think but for a few consecutive afternoons after the 'small' model has given it's daily dose of despair you proclaim that it'll all be over if the ECM operational doesn't show an easterly which is completely untrue. Fortunately, upto now the ECM 12z has been very positive for coldies. If the ens remain supportive of a continental feed overall then how can the Scandi high be dead in the water? 

Making such bold claims can only eventually backfire although that's not to say you won't get away with it this time...

Tbh SW, I'd give it little credence even if it were the ECM...Even with all three main models in agreement, things still often go pear-shaped. 

[Cloud 10]

A couple of charts from tonight's JMA and BOM to calm the nerves a little.

 

JMA 192..  BOM 240..

 

 

 

great avatar ABNS.

Edited December 3, 2013 by Cloud 10

[NorthernRab]

C'mon folks no point chasing illusory cold the games up for the foreseeable

 

I'm a mega coldie but I'm not blind.

 

Purga, without meaning to sound rude: under high pressure, upper air is not reflective of conditions at the surface during winter. I've said this to you countless times, as have many other members, but it doesn't seem to be sinking in. Almost everything points to high pressure in the medium term, the position of the high will determine whether or not it will be cold, not the upper air temps, so to post one set of ensembles for one location from one run and to say the "games up for the foreseeable" is deeply flawed in my opinion. 

 

For example, if you look at my signature, see that -13.4'C recording at my location in 2007? These were the upper air temps for the time:

 

 

 

Warm uppers does not automatically mean mild weather, it's December not July! 

[terrier]

Horrible charts from a coldies prospective. But at least we can all save on our heating. And get around at Xmas. If the models are correct this evening rjs forecast for dec looks to be going to the script so far. But don't fancy temps of 15c Xmas day. Think we need to sit back now and see if charts look better in a week to 10 days time. Certainly not going to get hung up on Ian's updates. As if we think meto are onto something it could all end in tears on here again.

[winterof79]

Well a poor show from the ECM tonight http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif!!  ala feb 98 there http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119980214.gif!!

Both charts sucking up warm moisture laden air from the very bowels of the Congo basin.

 

Yes no way back from that situation ??

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-11-14-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-11-30-0-0.png

 

Never going to happen as it has before....but the weather does change...quickly

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1986/archives-1986-12-29-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archives-1987-1-7-0-0.png

Edited December 3, 2013 by winterof79

[stratty]

A couple of charts from tonight's JMA and BOM to calm the nerves a little.

 

JMA 192..J192-21.gif  BOM 240..bom-0-240.png

 

 

 

great avatar ABNS.

.............you sharing Frosty's happy pills Cloud?

 

ps just to have a bit of a laugh......as we coldies need one tonight, you ever seen these? People with bad double-barrelled names!?? (sorry ......way off-topic! lol)

 

 

Edited December 3, 2013 by stratty

[IDO]

I think we are going to go through a mild spell, and cold, if it arrives will be at the earliest in the last third of December.

The GFS ens MJO forecast is a strong signal:

The composite for stage 3 in December:

Pretty much what the charts are showing.

Weak Stage 4 MJO (mid month) and we are more likely to see troughing over the US aligned with a positive EPO and there is likely to be more amplification downstream to allow another shot at cold.

[Catacol]

Fantasy Island seems to have been towed into the western Med at least on the GEM, even I don't expect that to verify (14 C uppers? c'mon now). Very mild is the theme however on almost all guidance and I would expect that signal to remain strong until New Years. I could imagine some 10 C uppers and surface 15 C readings at some times during mid to late December. That 14 C upper would bring about record high values at the surface, above 18 C where the air mixes. An inversion fog under that could still give 10 C at the surface.

 

The most hopeful thing I could say for winter weather lovers is that patterns often reload after 20-30 days and if the current short-range pattern reloads somewhat further south, then a Jan 1987 type flip-flop would be easy to imagine, let's say if a low dive-bombs across the UK into central Europe on a track 200 miles south of this one coming along, around the first week of January, then the Atlantic would not find it as easy to push into the void and even if retrograde index was not overly high, you could get a good Scandinavian block setting up. So I would say, expect some good things in the period 5-20 Jan with 8-12 Jan the heart of the window of opportunity from my research. Before that, any notable records likely to be on the high side.

 

As I've said in a thread somewhere yesterday Roger - I'm fascinated to see how your December forecast fronts up against reality. There is a fair amount of data mid month pointing to height rises too far north to suggest mild to very mild - but if your methodology should trump all the models then hats off to you once again. What looks very likely is that after a dull week this week we finish with a short sharp blast of cold before tapping into a much milder feed for at least 72 hours. Beyond that we will have to see whether pressure builds north or sinks south ala ECM 12z. Personally I cannot believe that the strat charts screaming height rises to our north and east can be completely wrong. Trop models often misfire, but the strat predictions tend to be less variable, If we get heights as far south as the ECM has it this afternoon then we truly will have a bit of a "disconnect" between the two. Either that or the strat models are going to look very different in the morning!

[SW Saltire]

A couple of charts from tonight's JMA and BOM to calm the nerves a little.

 

JMA 192..J192-21.gif  BOM 240..bom-0-240.png

 

 

 

great avatar ABNS.

The BOM is fed with similar data to the UKMO is it not? with lower resolution... so therefore that is what the UKMO would go onto show -flawless logic

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSE8OFyOmexvE_gjU2sp_3Xr4Dfr8_3ErnJ4cl8-HP7kTX19N4a7g

Edited December 3, 2013 by SW Saltire

[Catacol]

Indeed Ian...But, as with 1962-esque developments, how likely is to actually evolve like that?

 

Yes indeed. QBO was different and we dont have strat charts for 1962, but I wonder if those who woke up on 8th December 1962 knew what was on the horizon. This must have been a rather pleasant and mild day back then as heights tried to build towards Scandy.