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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)

144 and ECM does look slightly more amplified than the other 2 " big " models

At 168 ECM again looks more amplified..

216 not pretty for coldies.

Edited by TSNWK
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LomondSnowstorm Accomplished

LomondSnowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
Posted

Look how tight is the isobars!! Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

That is one beast of the storm. Worst than St Jude's? probably or perhaps not. I really think our northern counterparts will get used to it.

 

Was St Jude's the wee breeze you had in October?Posted Image  Seriously though, 80mph gusts are progged for Glasgow and Edinburgh for Thursday morning, we have had a few of these in the last few years (2011 was particularly bad for storms) but hurricane-force gusts in major cities and along busy (and quite elevated) motorways between the two are still pretty concerning.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

People seem to be pinning a lot on the meto extended outlook ie scan blocking ete.Im guessing its a trend like most others and as been said before look at the trends but stick to the reliable to avoid a let down.The fickleness of the fax charts should show folks that!Anyway ecm looks like been as flat as a blade in a play off final in regards a push north east ete with all the usuall fluctuations taken into acc and on this one run.imoPosted Image

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pip22 Accomplished

pip22

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, warm weather not too hot, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
Posted

Was St Jude's the wee breeze you had in October?Posted Image  Seriously though, 80mph gusts are progged for Glasgow and Edinburgh for Thursday morning, we have had a few of these in the last few years (2011 was particularly bad for storms) but hurricane-force gusts in major cities and along busy (and quite elevated) motorways between the two are still pretty concerning.

I thought the lowlands are gonna be sheltered from the thursday's storm. Is it not?

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NorthernRab Accomplished

NorthernRab

Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
Posted

I thought the lowlands are gonna be sheltered from the thursday's storm. Is it not?

 

Almost everywhere in Scotland is currently forecast to see gusts between 70-80mph, worse in some locations - it's looking like it could potentially be a big one! 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Quite often we see a quick flip with a few runs from cold to warm looking mid range charts, I wouldn't be at all surprised if this time tomorrow we are looking at the high being further North, and the UK starting to tap into E/SE winds....

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

A few very interesting GEFS 12z perturbations this evening, P19 strikes again, just like it did on the 6z, some very wintry long term solutions, let's hope there are a lot more popping up in the coming days and make the mean look wintry.

post-4783-0-45807800-1386096406_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-96499900-1386096412_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-40260000-1386096420_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-29165400-1386096427_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-39346000-1386096436_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-90885200-1386096446_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-13587000-1386096458_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-70951700-1386096466_thumb.pn

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Unfortunately the last 2 ECM runs have left a piece of the polar Vortex over Northern Russia/Finland, this prevents the Russian/Siberian high from linking up with our high. This pretty much leaves us with the Arnold schwarzenegger of mid latitude blocks

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Quite often we see a quick flip with a few runs from cold to warm looking mid range charts, I wouldn't be at all surprised if this time tomorrow we are looking at the high being further North, and the UK starting to tap into E/SE winds....

Its gonna have to flip as the 12z from ECM is a mile away from a Scandi High/cold:T216:

post-14819-0-29226600-1386096657_thumb.g

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

It's Mugly's ghost...Posted Image 

I thought it was a camel, it has the humpPosted Image

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted

Some ugly output from the ECM too this evening. Unless you like Bartletts of course.

 

post-7292-0-36205200-1386096635_thumb.gipost-7292-0-80625000-1386096637_thumb.gi

 

 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Dreadful ECM Op tonight, no way of dressing up any other way.Posted Image  It is more GFS than UKMO at 144 though thankfully but I would rather it agreed with the UKMO. The UKMO is the only model that has been rock solid today and I would hazarrd a guess that this ECM is almost a mild outlier for London later - if not then our Scandi high may well be in trouble. 

No need for knee jerk reactions though until we see the ensembles. If they still cluster for cold and the Op is very much heading toward the mild side then it is a case of wait and see what tomorrow brings, especially the UKMO.

Edited by Mucka
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Quite often we see a quick flip with a few runs from cold to warm looking mid range charts, I wouldn't be at all surprised if this time tomorrow we are looking at the high being further North, and the UK starting to tap into E/SE winds....

Well if that ecm 240 chart flips and moves north in to scand it will be slated even more than gfs!Pv really ramping up too and all told today as been poor from a cold perspective.Trends,potential whatever spin you put on it its poor mo wise.Posted Image

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Some ugly output from the ECM too this evening. Unless you like Bartletts of course.

 

Posted ImageECH1-192.gifPosted ImageECH1-216.gif

I think the Ecm 12z has the hump tonight, actually the 00z wasn't much cop either.

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

Not a bad ECM, remember folks too early yet really for cold, this side of Xmas, ECM tonight looks dry, probably as rare as snow to be dry in Dec,

 

I am a snow fan of course but, cold normally does not arrive until mid Jan

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Not a bad ECM, remember folks too early yet really for cold, this side of Xmas, ECM tonight looks dry, probably as rare as snow to be dry in Dec,

 

I am a snow fan of course but, cold normally does not arrive until mid Jan

not badPosted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Did Freddie Kruger gain access to the ECM ? As CW mentioned a piece of the PV gets left behind to the ne and high pressure limpets itself to central Europe.

 

If the ECM and GFS operationals are correct then todays ECM32 is cat litter! Positive anomalies replaced by negative ones in 24hours. No point trying to beat around the bush here the ECM is hideous for cold.

 

In terms of its own ensemble suite looking at the earlier Dutch ensembles this run sits amongst approx. 5 out of the 50 ensemble members. That's not saying it won't verify, we'll have to wait till tomorrow, for coldies out there lets hope its a rogue one off!

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Ummm.. After seeing this evenings big 3 I have to say that for coldies it is not a good look, tonight's emc must be its least cold friendly option for a while. Snippets from the metoffice keep the cold option open I guess for tonight..

Funny! when the models were looking cold last week, I took the snippets from fergie as kinda of pulling in the reigns a little. Today's fergie snippet seemed quiet postive for coldies, and what do the models do....

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