Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Mucka]

GFS 18z has a period of snow for Central Eastern England on Friday, probably be gone next run though

 

[MKN]

Just get that feeling from the charts tonight that we could be seeing very little in the way of wintry outlook for at least the next 10 days at least. Let's hope for better come jan. Because dec is looking very uninspiring in my eyes.

Much as I thought 2/3 days ago tbh. This pattern following the short northerly is something that would put an end to winter had it been around 1st of Feb. Thankfully it isn't so plenty of time for things to improve later on.

[mpkio2]

Barbecue summer, better late than never.

Don't you mean a Barbecue "Winter"? lol

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

can one of you clever fellas try a pattern match with the upper air pattern shown below, just for amusement?http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Screaming zonality isn't it Ian ?!!!!

[pip22]

GFS 18z has a period of snow for Central Eastern England on Friday, probably be gone next run though

 

I think that is the warm front, so we could see some snow before it turns back to rain. Better than nothing I suppose.

[DAVID SNOW]

We just having a chuckle on phone with UKMO about what certain newspapers will do to 'square' their recent/ongoing/interminable editorial line of late, versus the 12C Theta-W approaching Scotland in the UKMO-GM at T+144... ;-)

Could it be " severe cold and blizzards this weekend will give way to a less severe spell for a few days before a return to an extremely severe cold and snowy spell on Christmas day"

[Timmytour]

Models continue to paint a notably dry outlook, indeed this is becoming a very dry period for the time of year, unusually so.

I can't help thinking it's connected with the recent Environment Agency's warning .. 

 "Parts of England are facing an "increased likelihood" of flooding this winter following a wet October.

The Environment Agency warned that the west of the country was most at risk after "persistent" wet weather had left the ground very wet.

A strong westerly jet stream is expected to "dominate" through much of November bringing bands of rain, the agency said."

Which of course always reminds one of the classic April 2012 headline

Drought may last until Christmas: Environment Agency

coming as it did before one of the wettest summers in living memory

Edited December 3, 2013 by Timmytour

[Gael_Force]

can one of you clever fellas try a pattern match with the upper air pattern shown below, just for amusement?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

NOAA do it for you -it is in the upper air tools section.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11

[Ali1977]

I wonder if any signs of that high moving towards Scandy on this run....you never know!!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

I have recently been checking the NAO forecast over the past few days and for the third day in a row more and more members are pointing to a negative NAO around the middle of December. Whether this will have a direct effect on the UK is unknown, something worth watching though IMO.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

[The Enforcer]

On the Jet stream charts for 7 days from now the angle that the Jet is coming off the eastern US seaboard suggests that it might push SE of the UK in the longer term, which would allow higher level blocking to become established - so one to monitor.

[snowmadchrisuk]

The 18z is the worse of the lot for the Northerly, The cold uppers never reach the South and they have moderated across most of England by Friday lunchtime ..... Scotland only event, even the rain probably won't make it down to the South coast ... 

Main Model watching now will be watching our high pressure move about and hope it will ridge North at some point soon . 

[johnholmes]

NOAA do it for you -it is in the upper air tools section.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11

 

thanks GF but it is not the synoptic NOAA output I have quoted but the NOAA 8-14 anomaly. The link you give, although it might be me, does not do what I would like done-if that makes sense?

 

ignore me the bumbling old idiot had not looked properly-thanks

Edited December 3, 2013 by johnholmes

[Continental Climate]

It's enough to send shivers down the spine http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png!!! Have the models now caught on to what the teleconnections have been telling us for a while!!!

[Great Plum]

It's enough to send shivers down the spine http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1321.png!!! Have the models now caught on to what the teleconnections have been telling us for a while!!!

At least it will be mild!!http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn13217.pngYuck!However , the high is further north on this run...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png Edited December 3, 2013 by Great Plum

[Cloud 10]

can one of you clever fellas try a pattern match with the upper air pattern shown below, just for amusement?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

I'm not in the "clever fellas" bracket,but how about this from 1978?

 

 

 

I have a fixation about the winter of 78/79 at the moment so it was fresh in my mind. 

[damianslaw]

Well most long range forecasts have not suggested that December will be anything special for wintry weather anyway.  The main hope is for January and February.  The way I see it is that if we get any decent cold snaps/spells between now and New Year at least, it will be a bonus.

 

Hope mods don't mind me responding to this, not really on topic, but worth remembering how December has often fayred in the not too distant future i.e. pre 08.

 

Yes December is much less likely to deliver wintry weather than Jan, Feb and even March. Recent Decembers have been quite unusual with much cold snowy weather (though we haven't been spared very mild weather neither, run up to christmas 08, early Dec 09, second half of both Dec 11 and 12 in particular). It has to be said the second half of Dec 09 and whole of Dec 10 saw very unusual synoptics for the time of year - quite exceptional and not the norm. I always say winter doesn't usually bite until after christmas, any cold before christmas is always a bonus - countryfolklore backs this up.

 

Going back to the 80's we saw a run of mild/very mild Decembers followed by cold/very cold weather in Jan and Feb, look at Dec 82, 83, 84, 85, 86 for evidence. Admittedly this wasn't the case with 87,88 and 89 - gosh the 80's were very poor for wintry weather in Dec, only 81 bucked the trend. Looking at the 90's and 00's prior to 08, only 95 and 96 brought nationwide lengthy cold/wintry weather in December for lengthy periods. Some years brought short sharp shocks, latter part of 93, 00, 01 and 05 for instance. Whilst others delivered cold high pressure scenarios at some stage, as recent as 06, 07, but also 92 and 02, or a minor snowy blip example Dec 8 1990, christmas day 04 in the north.

 

December 10 is also a case in point in itself - wintry weather quickly dissapeared and we saw a very mild 2 month period from second week of Jan. Quite similiar to Dec 81 and 96 which were followed by mild/very mild 2 month spells from mid Jan with very little in the way of wintriness.

[johnholmes]

I'm not in the "clever fellas" bracket,but how about this from 1978?

 

archivesnh-1978-12-6-12-0.png

 

 

I have a fixation about the winter of 78/79 at the moment so it was fresh in my mind. 

 

 

not too far out is it?

[bluearmy]

whist naefs in deep fi is not consistent enough for me to take a signal from it, i note ecm extended ens again drifts those high anomolys towards greenland from our rather large nw european block. not particularly strong but enough to keep me interested as the p/v stretches across to siberia but from a position northwest of hudsons.  that should be far enough away to allow things to develop nicely this side of the NH. patience will be needed. no sign of any quick route to deep cold.

[chionomaniac]

I'm not in the "clever fellas" bracket,but how about this from 1978?

 

archivesnh-1978-12-6-12-0.png

 

 

I have a fixation about the winter of 78/79 at the moment so it was fresh in my mind. 

That's my primary analog year from the winter forecast.

[lorenzo]

I have recently been checking the NAO forecast over the past few days and for the third day in a row more and more members are pointing to a negative NAO around the middle of December. Whether this will have a direct effect on the UK is unknown, something worth watching though IMO.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

It will if hopefully we end up with something like the mean, from mid FI to extreme FI.

 

Control run, not so bullish. 

 

Reforecast product also hints at the same, although neutral NAO will look appealing after that week or so of heavily positive NAO.

[TSNWK]

Nothing of note from the 18z,maybe some subtle signs of the high being very slightly further north east, but very small if anything.

Next please.

Night folks

[bradymk]

Poor ECM op but ECM ensemble does not support op. Still a good cluster of colder members longer term. Op clearly way off towards end of run compared to mean.

    

ENS not quite as cold for London but not many mild members there towards the end. Mean around 5c for max temp, 1c min temp by 16th

Still waiting for ECM ENS wind chart to update unfortunately but earlier ENS run showed majority of members favoring a SE/E flow.

 

CFS still seeing a v cold period after around 16th December 

 

Week 3 chart definitely hinting at a possibly easterly, v cold across the south. This continuing into week 4 but milder weather potentially approaching from west, could be an end to a cold spell or a battleground scenario. Only guides obviously

 

Edited December 3, 2013 by bradythemole

[Cloud 10]

That's my primary analog year from the winter forecast.

 

It was the unusually high AO index for November this year which got my interest in 1978,as this is the year

that comes closest.

 

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table

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Does this show a Tropical Continental air source for the UK?