Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[weatherguy]

Latest CFS IS A BEAUTY!

 

Chartgasm!

 

To be fair though, the CFS has been churning out charts like that periodically for a good while now, I'd take that with a truck load of salt 

 

I'm feeling like taking a few day break from serious model watching, as I can't see much of interest after this toppler.  HP looks set to dominate for the next week or so, with any significant cold coming after this...Will hope to return to the sight of our HP being dragged north east and delivering us some more significant cold from the east...Oh what I'd give for a set up like the CFS shows there! 

[weirpig]

Latest CFS IS A BEAUTY!!!! 

 

what a difference 10 days makes  lol very unlikely to verify  but lovely to look at. serious cold from that chart.

[weirpig]

Indeed, a stonker in it's own right - we can but dream. I'll wait until T24 ish..

T24!!  Way Fl 

[Joe Levy]

Latest CFS IS A BEAUTY!!!! 

Not saying that this chart will verify, but I am meant to be catching a train back to London for the holidays that day. It will be Friday 13th I guess...

[Tony27]

that CFS chart looks a world away from the GFS and ECM for that date 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Terrible 0z runs for cold.

I think we would have to see some pretty  drastic changes very soon in the models if there is going to be any high latitude induced cold this side of Christmas.We are very very close to being able to write off the first half of December ....

I think its very possible the longer range models have underestimated this PV and associated energy.

[winterof79]

Terrible 0z runs for cold.

I think we would have to see some pretty  drastic changes very soon in the models if there is going to be any high latitude induced cold this side of Christmas.We are very very close to being able to write off the first half of December ....

I think its very possible the longer range models have underestimated this PV and associated energy.

I may have this wrong but i see signs of height rises to our  e/n/e

UKMO http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013120400/UN144-21.GIF?04-06

GEM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=180&mode=0&carte=1

ECM http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120400/ECH1-168.GIF?04-12

GFS having none of it so far.It may be a painful transition to see unfold for some.

Edited December 4, 2013 by winterof79

[terrier]

Horrible outlook this morning. Think we can now safely write off the first half of dec. thankfully we will all save on our heating. Because the outlook is awful for cold on today's output

[Great Plum]

Horrible outlook this morning. Think we can now safely write off the first half of dec. thankfully we will all save on our heating. Because the outlook is awful for cold on today's output

Charts and evidence please sir - at least back up your assertions...This doesn't look all that warm to me for most...http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

[That ECM]

Horrible outlook this morning. Think we can now safely write off the first half of dec. thankfully we will all save on our heating. Because the outlook is awful for cold on today's output

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2953/ECH1-216_gei6.GIFIf people can not see the potential from a chart like this then I am not sure what they are looking at! UKMO at t 144 is fine, we don't know where it will go from there. I admire people who have a go at making LRF but I don't think it admirable to see a set of output and then self congratulate themselves with I told you so posts. In a week or two there could be a lot of silly looking people on here. Not because their LRF went wrong but because they have kept telling us" told you so".

[Jason M]

The charts this morning are even worse than last nights IMHO. Its rare to see all the main models agreeing across just about every timescale. Normally I'd say that writing off a number of weeks based on a couple of runs is wrong headed, but looking at the output this morning I think that's the only possible conclusion. In essence this is a Bartlett like set up IMHO and its a very difficult pattern to break out of.

I suppose the one straw to clutch is that the output has changed significantly since Sunday and could change again, but the level of agreement is staggering really as it's basically across all models and almost all ensembles.

Some on here slate GFS but in my view it seems to have performed strongly of late. It's been churning these charts out relentlessly for days.

Its rare a chart verifies at ten days but this morning may prove the exception.

[cooling climate]

Have to say big, big kudos to the GFS for its modeling of the low coming off

the eastern seaboard. Very little amplification and the energy moving east

rather than north. Not often the GFS is makes the right call over the euros

and NOAA for all it criticism.

 

On to the models and the UKMO throws a big curve ball this morning with a

big split flow in the atlantic and the jet traveling north/northeast up the western

side of the UK which would promote further height rises to the northeast.

A very, very good chart but is it correct.

[bluearmy]

Horrible outlook this morning. Think we can now safely write off the first half of dec. thankfully we will all save on our heating. Because the outlook is awful for cold on today's output

Maybe for you, but not for us 'darn sarf' a few days next week apart. (prob not for you either but you are a hardier bunch up there)

[Duane S.]

I've been keen on a Mid December - Xmas Easterly setting up since  the start of November, however as the window of opportunity nears I am becoming less convinced we will see it now. Certainly charts like the ECM@168 and the UKMO@144 are brimming with potential but with the main thrust of the vortex moving back West over Greenland I think there will be too much energy left over Scandinavia leaving a pretty highly positive AO signature. Wave activity will probably struggle to impact the vortex I suspect this side of Xmas as well.

 

I don't buy the Bartlett outcome that is already being banded around I see but I can certainly see a Euro high solution with southerlies for all hanging around for longer than it's welcome.

 

A decent outcome is still possible as a surge of WAA over the UK looks more likely than not now, decent potential for some fun and games following on from that is clearly there.

 

And the really good news is we are only just into the 4th day of winter!

Edited December 4, 2013 by s4lancia

[rory o gorman]

The GFS has nailed a number of dynamic system in the U.S over the autumn from about 7-10 days out . Clearly the algorithm has been enhanced  recently or data feed has improved with more NAM style input. Pattern does appear locked with a very strong advection of warmth, D.P's approaching 10 c near Iceland and 546 (500-100mb)dam breaking into the Arctic.  

 

With such amplification though chances of a easterly are not as far gone as many are making it out to be. Subtle differences in the trough ejecting from the eastern seaboard early next week or energy slipping into Europe  and things could change real fast . As a poster above alluded to this is far better than a flat active westerly pattern.  

[Frosty.]

For the north of the uk (especially scotland) it's looking very wintry on thurs & fri with snow showers and sharp frosts as bitter arctic air digs south, however, the gfs 00z op run has robbed the south of anything cold, bitterly disappointing for southerners, bitter for the scots.

Edited December 4, 2013 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

I've been keen on a Mid December - Xmas Easterly setting up since  the start of November, however as the window of opportunity nears I am becoming less convinced we will see it now. Certainly charts like the ECM@168 and the UKMO@144 are brimming with potential but with the main thrust of the vortex moving back West over Greenland I think there will be too much energy left over Scandinavia leaving a pretty highly positive AO signature. Wave activity will probably struggle to impact the vortex I suspect this side of Xmas as well. I don't buy the Bartlett outcome that is already being banded around I see but I can certainly see a Euro high solution with southerlies for all hanging around for longer than it's welcome. A decent outcome is still possible as a surge of WAA over the UK looks more likely than not now, decent potential for some fun and games following on from that is clearly there. And the really good news is we are only just into the 4th day of winter!

according to the deep fi gfs strat forecasts, something is brewing high in the strat. Even if it verified, it might stay there so just of note at the moment. The gefs certainly becoming less interested in the scandi ridge persisting through week 2.

[Radiating Dendrite]

ECM seems a little better in the later frames than some of its most recent runs.

 

I am still a little concerned that any blocking over Scandi will not be far enough north to deliver us a decent easterly.

 

The models are playing around with different ideas in FI at the moment, a sure sign of a possible pattern change.

[Frosty.]

Snowy in the far north tomorrow with blizzard like conditions at times as the snow showers become more frequent and merge together, 15-20 cm on higher ground probably with deep drifts.

[Polar Maritime]

ECM seems a little better in the later frames than some of its most recent runs.

 

I am still a little concerned that any blocking over Scandi will not be far enough north to deliver us a decent easterly.

 

The models are playing around with different ideas in FI at the moment, a sure sign of a possible pattern change.

 

Correct, and until this has been resolved people should hold off writing off the next couple weeks for cold weather. Statements such as "no other possibilities"  based on only a few runs are jumping the gun a little. Even the METO are leaning to the East during the run up to Christmas.

[shedhead]

A taste of winter tomorrow for much of Scotland, but in truth the much vaunted Arctic blast looks even weaker and more wobbly this morning, with the main feature going to be the potentially damaging winds. When we think back to where we were with this N'erly some 5 or 6 days ago, what now looks likely to transpire can quite rightly be described as bitterly disappointing for most. 

 

Looking forward, lovers of mild weather will be screaming BANK at almost every run the models churn out atm, with the early part of next week in particular still expected to see some unseasonally high temps...the only real difference this morning being over a wide area rather than localised. 

 

No doubt someone will manage to find some 'cold straws' to clutch this morning, but I must admit I'm struggling, with the only positive for me being plenty of dry weather and no raging zonality...yet!

Edited December 4, 2013 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

A bitterly cold start to friday oooooooop north with further heavy snow showers, eventually becoming restricted to the far northeast of the uk as the arctic airflow is shunted further east, what a shocker for the south though. 

[Frosty.]

Correct, and until this has been resolved people should hold off writing off the next couple weeks for cold weather. Statements such as "no other possibilities"  based on only a few runs are jumping the gun a little. Even the METO are leaning to the East during the run up to Christmas.

Fully agree PM...the cold will come soon.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Correct, and until this has been resolved people should hold off writing off the next couple weeks for cold weather. Statements such as "no other possibilities"  based on only a few runs are jumping the gun a little. Even the METO are leaning to the East during the run up to Christmas.

Agreed , a few days ago this wkend was looking very cold and snowy for some , now it's a brief cold snap for the north over 24hrs thurs afternoon and fri morning , with westerly air under high pressure for the wkend dominating . The models are doing what they do all the time , over reacting to a signal , of milder air early next wk , and we have folks talking as if it's a "done deal" which is bizarre , wasn't this very cold wkend a "done deal" ? The scandi ridge is showing signs of showing its hand , but not yet , and IMO it is a good 12-15 days away . Which is what Ian f talked about . I'm going for 3 days of mild 850hpa's next week , before a decline from a southeasterly air , but no 'Deep cold' until 15th . But it will come IMHO.

[UV-RAY]

Correct, and until this has been resolved people should hold off writing off the next couple weeks for cold weather. Statements such as "no other possibilities"  based on only a few runs are jumping the gun a little. Even the METO are leaning to the East during the run up to Christmas.

That is one crumb of comfort for us coldies as the models have been very volatile over the last week or two swinging from one scenario to another, in fact this is the worst I've seen them perform past the +120 mark.