Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Don]

I've just spotted February being written off on the forums. Just need to find someone doing the same for March and I'll have a bingo! 

 

Just out of interest, who has been writing February off?

[Don]

I've said it before and I'll say it again the cold snowy spells in winter 09 / 10 and 10 / 11 (more so late November and December) have sent some people's expectations sky high

 

They certainly have.  It seems that at times, anything less than exceptional is no good anymore!  I must admit though, I'm starting to get a bit twitchy about this Winter now.

[Gord]

Just out of interest, who has been writing February off?

 

Can't remember without going back through the model thread. It was just a passing comment anyway...I'm probably being unfair to that person.

 

During the second week of December, I asked someone (might have been Karyo) their reasoning for writing all of December off. To his credit he gave me quite a detailed explanation explaining his thoughts and he has turned out to be right...so full credit there. So I am trying to keep an open mind when reading these comments. I was a bit too scared to ask for an explanation this time though!

 

(...and I don't think it was Karyo making the bold prediction this time!)

Edited December 27, 2013 by Gord

[Don]

Can't remember without going back through the model thread. It was just a passing comment anyway...I'm probably being unfair to that person.

 

During the second week of December, I asked someone (might have been Karyo) their reasoning for writing all of December off. To his credit he gave me quite a detailed explanation explaining his thoughts and he has turned out to be right...so full credit there. So I am trying to keep an open mind when reading these comments. I was a bit too scared to ask for an explanation this time though!

 

(...and I don't think it was Karyo making the bold prediction this time!)

 

No worries, thanks.

[MP-R]

I've said it before and I'll say it again the cold snowy spells in winter 09 / 10 and 10 / 11 (more so late November and December) have sent some people's expectations sky high

 

There are of course those who expect something like that all the time, which quite frankly is silly, but then are those such as myself that expect a cold spell of some sort in each winter month. An average British winter has a cold spell in each winter month. 02-03 and 03-04 which I would consider average British winters featured a cold spell in December, January and February. Bar 2011, this December looks like being one of the very few without any 'cold' for many.

[Tony27]

I really wish we could write off the whole winter as having no really cold spell but it isn't going to happen, we will get some cold and snow at some point, just the same as we get a bit of high pressure and sun some time in summer, it is just that some peoples expectations on here are plain ridiculous.

difference is we are guaranteed to get some warm sunny days in summer, except in lerwick, snow is not guaranteed in winter esp lowland southern england

[Average Joe]

I really wish we could write off the whole winter as having no really cold spell but it isn't going to happen, we will get some cold and snow at some point, just the same as we get a bit of high pressure and sun some time in summer, it is just that some peoples expectations on here are plain ridiculous.

Having spent an Xmas with water lapping all around and no 'lecky' you'll forgive me if the thought of more disruption thanks to snow is not high on my new year wish list!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Dec and most of Jan, are really just a continuation of autumn, we will not see any cold before 20th Jan, that is normal really, still hoping for a snowy/cold winter late Jan to mid April

[Tony27]

what are you on mate, you keep saying winter is feb to april? i don't think i have ever seen snow stick around for a week in march and april, so i hope we see some snow in january which is the peak of winter and although snow is never common in winter here, it is far more common in mid jan than mid april

 

even last march the bit of snow i had was gone by the afternoon and it was supposed to be extreme for march, snow in march and april is way way overrated, yes you could argue HLB is more likey in march and april but long lasting snow cover and ice days is not so i hope it snows in january or before mid feb

 

just seen the ecm 12z  which is crap so that's why im in a strop, though i see some are saying the ECM has potential at 240hrs, well it is just that potential im afraid we have been here many times before, 

Edited December 27, 2013 by Tony27

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I like to stick to GFS, I find ECM a 'wild' inaccurate model, just like the thing if its right this time, I still do not expect any snow before Feb here,

[conor123]

Here's Telford's weather ranking's for this year, *warning* not a pretty picture after July :lol:

 

Jan: 8.0

Feb: 6.5

Mar: 8.5

Apr: 2.0

May: 5.5

June: 4.5

July: 9.0

Aug: 3.0

Sept: 3.5

Oct: 1.0

Nov: 1.0

Dec: 3.0

 

Edited December 27, 2013 by conor123

[Bradowl]

Still no sign of any serious cold weather, only high hills in north will see temporary snow fall as winds turn slightly more to north westerly on occasions.

I can still see some southern areas seeing little or no snow this winter.

[JOPRO]

The ignore/block button, the best tool on here.

[Tony27]

off topic, but i never put anyone on ignore even if they do my head in, i don't even put frosty on my ignore list despite his daily express like posts if a half baked northerly toppler is on the way, it's just a forum 

Edited December 28, 2013 by Tony27

[Richie V]

I'm in zonal weather heaven. I have had to wait since 1991 for weather train like this. Definately the turn of the mildies thus far this season. It's good weather for my spruce, pine and fir saplings. Keeps the heating bills way down too.

[Tamara]

I am quite sure that members of the METO team themselves, as humans, have their own individual preferences but it doesn't stop them being objective in providing the service they do, Similarly many well known BBC presenters are just as well known for their grins,winks, nods etc on screen when forecasting as certain weather events are unfolding and that brings colour to the job they do and reflects their personailities.Thank god for that!

 

Fergieweather f.e is well known for his appreciation of storms f.e amongst other varieties of weather (not snow). Rob McK was eagerly anticipated on the telly as the blue colours were heading east from Europe as easterlies arrived(no internet then, which in some ways added to the magic of the suspense elements)

 

So its perfectly natural to have preferences and this place for sure would be devoid of occupants if everyone was cloned robotically exactly the same. Yet alongside this, it is also perfectly possible to remain objective about model/weather pattern outlook if the personal aim is to test learning, measure accuracy and provide useful information and suggestions that hopefully benefit others.

 

Actually, this is where the personal preference, even, can get rewarded anyway - because f.e I remember how satisfying it felt for someone as ordinary as me to try and document the lead up to the SSW that occured in 2009 with Chiono (and others)

- who as we all know has gone on to become such an excellent source of expert reference these days (amongst many other experts on here of course). Seeing the SSW happen, as unprecedented as it then seemed under the background circumstances, was a very rewarding end product - plus the amount learned from it was another form of satisfaction. So, weather preference and weather objectivity CAN also go very much hand in hand.

[Continental Climate]

Anyone got any news on madden? haven't heard much from him since his 'horror' winter prediction in the express!! Maybe even the gutter press are catching on that he is a complete waste of space when it comes to weather prediction.

 

Also that VOGAN bloke the lorry driver has been pretty quiet too

[Captain Shortwave]

Anyone got any news on madden? haven't heard much from him since his 'horror' winter prediction in the express!! Maybe even the gutter press are catching on that he is a complete waste of space when it comes to weather prediction.

 

Also that VOGAN bloke the lorry driver has been pretty quiet too

Alas

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaHrIp12-14

Still here I'm afraid

[Summer Sun]

Alas

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaHrIp12-14

Still here I'm afraid

 

This is going well: http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/443462/Winter-2013-expected-to-be-worst-since-1947-with-heavy-and-persistent-snow-forecast-for-UK

 

[Gaz1985]

I'm not sure what some people get out of windy wet weather, as a mildie it hasn't been an enjoyable spell of weather the last few weeks and yet more to come it would seem. The last 2 weeks have not been all that mild either, mostly single digit max temps.

[UV-RAY]

I'm not sure what some people get out of windy wet weather, as a mildie it hasn't been an enjoyable spell of weather the last few weeks and yet more to come it would seem. The last 2 weeks have not been all that mild either, mostly single digit max temps.

Indeed, if it's got to be mild then lets have a bit of sunshine rather than storm after storm.

[Continental Climate]

Alas

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaHrIp12-14

Still here I'm afraid

Lord that was painful to watch, probably took about twenty mins to put together!! Lookls like there was a lot of cut and pasting involved, utter tripe!!!

[Dancerwithwings]

Alas

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaHrIp12-14

Still here I'm afraid

Most on here would agree that he's way over the top and yes utter tripe comes to mind, But just this once and maybe only this once, I can't see much wrong in that....

I can't believe i just said that

Or maybe i'm getting desperate

Edited December 29, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[Polar Maritime]

I can not read the tex in the video, it seems very blurred to my eye's. Maybe im not disappointed after Dancers post 

Edited December 29, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[UV-RAY]

I can not read the tex in the video, it seems very blurred to my eye's. Maybe im not disappointed after Dancers post 

Why use white on bloody white, after a minute I had to kick it into touch as it was straining my eyes.