Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Snow Queen one]

Sorry cloud that post is taken lol

[R.P. McMurphy]

In an attempt to discuss the models

 

this is what will hold our high in situ for longer- The energy & subsequent small shortwave at 120 aiming into the high on the Euro heads directly into the block in a NE direction.

 

where as the JMA has it going directly North- this is what we want!

 

Look at that acute angle-

 

JMA12z.jpg

 

S

 

You and Nick should be nominated for Paint awards...

[Frosty.]

Any model that shows cold and snow is good enough for me, be it the boom..bom, jam..jma

 

I remain positive for a cold further outlook with an end to this stormy autumnal weather arriving soon.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Ah Frosty your

[Cloud 10]

  Sod All The Science Its Gonna Snow

 

Blimey,that goes back to the days of Stratos Ferric. 

 

Sorry cloud that post is taken lol

 

You will have to watch out,you could be usurped! 

[texel]

yo cheap heating bills.

[snowblizzard]

News headlines - Polar Vortex plunges South over USA!

 

Temperatures down to -35C in some parts of the mid-West!

 

Has the PV ever plunged South over the UK?

[halny]

News headlines - Polar Vortex plunges South over USA!

 

Temperatures down to -35C in some parts of the mid-West!

 

Has the PV ever plunged South over the UK? 

 

Yes, but low pressure systems in eastern North America tend to bring rather different airmasses.  We have endless ocean to the north and west whereas they have a continent stretching up into the Arctic, so even a mild zonality there typically sees temperatures in the negative double digits for our latitude.

 

It is far, far, far easier for places south of 40 degrees N to get severe winter weather there than it is for us to get it even in Scotland, north of 55 degrees N.  The PV doesn't help us much at all.

Edited January 5, 2014 by halny

[snowblizzard]

Yes, but low pressure systems in eastern North America tend to bring rather different airmasses.  We have endless ocean to the north and west whereas they have a continent stretching up into the Arctic, so even a mild zonality there typically sees temperatures in the negative double digits for our latitude.

 

It is far, far, far easier for places south of 40 degrees N to get severe winter weather there than it is for us to get it even in Scotland, north of 55 degrees N.  The PV doesn't help us much at all.

 

Yes, much as I thought, the dreaded 'Island climate' effect!

 

But surely if it ever dropped down from the NE over Scandinavia there would be less in the way of warm sea track?

Edited January 5, 2014 by snowblizzard

[halny]

Yes, much as I thought, the dreaded 'Island climate' effect!

 

But surely if it ever dropped down from the NE over Scandinavia there would be less in the way of warm sea track?

I mean, essentially what they're getting is blocking to their west, giving them a northerly stretching all the way up to the North Pole.  The Arctic Ocean is frozen on the American side, so it begins to act almost like a continent in itself, and if anything, the air gets colder as it heads south over the higher latitudes of the true continent until it reaches far south enough for the sun angle to begin to warm it up.  By that time, the air is so cold, you can occasionally get -30 degree lows at latitudes equivalent to those of North Africa.We don't have a nearby source region of cold air.  To our NE, the European Arctic remains unfrozen all year, even European Russia is exceedingly mild for its latitude, and Siberia is far too far to our east and partially blocked by the Ural mountains.  The truly cold air has a hard time reaching Eastern Europe and has typically already been modified significantly by the time it reaches Western Russia.  Then it has to travel thousands of miles more over the upper middle latitudes to reach us, getting modified by the sun, the Baltic, the North Sea, the Mediterranean and even the relatively mild Western European continent itself.  So on top of the island effect, we don't even have a very continental continent to our east.  No pressure alignment, no matter how extreme, can get air nearly as cold as what is possible a thousands miles to our south on the other side of the Atlantic.

 

Eastern Europe and parts of Scandinavia, despite generally being quite mild (from a global perspective), do occasionally reach the -30s, and some of our coldest weather ever has been from that continental air making its way west.  That said, it's fairly difficult to establish continental air over Eastern Europe, let alone to get it to retrogress west.  The odds are stacked against us whichever way you look at it.  On the bright side, our northerly latitude means we can get modestly cold air coming in quite easily and even an oceanic northerly can be cold enough to produce snow at lower levels.

[Bobby]

I mean, essentially what they're getting is blocking to their west, giving them a northerly stretching all the way up to the North Pole.  The Arctic Ocean is frozen on the American side, so it begins to act almost like a continent in itself, and if anything, the air gets colder as it heads south over the higher latitudes of the true continent until it reaches far south enough for the sun angle to begin to warm it up.  By that time, the air is so cold, you can occasionally get -30 degree lows at latitudes equivalent to those of North Africa.We don't have a nearby source region of cold air.  To our NE, the European Arctic remains unfrozen all year, even European Russia is exceedingly mild for its latitude, and Siberia is far too far to our east and partially blocked by the Ural mountains.  The truly cold air has a hard time reaching Eastern Europe and has typically already been modified significantly by the time it reaches Western Russia.  Then it has to travel thousands of miles more over the upper middle latitudes to reach us, getting modified by the sun, the Baltic, the North Sea, the Mediterranean and even the relatively mild Western European continent itself.  So on top of the island effect, we don't even have a very continental continent to our east.  No pressure alignment, no matter how extreme, can get air nearly as cold as what is possible a thousands miles to our south on the other side of the Atlantic.

 

Eastern Europe and parts of Scandinavia, despite generally being quite mild (from a global perspective), do occasionally reach the -30s, and some of our coldest weather ever has been from that continental air making its way west.  That said, it's fairly difficult to establish continental air over Eastern Europe, let alone to get it to retrogress west.  The odds are stacked against us whichever way you look at it.  On the bright side, our northerly latitude means we can get modestly cold air coming in quite easily and even an oceanic northerly can be cold enough to produce snow at lower levels.

 

Well explained. Can be a bit like pulling teeth getting cold into this country, yet again I wouldn't want the kind of weather they're getting the US right now nor would many people I imaagine, that's life threatening extreme weather. -10 uppers, daytime maxes of around zero and a good covering of snow for a week is all that's needed to make a lot of people happy here. Our fairly benign climate has a lot of upsides I think though we complain about it a lot!

[Richie V]

I had an outlandish thaught...

You know those huge covers you can get to put over a swimming pools to keep the water warm, we should sew thousands and thousands of them together and lay them out over the entire north atlantic from newfoundland to northern france to create a super land mass. Surely that would cool things down... And..... Back to reality, nice thaught though.

[halny]

When I look at the charts, I often see extreme cold from Canada getting up to the middle of the Atlantic up to about 30W as 850mb temps of -10 or -15C, and even sometimes reaching Ireland as -5C at 850mb.  All we need to do is halve the size of the second largest ocean on the planet, and then even our zonal weather will be snowy a lot of the time, without ever getting too cold.  Seemples, lol.

Edited January 5, 2014 by halny

[Gord]

Think of Vancouver and Seattle who have the whole of the Pacific ruining their winter!

 

And New Zealand being at the recieving end in the opposite direction.

 

Those of us who are downwind of giant oceans have to put up with this I'm afraid.

 

The alternative to covering the Atlantic is by somehow shaking the planet like a giant snowglobe and reversing the prevailing winds. Time for us, north west USA and New Zealand to have a turn at winter! New York and Boston can put up with a winter full of muck off the Atlantic. (Although I apologise to western Africa for the hurricanes they'll have to endure)

Edited January 5, 2014 by Gord

[Bobby]

The GEM is being wheeled out with gusto, uh oh...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS I reckon on the money here, expect ECM 00Z to move towards GFS, would love to be wrong but ECM in FI seems inaccurate a lot

[UV-RAY]

GFS I reckon on the money here, expect ECM 00Z to move towards GFS, would love to be wrong but ECM in FI seems inaccurate a lot

I would have agreed but for the fact that the MetO are singing from the same hymn sheet and i doubt they would be suckered in.

[Blizzardof82]

Coldies don't despair, our time will come

[UV-RAY]

My first real moan of the season is this so here goes. I'm a little disappointed that any projected  cold spell has been put further back towards the start of next month and as it stands we could be looking at a relative rather cold spell than a very cold one, add to that my lack of interest for cold and snow in February  due to only seeing that month deliver the goods three times in over forty years, then this winter would make it three on the trot with little or no snow. Still we can  hope for a February  96, 79 or 47 winter where in this neck of the woods we did rather well.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Summer Sun]

Out of interest when was the last snowy cold February?

[AWD]

Out of interest when was the last snowy cold February?

Bristol had an impressive fall of snow in Feb 2009. 15cm - 20cm widely then. Biggest fall since the turn of the century that was for Bristol. Edited January 6, 2014 by AWD

[Frank Trough]

Out of interest when was the last snowy cold February?

February 2012 had a couple of snow events and a spell of pretty cold weather.....although as a whole it wasn't a month to write home about.

[UV-RAY]

Out of interest when was the last snowy cold February?

February 96 around here, we had 15" of snowfall. Prior to that February 91 brought us 6" but it soon disappeared two days later, then in February 79 we got a 10" dumping with huge drifts which laid on the ground for over 10 days.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Mark Neal.]

February 2009 was impressive here with several heavy falls, 15/20cm. Further Se there was even a thames streamer

[Summer Sun]

Thanks guys