Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Gibby]

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs from the NWP for today Friday January 10th 2014, the report lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

All models show a quieter interlude of weather over the UK for the next 48-60 hours. A weakening trough is shown to cross East over the UK today with some rain but this should pass without much enhancement to the flooding already in place and will be followed by colder and frosty conditions by night and sunny spells by day through Saturday and the start of Sunday. Then an active front attached to a deep Low in the mid Atlantic swings East across the UK overnight Sunday and into Monday with some heavy rain in places followed by showers across Southern and Western areas.

 

GFS then shows Low pressure to the NW sliding gently South across the UK through the week filling slowly. This means there will be plenty of rain again next week with temperatures close to average though rather colder in the far NE at times. Through the extended section of the run this morning the weather maintains this very changeable and unsettled pattern in temperatures never far from average though a drier period is shown for a time later.

 

The GFS Ensembles show things turning colder on recent standards and certainly cold enough for hill snow at times. However, deep cold is not shown when taken as a whole with rain at times more likely than snow for many.

 

UKMO today closes it's run next Thursday with deep Low pressure West of Ireland with an unstable Southerly flow over the UK ranging from SE in the North and SW in the South. There will be troughs moving up across the UK at times with showers or longer spells of rain in average temperatures.

 

GEM today looks disturbingly wet this morning as a seemingly never ending series of Low pressure areas slide SE across Southern Britain with rain bands incessantly affecting these areas. In addition there is some cold air entrapped within this complex setup with no doubt some snowfall for some areas turning up at times, especially towards the North and later elsewhere.

 

NAVGEM shows Low pressure slipping South over Ireland late next week with rain in abundance especially across the South and West with temperatures largely close to average.

 

ECM shows Low pressure slipping South from Western Britain to France and Spain with a chillier Easterly flow setting up later with the wet weather gradually giving way to drier weather but rather grey and overcast with the most likely pattern being that some light sleety showers would be possible, especially in the South with some frost developing over the North as skies gradually clear.

 

The ECM 10 day Mean Chart shows little hope for those seeking cold as this morning's mean edges the UK trough even further East to lie down Eastern Britain and the North sea with an Azores High influence shown possible with time. This pattern locks any cold weather the other side of the North Sea and receding.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream continues to look it is going to sink South over Europe next week in response to rising pressure over the North of Europe.

 

In Summary the weather still looks like being depressingly wet for many next week as the normal progression of depressions from the Atlantic Eastwards is thwarted by rising pressure to the NE. This means that the slow moving nature of these features will provide plenty of opportunity for rain bearing troughs to become slow moving across the UK and bringing plenty of cloudy and gloomy weather to most areas. Late in the period the weather could turn somewhat colder as there is some indication of low pressure slipping to the South and opening the door to something from the East to flood West over Britain though a major wintry outbreak looks unlikely from this morning's pattern.

[UV-RAY]

I was going to highlight how Gibby's post was in the wrong thread..............But after reading it maybe not.

Edited January 10, 2014 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Biggin]

Just come in here for a groan moan.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ok thats it. Same time tommorrow ???

[Weather-history]

According to joe bastardi

Cold, snow on the way to northwest Europe in coming weeks. Party is about over as far as mild weather goes

Don't see concrete evidence of this.

[MP-R]

Looks like we're going to end up in a sort of no-man's land for at least the first half of next week - neither mild nor cold. So, yes, rather boring weather continues for the foreseeable. On the plus side, less rain and periods of more than 24 hours without rain will allow many places to dry out. About time!

 

In fact, having just seen the reliable timeframe of the GFS 06Z, it's having nothing of any cold next week.

Edited January 10, 2014 by MP-R

[Peter H]

Not looking good now for next week unfortunately

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

According to joe laminate flooriCold, snow on the way to northwest Europe in coming weeks. Party is about over as far as mild weather goesDon't see concrete evidence of this.

He's talking out of his butt,again.

Meanwhile jonathen powell talking of a blanket of snow next week,wakey wakey jonathen.

Him and James madden, i mean,seriously,does ANYONE read the guff they sprout year in year out.If they had any whiff of decency they'd take a hike and leave forecasting to the pro's....

[UV-RAY]

Another easterly and another fail. The only way to get decent cold to our shores and for all of the UK is via heights over Greenland, the last two winters have both produced a Scandi high and neither of them have produced a cold and snowy set up IMBY. Every year we get suckered into Easterlies they are without doubt bobbins and 9/10 fail to deliver nationwide, or at all. 

Edited January 10, 2014 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Another easterly and another fail. The only way to get decent cold to our shores and for all of the UK is via heights over Greenland, the last two winters have both produced a Scandi high and neither of them have produced a cold and snowy set up IMBY. Every year we get suckered into Easterlies they are without doubt bobbins and 9/10 fail to deliver nationwide, or at all. 

Agreed 100%

Greeny highs are far more favourable for most.

Scandy highs,meh!

[sundog]

Another easterly and another fail. The only way to get decent cold to our shores and for all of the UK is via heights over Greenland, the last two winters have both produced a Scandi high and neither of them have produced a cold and snowy set up IMBY. Every year we get suckered into Easterlies they are without doubt bobbins and 9/10 fail to deliver nationwide, or at all. 

Indeed regards my location aswell,easterlies promise more then they deliver imo. I used to get suckered into easterlies and get excited by them,however at this stage ive learned from experiance not to get too excited by them . I would take a greenland high anytime over a scandi one. With a Greenland high its usually just that much easier to get the cold but with scandi highs it all seems like huff and puff and everything has to be just right to get a proper wintry spell.

[cobbett]

J Maddens last twitter entry on 8th Jan

Here comes the widespread snow and cold - as forecast before all standard meteorologists

 

will be Interesting to see his next one !

 

 

 

He has some disgruntled followers - last reply to that was

 

"You have been forecasting #uksnow for 40+ days. "F eck all so far "    

Edited January 10, 2014 by cobbett

[The PIT]

Joe says the same forecast every year. Ever so often he gets it right as you will. Anyway we know that it's J Madden's fault for sending the tweet.

[SomeLikeItHot]

J Maddens last twitter entry on 8th Jan

Here comes the widespread snow and cold - as forecast before all standard meteorologists

 

will be Interesting to see his next one !

 

Forecasting it before all standard meterologists is easy. Forecasting it correctly however is another thing.

[joggs]

I truly believe this is just the start of the pattern and the more amplified pattern emerging over north america nxt wk WILL draw the vortex away to west greenland with resulting heights left behind,been trawling through charts of scandi high scenarios and apart from them that sink the majority stay in situ or strenghten and retrogress.Cant post charts on my mobile but where the models are modelling the main vortex over the arctic(if right) i can only see it been tugged away from greenland over the next 7/10 days imho.Watch for cracking output by wed nxt wk and the cold will hit i feel after nxt wkend,thats working on an ave time given all the charts i scrolled through last night.4 hours of making notes lol.

[mountain shadow]

Madden, Powell, Laminate Floori, they will say exactly the same thing next year to get the publicity.

 

How many tweets do we see on here forecasting mild & rain? Exactly, not very many.

 

The Met Office aint perfect, but they are, by a long margin, the best forecasters for North Western Europe.

Edited January 10, 2014 by mountain shadow

[Carl46Wrexham]

Can we just sling this autumn "winter" straight in the rubbish bin where it belongs?

 

I'm actually already looking forward to Spring....just sums up just how diabolically bad a season it has been. The clock is ticking...each day gets just a little longer.....

 

I refuse to call it winter because it has been nothing remotely resembling winter in any way shape or form. Just relentless October-November style crap.

[MR EXTREMES]

if im honest im looking forward to next winter,

and I expect this summer will be hot and sunny with easterly winds due to Greenland blocking.

 

that's two failed easterlys this winter already!

remember November just gone yeah still got the chart on my computer and that was a huge scandi block looked certain!

 

then it was all over and then we entered the monsoon season with Christmas 2013 being remembered for the wrong reasons.

 

with any luck we will soon start entering a deep solar minimum,

I found ironic was back in sept October novemeber and ever since solar output doubled with solar flux doubling ,

 

but from my eyes it seemed to have a knock on effect west qbo very cold vortex and strong more northerly jet stream,

but back when the sun was spotless we started to see the colder winters arrive not saying this winter has been above normal but nothing on 08/09 /09/10 even 11/12 was not like this winter.

 

even a week of snow on the ground is something!

 

this year so far looks like being snowless for us in the south!.

 

and yeah im moaning because its not been snowless here since 08!,

and the models this year have been awful cross model deep cold from the east 24hrs later gone vanished,

 

how the hell can every model give strong northern and north eastern blocking and completely make it vanish its like a hudini magic trick.

 

I wrote of this winter at the start,,

 

been slated for it!

 

I don't know why because I read carefully what more experienced weather experts blending factors together to make my own ideas on the up and coming winter!

 

so far I been right but not right in any above average ideas I put across!!!

 

really over all its pretty average although above if you take the winters of the 80s into account.

 

I don't see things changing dramatically and will be interested to see if chinos punt on feb cold comes good, although even if it don't once again theres more info that can be taken to learn better skills when coming to seasonal forecast.

 

its always a pleasure to read the more experienced posters ideas and if it was not for them then net weather would not be the site it is today.

 

but this winter has been rubbish and I expect will continue the same relaxation of the alantic will come of coarse but will it be to late........to be continued....

[MR EXTREMES]

but I do chuckle at the posters names. lol bad wind and wet n dry sounds like a film about a night on the town lol curry bad wind and meeting a nice fresh lady at a club  wet a dry lol  

Edited January 10, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Jimmyh]

this it will snow it wont snow reminds me of the bbc site years ago to discuss snow which they eventually closed down

[conor123]

I swear 850hPa temps have hovered between -2 and +3 the entire winter so far, looks like my prediction of the Scandi high ending up in Russia in the end was unfortunately right, may as well start looking for cold spells in the Mid Atlantic instead considering everything ends up over a thousand miles east in the end.

[Coast]

 

Quote

Winter lurks but may not pounce just yet

 

A few days ago, I wrote a blog about hints that winter proper may be about to pounce on us next week, as the UK found itself caught in the middle of a battle between cold air to the east and mild air to the west.  At that point, it looked as if the weather computer models were favouring the colder air to win, with lower temperatures and snow a possibility.

 

However, I did point out that there was still some uncertainty and that the detail could change, which it indeed has.Temperatures now look likely to return to close to average, rather than anything notably cold, which does reduce the risk of snow.

 

Why such uncertainty?

 

In situations where cold and warm air collides, weather computer models can often struggle to grasp the fine detail as to precisely where the boundary of cold and warm air will lie. This is particularly true when such changes are slow in comparison to the usual haste in which weather across the UK normally progresses. One notable change has been the orientation of low pressure to the west of the UK early next week. Initially it stretched north west to south east, which would have favoured an eventual change to cold easterly winds and high pressure.

 

However, now it looks like the orientation of low pressure will be more north to south, favouring a less cold south to south easterly wind and high pressure staying to the east of the UK.

 

Rain and flood risk continues 

 

One consequence of the subtle changes for next week is that weather fronts will now make greater progress across the UK than they would have if high pressure had become established. This means that further bands of rain will move in off the Atlantic, bringing more wet weather at a time when it really isn’t needed, given that the ground is saturated and river levels are still high. Whilst it is still a little early to be sure about which places will see more rain and exactly how much, it may be a case of having taken one step forward and two steps back.

 

 

http://blogs.channel.../5643#more-5643

 

Thank you Liam!  

[Coast]

Hmm...so some pretty big changes model wise in less than a 48hour period?

 

It can catch out anyone. Here is Paul Hudson's blog from Wednesday:

 

All change with first taste of winter possible next week

Wednesday 8 January 2014, 15:33

 

Forty-eight hours can be a long time in weather forecasting, and since I wrote my blog on Monday there’s been a growing trend for colder air to start influencing our weather from the near continent next week. The award for the biggest flip-flop goes to the American GFS model which has performed an impressive volte-face in the last forty-eight hours. As I’ve explained before, each model is run many times, with slightly different initial atmospheric conditions. This allows forecasters to judge how likely a particular scenario is; in other words it gives us a level of confidence.

 

Currently, around sixty percent of the solutions from the European (ECMWF) model suggest that cold air from the east will win the battle against the milder Atlantic air that has been with us for virtually the whole of winter so far. For other models the percentage of cold solutions is around fifty percent. So at this stage although colder weather next week is more likely than not,  it’s by no means a done deal and caution is required – particularly in light of the big jump from the GFS model since Monday.

 

In my twenty years as a forecaster I have seen many a cold easterly scenario turn into a figment of the computer’s imagination, with a flip-flop the other way to a milder scenario always a possibility. That said, the European model is often the most reliable, and there has been a definite trend towards this colder scenario in the last few runs of computer models. Whatever the final outcome, next week is likely to cause real headaches for forecasters, trying to determine just which air-mass will win, and where the battle between cold and mild air takes place. Where that battle takes place, there will be a risk of some snow.

 

And let’s not forget, there will also be a risk of heavy rain, which could further exacerbate the flooding situation affecting parts of the UK. So changes are afoot, but there’s still much uncertainty which could last for a few days yet.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/All-change-with-first-taste-of-winter-possible-next-week

[Coast]

We can leave the toy throwing out of pram frenzy for now then! Until I dunno, June ish...

 

Well the Daily Excess did headline 6 months of the worst Winter ever - it could happen.....

Edited January 10, 2014 by Coast

[Mapantz]

What Mr Hudson didn't mention there (which he did on Twitter) is that the odds of an easterly have sharply reduced, the Met Office have the odds of such scenario at only 10%

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I'd give the odds of an easterly less than 1% in the next fortnight.

What an absolutely diabolical GFS 12Z.

Seeing as its the moaning thread i'd just like to say this has been the worst winter i can ever remember,god we are paying for a nice summer!